Derby day underlays
 

CD 4th--Glenwood Canyon 5-2 m/l finally graduated in start number 9 by 8 at odds of 2-5. Been a beaten favorite in 3 of his last 5. He may hit the board but I'd book win money against him.

CD 8th--Elusive Lady 5-1 m/l Realistically, I doubt this filly will be lower than 10-1. She crawled on the lead in her 2 Tampa races and the pace scenario should be much more heated here. Also figures to get hung out wide on the first turn.

CD 9th--Informed Decision 9/5 m/l. The CD linemaker (Battaglia I believe) must think this race is being run on Polytrack. I think she could easily be 3rd betting choice behind Game Face and Secret Gypsy, who are better real dirt horses than her.

CD 10th--Court Vision 7/2 ml--Think this one would prefer firm going which he likely won't get. I also think he'd prefer a little longer race.

CD 11th--Pioneer of the Nile---are there that many biased Southern Californians who will actually bet him? If he wanted dirt, you have to think he'd have been running on it last summer at Saratoga. Then again, I didn't see how anyone would bet Colonel John last year and quite a few did. Come to think of it, its been 20 years since the SA Derby winner won the KY Derby.

POTN is 9/1 in early betting, he will finish in that area.

I agree with all except Court Vision. I think 7-2 is pretty square. And Elusive Lady, though maybe up against it from a pace standpoint, gets her first crack at a flat mile after running 8 1/2 and 9 furlongs in her last two. It's certainly not a classic field.

On a somewhat related note, I'm not a big weight guy, but why on earth does Court Vision have to give 5 pounds to Einstein? The same Einstein who's earned over $2 million, won this race last year and just beat CV in the Big Cap. Can anyone explain that?

Allowance conditions. I think it was non winners of a major stakes on turf since nov 15th allowed weight. Something like that anyways.

I thought it was a misprint in the PPs at first.

i also wondered about it when i saw einstein was getting weight. someone asked about sure pick of the day, he's it-since rachel ran on friday.

I noted that as well. Won't be on my tickets.