11/12: Aqueduct (P4); Churchill ($30k C/O)
 

Fun start to the week with good racing and some solid hits. P4's and Churchill carryover tries were short, but $300+ triple and $100+ saver P3 to close Louisville punts put the day right. The big opportunity on the afternoon was the Big A quad which paid a bulbous $2,100+. The singling of Mott-Dominguez feature flop Sky's the Limit (1-2!) was the culprit in the miss, and stung particularly when my Best Value second choice (Rodman) romped home at $12.

I pressed action at Churchill because there was a similar opening in the late stages at Aqueduct of which I didn't take advantage. I failed to bet Rodman straight, didn't have a late P3 play going ($187.50), and didn't play the selections in the nightcap tri ($112.50). Uggh... Got out OK for the day though as cited, and hope you did alright too. Carryover reached $30k+ at Churchill for today, and Aqueduct has a challenging sequence worth trying.


AQUEDUCT


POST-SCRATCHES


6th: CLM, 3+, 6f (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #2 Working Class Hero 6-5 4th
Best Value: #9 Lion's Lair 5-1 8th
Next Best: #4 Call Tiger 8-1 WON
Super Add: #5 Trusting Heart 15-1 7th


7th: The Sabin, F&M-3+, 8.5f-T (P3, DD, Super)

Scratches allow prominent players Cable and Diamond Dina to get in..

Most Likely: #8 Sea Chanter 3-1 WON
Next Best: #12 Cable 7-2 6th
Best Value: #9 Always for Love 8-1 5th
Exotics Use: #7 Sunshine for Life 5-1 8th


8th: CLM, 3+, 6f (DD, Super)

Most Likely: #5 Base Commander 3-1 WON
Next Best: #7 Gone Missing 6-1 2nd
Best Value: #3 Mr. Madison 8-1 4th
Super Add: #9 Mr. Unstoppable 10-1 3rd

$2 Exacta (5-7) Paid $26.60
$2 Trifecta (5-7-9) Paid $158.50
$1 Superfecta (5-7-9-3) Paid $644.00


9th: NYB-MSW, 2yo-F, 8.5f-T (Super)

Most Likely: #7 Great Gracie Dane 7-2 WON
Best Value: #1 Foof's Melody 12-1 5th
Next Best: #12 Holy Moly 5-1 4th
Super Add: #4 Every Little Thing 6-1 8th


<$75 P4 Play:

6: 2-4-5-9
7: 8-9-12
8: 5-7
9: 1-7-12

4x3x2x3 = $72

$1 Pick 4 (4-8-5-7) Paid $414.50



CHURCHILL DOWNS


POST-SCRATCHES


5th: CLM, 2yo, 5f-T (P6, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #9 Proud Expression 5-1 8th
Best Value: #6 Phil the Thrill 10-1 2nd
Next Best: #5 Girl Bar 5-2 WON
Super Add: #2 Mis Pardner Rules 5-1 6th


6th: CLM/N3L, 3+, 6f (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #3 The Right Face 4-1
Best Value: #4 Linebacker 8-1 4th
Next Best: #10 Hidden Bay 5-1 WON
Super Add: #1 Keepinonestepahead 6-1 2nd


7th: MDN CLM, 2yo, 6.5f (.50 P4, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #4 Cosmic Transit 3-1 9th
Best Value: #6 Nehru 12-1 3rd
Next Best: #1 Sporty 10-1 4th
Super Add: #7 Greytap 8-1 6th


8th: ALW/N1X, F&M-3+, 6f (P3, DD, Super)

Best Value: #3 Honchis'n Ponchis 10-1 WON
Most Likely: #11 Film Charm 5-2 3rd
Next Best: #1 Sweetest Song 3-1 4th
Super Add: #5 Argyle Pink 3-1 7th


9th: OC/C, F&M-3+, 5f-T (DD, Super)

Most Likely: #5 Libor Lady 2-1 WON
Best Value: #2 Don'ttalktome 5-1 3rd
Next Best: #10 Taletobetold 4-1
Super Add: #9 Dee's Rose 15-1


10th: CLM, 3+, 6f (Super, Super High 5)

Most Likely: #3 Malibu Martini 5-2 2nd
Best Value: #12 Chaffee John 15-1 3rd
Next Best: #11 Snuck By 8-1 9th
Exotics Use: #5 Crazy Coyote 9-2 6th
High 5 Play: #13 Hyrule 10-1 4th


<$200 P6 Play:

5: 6-9
6: 3-4
7: 1-4-6-7
8: 1-3-11
9: 2-5
10: 3

2x2x4x3x2x1 = 96 x $2 = $192


<$75 P4 Play:

7: 1-4-6-7
8: 1-3-11
9: 2-5-10
10: 3-5-11-12

4x3x3x4 = 144 x .50 = $72


Good luck!
Steve

AQU SCR/CHG'S:
http://www.equibase.com/premium/changes/AQU-changes.asp


7TH

2 Maddy's Heart Early
5 Dattts Our Girl Early
10 Little B Rosson Early
13 Wonderwho'sbest Early
14 Yet Again Early



8TH

1 (poe) Courting Wisdom Early



9TH

1A Count Her In Early
9 Precious Penny Early
11 Northern Warrior Early
13 Downtown Hottie Early
14 Freud's Notebook Early
15 Nurse Dolce Early

Both are very dangerous.

CD SCR/CHG'S:
http://www.churchilldowns.com/racing...rogram-changes


RACE 5 - PICK SIX BEGINS - SEVEN-DAY CARRYOVER $30,534

Jockey Change #1 Fair Oak - Israel Ocampo

Overweight #2 Miss Pardner Rules +1

SCRATCH #4 Rib Mountain

Overweight #5 Girl Bar +1


RACE 6

NO CHANGES


RACE 7 - LATE PICK 4 BEGINS (50-CENT MINIMUM WAGER)

SCRATCH #2 Donegal's Pride


RACE 8

SCRATCH #2 Sweet Gladys

SCRATCH #6 Embellished Gold


RACE 9

SCRATCH AE #11 Ten Lil Indians (entered for main track only)


RACE 10 - SUPER HI-5 - CARRYOVER $5,609

Late Workout #6 G Areyoukidding - Oct. 24, Turfway Park, 4F in :50 1/5, breezing

SCRATCH #8 Extreme Warrior

Late Workout #11 Snuck By - Nov. 7, Ellis Park, 4F in :49, breezing

AE #13 Hyrule will run

Jockey Change #13 Hyrule - Israel Ocampo

Late Workout #13 Hyrule - Nov. 7, Turfway Park, 4F in :50, breezing

SCRATCH AE #14 Joe Six Pack

The 4 in the 6th could prove very valuable in the pick 4. A ton of tickets hit the floor with that piece o' junk favorite- the double to Sea Chanter paid $92.

nice hit at aqua!!

Thx BA... Today was the inverse of yesterday. AQU carried the investments. P4 was solid and the triple in the 8th was nice as I had it 1.5X. I'm as entertained by this action as I am the Cup... LOL..

Great job at the Big A today SB!!!!!!!!!Made threefold error by at the last moment excluding $98 horse @CD, costing me two juicy pk3s, and by not sending in my pk4 at Aqueduct which had many key components of your selections which obviously hit. I hate it when real work screws up my concentration!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!Uggh:zz:

steve nice hit at the big a , do you think the Alexander horse is a bet back when he comes back (maybe GP) , looked like JC got in a little traffice trouble and the winner got an easy jump on him on the far turn

Thx Mart.. I thought Lakeside Chapel ran a very professional race for a FTS and didn't see any real traffic that seriously hampered her. It is turf racing after all. She did everything she was asked, and while she had no answer for the winner, stayed on very nicely. It's not easy to debut at two turns. I would think Alexander would want a chance to run her again before the lawn events stop if possible, because there won't be any NYB races in Florida.

forgot about the NYB part steve , we could see LC back very soon then