Pletchers Demise
 

Pletcher is the most successful trainer in the game today. But every trainer always comes down from the top. Pletcher is still young and has many more years of training to go. But what will be the reason for his demise? Lukas was the best there was in the 80's and 90's and we see where he is at today. So, what do you think will be the cause of Pletcher's fall? Like Lukas, I think once is assistants go on their own then he will hurt a little. I also think that perhaps burn out will play a role as well. What do you guys and gals think.

was just thinking it wasn't more than a few years ago Frankel was dominating every stakes race in America and breaking records, coming close to Lukas's win record for a year...since he's tapered off a bit...I think Pletcher will dominate for awhile, definately the rest of this decade, then who knows, maybe I'll take out my trainer's license and it will all be over, no wait I can't wake up at 4 am, it's unnatural~training is a tough life, Todd's married, I guess he'll make his money, win all the big races, then take it easy

You guys are delusional. Todds assitants are products of Todds. He taught them how to do what they do and do it the way he wants it. If you think they have a lot of rope to run with, you are sadly mistaken. Weaver was Todd's assistant and went on his own and Todd never missed a beat. there was a slight learning curve time for Seth benzel but he picked it up fast and rivals any assitant trainer in the land. Make no mistakes about it, Todd is running that show. Hes still so yound and still learning himself from his own mistakes. he will be the leading trainer as long as he trains. Hes more brilliant and talented than you realize.

So you are saying that he will dominate as long as he keeps training? That is a pretty bold statement to make.

Truly and odd topic in my opinion. I guess when you're on top people like to see you fall.

Doesn't surprise me I don't get it...I'm not mensa material which has been previously called out....lol

I dont want him to fall at all. I am just curious to see what people think will be his demise.

he's earned $17 mill this year, the next closest trainer is Scott Blasi, err, Steve Asmussen (with $7 mill)...all I was trying to say was he can make as much money as he wants in this sport, and basically his "demise" will be when he wants to stop doing this full-throttle, whenever that time may be

See this is how I feel too. I think burn out is what is going to get Todd. Lukas got crushed when his assistance left, Baffert had a slight decline once he got married. I think Pletcher is prob the best trainer in the history of the game. I think he will be his own demise.

Best trainer in the history of the game? Come on...do you think you might be getting a little carried away?

No trainer has gotten the stock over the last couple of years that Pletcher has. Its not even close.

Pletcher is a good trainer and his horses look great. He runs a first class operation. I would have a hard time saying that a trainer is "the best in the history of the game" when he hasnt won a classic.

He has won more races without Johnny V than with him I think their on a skid together:cool:

First of all, I think Lukas was really only on top for less than 10 years. Off the top of my head, he did great from about 1984-1992 or so. He is really the exception to the rule. Training is not like sports where guys have a great career that lasts for 10-15 years. Guys will often train for practically their whole lives. Guys like Frankel and Mandella have been doing great for over 25 years. You have guys like Whittingham and Stephens that were on top for over 40 years. Training is something that guys can do for a really long time.

There are some people that suspect that Pletcher may be cheating in some way. I have no idea whether he is or not. Assuming that he is not, I think that he will be around for a very long time. On the other hand, if he is cheating then his great run could end at any time. Actually, even if he does have some type of unfair edge and that edge ended tomorrow, he would probably still be near the top of the standings for a few more years because he's getting such good horses. That's kind of what happened to Lukas. I think Lukas only had his really big edge in terms of pharmacology up until about 1990 but he was getting such good horses that he stayed pretty hot for another 2-3 years before he started to really cool off. If you have enough success at one time, that can carry you for a really long time. As poorly as Lukas does these days, he still gets really good horses because people remember how well he used to do.

Thanks Rupert, a very fine post.

Agreed Rupert

Burnout is inevitable for trainers handling huge stables and putting in the hours demanded by competing at that level. Pletcher is still young and achieved his success at an age before most of the others. Considering his record in the Triple Crown and Breeders Cup, I think there is still a lot of desire in him to keep going at the current pace, but it is just about impossible to maintain for the long haul.

Todd looks pretty old for his age. Maybe all this is wearing on him. Unless like the guy who won American Idol, he is lying about his age. That dude Taylor Hicks claims hes like 30. Ya right. If hes 30, I am 18. Todd looks like hes about 45-47.

I think that Todd is about 38.

It's all about the horse's owners people. It only matters how good you are when you don't have the Tabors, Lewis's, Overbrook Farms, Mlyenk and many other high spenders. If you have endless high dollar horse flesh then you have a gold mine of winners.

I dont see how some of these guys can run such large stables so competitively. You have to have a lot of good people under you and eventually they are gonna break out on their own. I am partial to trainers with small powerful stables. I think this is the way to go, if I was an owner anyways. How Pletcher manages so many horses at a top level is a CEO feat. ANd not some lazy azz CEO. Pletcher has to be a good judge of other's character and work ethic. You have to be able to delegate with a stable this large. Assmussen is a guy who has taken quantity over quality. Too large, bad service. I should not have said this as I do not have a horse with Assmussen. Im sorry. But Ill keep it up anyway.

With Pletchers success, where does he fit in with his big money owners as far as picking out there purchases? I dont have any figures to back me up but arent most of his horses howmgrown or weanling or 2yr old purchases?