1/1/10 - Derby Dozen and more
 

New Year’s Day Derby Dozen – Only 120 days until the Run for the Roses


1- Super Saver – Set stakes record in G2 KJC and has unlimited potential.
2- Walking the Beach – Eye popping debut as he won under wraps after running like a drunken sailor most of the way. Entered on 1/3/10 at the Fair Grounds.
3- Conveyance – Made short work of MSW and Alw company in Cali, but must prove he can rate as he tries two turns.
4- Nordic Truce - http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ihs5UoBxoEo – Not sure what he beat in debut, but he did it with style. Many will scratch their head with this seeding, but you must watch the replay.
5- Buddy’s Saint – G2 Remsen winner looks good, but the speed figures say he’s ordinary at best. Fountain of Youth the target.
6- Jackson Bend – Dominated the competition at Calder and now Zito will help him get to the Derby.
7- Afleet Express – Definitely had the WOW factor in debut at Aqueduct. Training for next start at Gulfstream.
8- Winslow Homer – Focusing on the Fountain of Youth after displaying some talent as a 2yo.
9- Lookin At Lucky – 2yr old champ extremely professional, just not flashy.
10- Take Control – Regally bred (By AP Indy out of Azeri) and looked like a Freight Train in debut win on 12/30/09 at Santa Anita.
11- Rule – Captured the Delta Jackpot and yet another talented runner owned by WinStar.
12- Maximus Ruler – Big boy showed his close 3rd at 52-1 was no fluke after he took down Alw company as a maiden in 2nd start.


Others to consider:


American Lion – G3 Hollywood Prevue winner will just have to take to the dirt.
Drosselmeyer – WinStar runner crushed maidens while geared down on 11/18/09 at CD.
Connemera – Half to Lion Heart opened eyes in last to 1st win at Turfway.
Guys Reward – Finished a strong 2nd to Maximus Ruler at CD.
Dryfly – Whiting pointing to the Smarty Jones on 1/18/10 at Oaklawn after CD victory.
Concord Point – Baffert runner made it look easy in debut at Santa Anita (93 BSF).
Aikenite – 5th in BC Juvenile and he deserves respect.
Eskendereya – Pilgram winner had a rough time of it in the BC Juvenile.
Dave in Dixie – Sadler taking his time with him and pointing to stakes at Santa Anita.
Fly Down – Zito runner should appear at Gulfstream after nice maiden score at Churchill Downs.
Lost Apitude – Connections should still consider Fountain of Youth after his 2nd in Tropical Park Derby.
Global Force – Beat Buddy’s Saint and should not be ignored.
Take Turns – By Seeking the Gold and should only get better with more distance.
Soldier Field - Gutsy maiden win.

Didnt Linda Rice train a horse named Soldier Field a few years ago?

Yes - he was 3rd to Favorite Trick and Cowboy Dan in the WHAS 11 on the Silver Charm-Captain Bodgit Derby undercard.

He won a bunch of stake races as well.

Who are the sires of 2 and 4 on your list?

Medaglia D'Oro and Yes It's True.

His 4th rated horse has an entirely european female family and has yet to run on the dirt.

Thanks Kev

Ok I think I remember the 2, he was like 8-1 morning line as a first time starter at Churchill and won at around 9-5 from off the pace, he could be the goods.

No Prob Gus, but I erased it as Druggie posted it prior to me. Nordic Truce will be interesting. He sure looked good winning, but will he take to the dirt?

Has Global Force worked?
I know a few people around here who think Statley Victor is a FREAK. At least 3 different people have told me he came out of his last sick/in bad shape, and the problems are corrected now.

You would think as anal as they are about names they would have kept this one on the shelf a little longer

Not sure, but Clement should give it a shot.

Nice list. That Nordic Truce debut was pretty awesome.

I wasn't overly impressed with the Azeri colt.

Do the problems with Stately Victor involve getting off the juice? That takes a while to recover from.

Well, I can see where this thread is gonna be going soon!

Probably not as well as he takes to turf.

Looking at this years group - they all have questions that need to be answered... obviously some of them are a whole lot bigger than others.

I've never been a big fan of making lists this early .. because they all have so much improving to do to get at a level on par with your average Derby winner of years past.

Not to knock Bogey's list ... but Discreetly Mine wasn't even one of the 26 horses he's named ... and he's a perfect 2-for-2 in head-to-head matches against Super Saver .. whom he rated #1.

I realize Super Saver dominated the Kentucky Jockey Club impressively - but he was left isolated on an unpressured lead - I have a hard time believing Discreetly Mine wouldn't have done about the same with that exact same trip.

Super Saver isn't a silly #1 either .. he just has some real questions to answer about running style and a lot more improving to do.

I bet some of the old timers got really confused seeing Tenacious run at Fair Grounds today.

The weirdest one I remember like that was with Willa On The Move.

Willa On The Move got a Grade 1 win in the 1988 Ashland and was 3rd in the Kentucky Oaks.

Willa On The Move - spelled exactly the same way but obviously a different horse - ran a distant 2nd to You in the Grade 1 Acorn than won a Graded Stake at Saratoga in the Honorable Miss.

In fact, Willa On The Move's dam is a half sibling to two Grade 1 winners .. one being Will's Way and the other being Willa On The Move.

When you think about it ... it's kind of weird saying Willa On The Move is a half sister to the mother of Willa On The Move.

Here's another to add to your list: Tiz Chrome. He's trained by Baffert. Broke his maiden first out at Churchill and won a small stake in his last start out west. My early Derby Horse!

What has Connemera done since his debut? Has he raced again or has anybody read where he is being pointed? I thought his debut was really something special.

He worked at Santa Anita last Sunday (12/27/09) in 1:01 2/5