Derby Trail Forums - 10/7: Belmont Park ($52k C/O)

Race week opens with nice $52k+ C/O pot at Belmont though potential for early morning rain threatens the four grass races in the sequence. Addition of Keeneland to the venue lineup Friday sends fall championship season into overdrive with another 12 Gr. I races scheduled through Sunday. Hope you enjoyed Jockey Club Gold Cup Day and the historic win by Summer Bird. Lots to get excited by this week!

BELMONT PARK

POST-SCRATCHES

4th: MSW, 2yo-F, 1m-T (P6, P3, DD)

Runners exiting Spa closing day MSW dot this field, and seem to be hold keys to today's set. Pletcher runner DAD'S CRAZY, second to Hatheer that day, will SCR having already won Sunday's off/turf Miss Grillo with 69 Beyer. That leaves the other Pletcher (#2 Caminadora), Clement's #10 The West Rim, and Mott's #1a (POE) Pearly Blue from out of that September 7 affair to consider. Tagg's #9 Senada (3-1) exits a 9/2 upstate heat that has not yet produced any clues to the company she kept, but must be included today with Ramon riding back and 13f of sunrise semesters in tow. #4 Never Dream just missed in her debut with some trouble, but horses exiting that 9/3 race look rather tepid. ((NEW NOTE: With Far Isle scratching, add to a watch list and use Key Quality's performance in the 5th as a clue to how the Contessa starter will fair when she does return to the entrries.))

Best Value: #1e Mott entry 5-1 2nd/6th
Most Likely: #9 Senada 3-1 7th
Next Best: #10 The West Rim 4-1 5th
Exotics Use: #2 Caminadora 7-2 WON

5th: MDN CLM, 2yo-F, 6f-IT (G/S, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #5 Ms. Thanksgiving 9-5 WON
Next Best: #7 Key Quality 7-2 8th
Best Value: #6 Kittylicious 6-1 6th
Exotics Use: #4 Lion Cub 5-1 2nd

6th: NYB-MSW, 2yo, 8.5f-T (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #7 In Te Domine 8-5 2nd
Best Value: #5 Neversaywhen 10-1 8th
Next Best: #2 Eire's Run 4-1 4th
Super Add: #4 Silenced 10-1 WON

7th: CLM/N2L, 3+, 7f (P3, DD, Super)

Best Value: #8 Triple Honor 8-1 WON
Most Likely: #7 Cappella Reale 3-1 7th
Next Best: #9 Bordeaux Bandit 2-1 4th
Super Add: #5 Fast Draw 5-1 6th

8th: ALW/N1X, 3+, 8.5f (DD, Super)

Most Likely: #2 Stevil 5-2 WON
Best Value: #3 Success Fee 5-1 4th
Next Best: #7 Luv Gov 7-2 6th
Super Add: #1 Almighty Silver 12-1 2nd

9th: MDN CLM, 3+, 7f-T (Super)

Best Value: #1 Everybodywantsone 5-1 4th
Most Likely: #7 Native Mambo 3-1 WON
Next Best: #6 Jove 6-1 2nd
Super Add: #9 Delta Miner 8-1 8th

<$200 P6 Play:

4: 1-9
5: 5-6-7
6: 5-7
7: 7-8
8: 2-3
9: 1-7

2x3x2x2x2x2 = 96 x $2 = $192

<$75 P4 Play:

6: 5-7
7: 7-8-9
8: 2-3-7
9: 1-6-7-9

2x3x3x4 = $72

Good luck!
Steve