12/10: Hollywood (3rd-8th)
 

Hollywood carryover was chalk-filled, and I failed to adjust to two scratches which impacted the two races I missed in the play (3rd & 7th). While the $1,364 payout wasn't anything life-changing, you have to put yourself in the best position to capitalize on opportunities, and my poor ticket was a waste of $224 as a result. Not having You Can Dream and Usurp on the ticket after the scratches of Southern Orchid and Mighty Joe has no reasonable excuse. And having them puts you in the hunt for a big reward had any of a number of price horses jumped up somewhere and won. Did have some tri/super hits that defrayed day's multi-race blunder. Hope you did OK.


HOLLYWOOD


POST-SCRATCHES


3rd: MSW, 2yo-F, 8.5f (P6, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #3 Crisp 5-2 WON
Best Value: #4 Empire Spring 3-1 3rd
Next Best: #6 Fashion Trend 8-5 2nd


4th: CLM, 3yo, 7.5f (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #5 Final Journey 3-1 6th
Best Value: #6 Remus 6-1 WON
Next Best: #2 Green Card James 5-1 2nd
Super Add: #3 Barney Bass 5-1 5th


5th: Cal-bred MSW, 3+, 1m-T (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #9 Hot Damon 9-5 2nd
Best Value: #1 Bernsie's Baby 10-1 6th
Next Best: #3 Checkmark 5-2 3rd
Super Add: #8 Next of Kendra 6-1 WON


6th: CLM, F&M-3+, 5.5f (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #2 Swiss Blend 4-1 WON
Next Best: #11 Misty Aly 3-1 2nd
Best Value: #8 Cape Moonlight 10-1 7th
Super Add: #5 Dona Mary 15-1 3rd


7th: S/ALW, 2yo-F, 6.5f (DD)

Most Likely: #5 Tenacious Tina 8-5 WON
Next Best: #4 Seedless 5-2 3rd
Best Value: #3 Jocata 3-1 2nd


8th: MDN CLM, F&M-3+, 6.5f (Super, Super High 5)

Most Likely: #7 Madame Striker 2-1 4th
Best Value: #1 Warren's Sweetheart 8-1 2nd
Next Best: #4 Foxy Approval 4-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #8 Daniella Roth 6-1 WON
High 5 Play: #6 Lava Flow 20-1 6th


<$75 P4 Play:

5: 1-3-9
6: 2-11
7: 3-4-5
8: 1-4-7-8

3x2x3x4 = $72


Good luck!
Steve

I handicapped today's Hollywood card as well, primarily to be prepared for the pk 6 if we would have had another carryover.

Since that's not the case, I'm just putting in a little pick 4 ticket. It could be another very chalky day.

5th - Going deep here, only to scrounge for any possible value that might exist in this pk 4 sequence. Hot Damon could win for fun, but under-achieving as the chalk last out and an uneventful barn change is enough to fish for prices.

9 - Hot Damon
3 -Checkmark
1 - Bernsie's Baby
6 - Absolutlypositivly SCRATCHED
5 - Raymanjjohnsonjr
2 - Soul Candy

6th Not sure what was amiss with the 6 horse Truthy this fall, but felt compelled to include her, hoping blinkers, cut back in distance, barn change and 3 promising works help turn things around. After all, these are 8K claimers. Anything is possible.

2 - Swiss Blend
11 - Misty Aly
1 - Haven's Lake
6 - Truthy

7th - Singling the 5. A couple others figure, but Jocata shouldn't even be eligible for this level. She only won her debut after a Mitchell maiden tragically went down as she was coasting to the finish line as the sure winner.

5 - Tenacious Tina


8th - Relucantly including the 7, Madame Striker, assuming she had a valid excuse in last race, her first after a year on the shelf. With no works since last race on Nov. 20, you have to be leary of her ability to win this with prior history of layoffs and declining form.


3 - Smartysideup SCRATCHED
7 - Madame Striker


Edited with Scratches: 5x4x1x1 = $20

Good luck.

If Madame Striker doesnt win the 8th it is wide open. Might be a 5 yr old Bouccaneer - Lava Flow...timely with Lava Man coming back

Just saw that SmartySideup is scratched..so yes..
if Madame Striker isn't right, it's a total crap shoot.

late pic 4 stab

3-6-9/7-8-11/5/3-4-7-8

$36

late P4

changing up a bit -

2,3,7,9//1,2,10,11//5//4,7

32.00

my ticket
5)2,5,8,9
6)1,2,4,10
7)4,5
8)6,7
$64

This is 12/10 right?;)

Come on long lost cousin of lava man....lava flow!!!!

crap....

Good god, did I blow this P4 today. Paid an insane $558. Don't know why I didn't go ahead and single in that nothing feature.

Steve,

hindsight is 20/20; it's tough to rely on singles sometimes in this game. thanks for all your advice, i'm sure everyone here appreciates it!