Weekend Beyers (Rachel 108)
 

BLACKBERRY PREAKNESS S.(G1)
RACHEL ALEXANDRA 108 (Previous 3 Beyers: 108-101-103)
Mine That Bird 106 (Previous 3 Beyers: 105-80-81)
Musket Man 106 (Previous 3 Beyers: 95-98-90)

HIRSCH JACOBS S.(G3): EVERYDAY HEROES 106
MckayTurfSprint: Mr. Nightlinger 102
WILLIAM DONALD SCHAEFER S.(G3): NO ADVANTAGE 100
LOS ANGELES H.(G3): RED ARROW 99
MARYLAND SPRINT H.(G3): RAVALO 98
DIXIE S.(G2): PARADING 97
SHUVEE H.(G2): SEATTLE SMOOTH 95
BLACK-EYED SUSAN S.(G2): PAYTON D'ORO 94
TheVeryOne: Smart and Fancy 94
GALLORETTE H.(G3): SOCIAL QUEEN 93
Woodlawn: Affirmatif 90
ALLAIRE DUPONT DISTAFF.(G2): SKYLIGHTER 86
Skipat: All Giving 86
MISS PREAKNESS S.(G3): HEART ASHLEY 84

Others:
MSW: Nicanor 100

I'll be curious if our resident figure guys put the Preakness figs as high as that.

Also, Nicanor has now run a faster fig than half the Ky Derby field has ever run.

--Dunbar

I don't pay much attention to figures at rarely run distances ... so I don't have much of an opinion on the Preakness figure.

Here's what I know about how the Beyer figures came back for the race ...

In a 13 horse field the horses racing 8th, 10th, 11th, 12th, and 13th early all ran new career tops .. four of the five ran big new career tops.

The horses who chased Rachel Alexandra all ran well below form .. and the ones who sat furthest off the pace all ran well above form.

She utterly fractured the tactical horses ... while the slowpokes, grinders, and one dimension closers who sat far enough off of the pace tood advantage of the pace setup to all run much better than expected.

Nicanor is a race horse.

Mike Matz is a total joke with first time starters .... and this horse had a legit excuse on top of that in his debut.

Nicanor's last 3 races have all been very solid.

Agree Doug, and I hope that Matz doesn't now confine him to turf just because he found a soft spot to get the diploma...

I'm not a resident figure guy, but Andy and I talked Saturday night and thought that the scale of the race appeared a bit lower... We had it at 104-105 from the top, based especially at the time on Musket Man and No Advantage.

But looking at the day in full, No Advantage, who came in with a career best 95, got a 100 in the Schaefer. (The day's other route was Skylighter getting a typical for her 86 winning the DuPont). The dead heat of Ea and Real Merchant, 2+ lengths back of No Advantage, may be the best indicators of the day as they came in off 103 and and 98 respectively.

Interested to see what Jerry Brown comes back with on the TG scale. To be honest, the lower numbers, (104-105 for Rachel, et al), seem to work pretty well for how the top finishers looked on the sheets coming in.

http://www.derbytrail.com/forums/sho...&postcount=112

I had it higher, but considering I matched up with Beyer's guy on the rest of the races, I may have a bad scale for 9.5F so I think it's a good number. Rarely run distances are tough.

I believe that was on the grass

Yes.. It was.. Which makes it an even more interesting number considering how rare 100+ turf Beyers are for three-year-olds this early.

I gave the Preakness a 104, with a pace of 119. I doubt the race could have been much faster given the pace.

I was impressed with Nicanor's last couple, but his 100 seems to be a guess. The other turf race had a 6 point different variant, and using the same would have given him a 94. Given the Nicanor race also had a very fast pace, a 100 seems a bit much.

Hey Steve, what did Underground get? She won the 4th Saturday at HP.

Thanks!

A big, fat 98..

I think the Preakness number is too high. It doesn't seem possible that Rachel Alexandra ran that fast given her overall trip. Plus, you also have to believe that both Mine That Bird and Musket Man improved off their Derby figs, Musket Man considerably, and I have trouble buying all of that together.

It's probably splitting hairs but 104 feels more accurate.

WOW, an ABSOLUTELY spot on analysis!!!

Hat's off, DrugS.

98?

So, let me get this straight.

A 3yo filly debuting goes 108.85.
The grade 3 stakes race just a few races later, with older males, got in 108.92.

The 3yo filly goes .07 faster yet gets a lower BSF of 98 compared to the 99 the older male got??????

Maybe the Derby fig was a touch high?

I think it's quite possible Musket Man actually improved off his Derby fig, MTB factoring ground loss I'm not sure if he could.

Regardless, the relationships on rarely run distances are tough to figure exactly. It was a great race out of RA and a good performance by MTB and Musket Man.

TG figure for RA is a 0. MTB receive a 0.5 and MM a 2.25.

JB obviously had the race slower than Beyer did.

Anyone know what Capt. Candyman got at CD?

99...he's now run four between 95 and 99 since his Hutcheson figure was lowered.

NT

Thanks, as usual, for the info.