Lava Man and the Pac Classic.
 

with Lava Man being all out last time to hold off Ace Blue, does anyone feel that he is vulnerable on Sunday? He has clearly dominated his opponents in his other races this year, but did not look the same horse in the Hollywood Gold Cup. Was that race mainly a result of his stumbling a bit at the the start, or is he beggining to tire a bit?

Anyone gonna try and beat him at what will surely be very short odds?

It is a tough call. He looks like he might be ready to tire like he did last year, but I don't like any of these to beat him. Perfect Drift and Giacomo are (in my opinion) his two main competitors and I don't really like either of them to win it here either. Perfect Drift will obviously run his usual solid race and it will be good enough for place or show and while you are right about Lava Man being all out to win his last, so was Giacomo, and of those two Lava Man is FAR more consistent. And like you say LM had a tough start in his last. Some people say that the 8.5f wasn't Giac's best distance and that he wants to go 10f. I'm not so sure about that. I mean yeah he did win the Derby but that race completely fell apart and he wasn't exactly flying at the end. He is by Holy Bull and I actually think that like his sire 8.5f-9f might be his best distance. Lava Man might be ready to throw out a clunker, but I don't think so. I predict that he wins everything he runs in until the BCC and then finishes off the board in that one.

Lava Man seems like a different horse this year. A win is a win even though his win against Ace Blue wasn't pretty, he still won. Last year, I think he would have lost. Rider change to Nakatani, I think was a positive. He seems to be giving him the patient ride he needs and not trying to blow the competitioin away like he did last year.

Thanks for the input guys. These are the kind of discusions that make this board so much fun.

Ok...I know the draw isn't until tonight and Papi Chullo is out. We all know that Perfect Drift and Giacomo are gonna be hanging out at the back of the race and both will come running. That being said, he is going to go up front with Lava Man and put some pressure on him?

I just can no bet against or root against this horse Kev. His stumbling in his last race threw him off from his normal style, he was ridden very well, took control and was able to hold off a horse who had a perfect trip. He won the race. Lots of horses would have folded. He is a true warrior. I hope he romps home here and puts another feather in his cap. Hes going to make an outstanding horse of the year. A real people's horse. Its about time.

Tim, I was awake at about 2:30 this morning, so I decided to log onto calracing and watch his races from this year. I really gained a whole new respect for him last night. He just kept turning back all challengers and winning by wide margins. You know how much I love horses with big hearts like that and he clearly has a very big heart. I was just curious as to what everyone thought about his last race. I figure to get a wide variety of answers. He did look like a different horse in his last, where he stumbled. I am just curious if he is beatable at a short price.

Tri box: PD/Giacomo/LM

I have a sneaky feeling Giacomo is going to shock us again. I think Lava is tired (But I am admitting that right now this horse is HOY in my book so I am not bashing him), PD is going to hit the front and Giacomo is going to come with his run. Whether or not he will get by Drifty I don't know, kinda afraid he will, but I am hoping not. Lava will be a half length behind PD. This is just a senerio in my head.

Scenario, or dream??? LOL...Have to admire your dedication to PD, but he hasn't won in two years and I don't see things changing this weekend. I certainly see him 2nd or 3rd, as usual, but hard to endorse him on top. You would think by now that people would LOAD UP on PD in the place and show pools, yet they continue to still throw $$$ at him in the win pool. How he went off at even money to me at Arlington a few weeks ago still boggles my mind. Hard to knock the old fella for still running and the connections are lucky to have a horse that keeps making them money in big races. PD always runs his game, that you can count on, but the only problem is that his game is 2nd or 3rd place.

My confusion is whether do take the all/ drift/ all trifecta, or the all/ all/ drift trifecta.:confused: :p :p :confused:

they are both clearly the smartest bets to make.

I liked what his trainer had to say about him in that bloodhorse article yesterday. I really like this horse. He does have a tendency to get caught in the final strides (which is why Giacomo scares me). Oh a horse scares me uh-oh!

Also, Magnum. What do you all make of this horse?

Kev- Every horse is beatable. Just check out this list of horses who lost this year at Saratoga, some not even remotely competitive (granted you may have been against or for some of these but they all figured to be real tough):
Songster, Wild Fit, Relaxed Gesture, Rewrite, Magical Ride, FLower Alley, Artie Schiller. Those just the obvious ones.

Sure Lava Man could lose. But if you dont have a concrete opinion on 1 or 2 horses that can logically beat him, why not just skip the race and just watch and root for this unbelieveable animal? Theres a million other races to bet between now and then. I think he romps in here.

Sitting on his best. This is the horse that I will play to beat them all. Magnums last race was a bazzare ride from P.Val and he will get Alex Solis this time. He's going to sit off the pace and try to nail them at the wire.

GPK, Now that you have a new respect for Lava Man, What do you think about the weight differance in his last race? The Pacific Classic is at equal weights. They will all carry 124 lbs. I really think it will be hard to beat him without someone really stepping up thier game.

The more I think about it, and I doubt my thoughts will change once I see the PP's. it may just be a great race to sit back and watch instead of wagering. Should be fun to watch PD give his fans a glimpse of hope again before finishing 2nd or 3rd.

He may go off at 4/5 and if he does, its not really a bad win bet. All the others just seem to have a long resume of excuses, all Lava Man does is win. Hes a breath of fresh air in a sport filled with horses having excuses every time they lose.

I will be one of the "morons" throwing money in the win pool for PD. He's eventually going to win and this may be it. :p

Last year Lava Man had a class speed horse named Surf Cat pushing him to suicidal fractions during the early part of the race. Is that likely to happen again? Can't know until we see the entries. I should point out that the Man was still right with the closers at the end, despite the fractions - he ran a great race in defeat.

Lava Man's stumbling start in the Gold Cup took him out of his game, which is usually on the lead, or lapped on the leader. Some horses would have had a panic attack (War Emblem in the Belmont), but he didn't and pulled off a win anyway, giving weight all around. That's what good horses do - win (or at least finish close up), even when everything goes wrong.

Kev,

I think he loses on Sunday.

Who do you like Rand? If you don't want to give it out in public, PM me. I will keep it between you and I.