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-   -   4/12: Santa Anita (P6 C/O) (http://www.derbytrail.com/forums/showthread.php?t=28981)

Kasept 04-12-2009 08:30 AM

4/12: Santa Anita (P6 C/O)
 
Got early score with $400 tri in the Shakertown and slowly leaked money the rest of the way Saturday. Capuano's Hero's Reward ($12.60), whom I stressed Friday on ATR, came through in a 'three noses on the wire' finish with exotics use Cannonball (8.60-1) and next best tab Chamberlain Bridge (5-1).

Trombetta made the right choice for Eternal Star as that one annexed the deep Commonwealth. He had considered the tougher Gr. I Carter for his consistent 5yo bay by Five Star Day. Rebellion and My Pal Charlie rounded out the top three for the available triple of $71+. F&M Turf Champ Forever Together came out for her 2009 debut and handled the nice Jenny Wiley bunch with aplomb for Jonathon Sheppard and George Strawbridge. The always solid Sheppard has come out firing at Keeneland with 3 stakes wins in the first week.

Came into the Blue Grass live to Charitable Man and Cliffy's Future in the P4, and was laughably trounced from top to bottom when results produced a top four that was as plausible as any... They just weren't any of the ones I was trying. Sadly, the Blue Grass, once as important a spring sophomore event as there could be, has become a silly exercise that is useless as an anticipatory model for Derby performance. That doesn't mean it isn't still fun and a good betting opportunity...

Hope you did OK Saturday. Carryover at Santa Anita looks tough but worth a delve.


SANTA ANITA


POST-SCRATCHES


4th: MDN CLM, F&M-4+, 6.5f (P6, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #5 Tiz Salsa 2-1 4th
Next Best: #4 Justalittletipsy 9-5 2nd
Consider: #7 Xtraordinary 5-2 5th
Super Add: #2 Saint's Crown 3-1 WON


5th: CLM, F&M-4+, 1m-T (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #1 Wondrous Event 5-1 2nd
Best Value: #8 Recess 8-1 5th
Next Best: #5 Sunny Peace 3-1 3rd
Super Add: #2 Wood Art 7-2 8th


6th: MSW, 3yo-F, 6.5f (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Very interesting MSW fillies with some hot-working first and second time starters from big outfits..

Most Likely: #3 First Grade 4-1 3rd
Best Value: #5 Guided Wave 12-1 8th
Next Best: #4 She's Borracho 2-1 2nd
Super Add: #8 Ride Me Fast 5-1 WON


7th: 35th Las Cienagas (Gr. II), F&M-4+, 6.5f-T (P3, DD, Super)

Terrific version of this stake 'down the hill'..

Most Likely: #3 Tuscan Evening 3-1 3rd
Best Value: #9 Macadamia 15-1 6th
Next Best: #5 Dawn After Dawn 7-2 4th
Super Add: #4 Reba Is Tops 6-1 2nd


8th: ALW/N1X, 3yo-F, 6f (DD, Super)

Most Likely: #1 Witty 3-1 WON
Next Best: #2 Music Magic 7-2 4th
Best Value: #5 Cosmic Queen 12-1 5th
Super Add: #8 Lady Lumberjack 6-1 2nd


9th: MSW, 3+, 1m-T (Super High 5)

Most Likely: #4 RENEGADE STORM 3-1 WON
Best Value: #10 Dollar Mountain 5-1 4th
Next Best: #1 Hidden Trail 4-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #3 Holladay Road 5-1 3rd
High 5 Play: #2 Domestic Brew 12-1 5th

$1 Exacta (4-1) Paid $15.50
$1 Trifecta (4-1-3) Paid $52.10
$1 Super High Five (4-1-3-10-2) Paid $971.20



<$200 P6 Play:

4: 4-5
5: 1-5-8
6: 3-4-5-8
7: 3-9
8: 1-2
9: 4

2x3x4x2x2x1 = 96 x $2 = $192


<$75 P4 Play:

6: 3-4-5-8
7: ALL
8: 1-2
9: 4

4x8x2x1 = $64 $1 P4 (8/7/1/4,9) Paid $293.50


Good luck!
Steve

Kasept 04-12-2009 01:14 PM

SCRATCHES AND CHANGES

Last Update: April 12th, 09:49 am

LATE SCRATCHES AND CHANGES FOR SUNDAY, APRIL 12TH, 2009

Race 1: No Changes

Race 2: No Changes

Race 3: No Changes

Race 4: No Changes

Race 5: #8 +1 Overweight

Race 6: No Changes

Race 7: Scratch #2 Bel Air Sizzle; #3 +2 Overweight, #9 +3 Overweight

Race 8: No Changes

Race 9: #2 +1 Overweight

Kasept 04-12-2009 04:18 PM

Jeez.. That hurt. Rosario takes over there and then fails to win. He did have to use the horse more than Arambula to get to the winner and take the lead, but... crimminy.

Kasept 04-12-2009 04:19 PM

See the 5th? Sumwonlovesyou ran against Sweetsinginganita two years ago. I think Sightseek was/is a Sweetsinginganita fan.

rgustafson 04-12-2009 07:05 PM

Very nice ticket structure to hit the late pick four. Your use of the all button in the feature worked well in a race that you had no strong convictions about.

oilertige 04-12-2009 07:06 PM

Nice Hit on Race 9!
 
Steve; nicely done w/ your selections for the Super Hi 5 finale @ SA today; not to redboard; but was able to get the bet in for $1; had a $54 play; many thanks! Hope others took advantage!

Kasept 04-12-2009 07:07 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by rgustafson
Very nice ticket structure to hit the late pick four. Your use of the all button in the feature worked well in a race that you had no strong convictions about.

Thx RG. And had the runner up held on at 15-1, this would have paid $1,000+. You're dead on that I couldn't come up with any exclusions. Since the 2nd half was chalkt looking, I thought 'all' was the way to go...

Happy with outcome. Sorry I didn't play the nightcap by itself though.

Kasept 04-12-2009 07:09 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by oilertige
Steve; nicely done w/ your selections for the Super Hi 5 finale @ SA today; not to redboard; but was able to get the bet in for $1; had a $54 play; many thanks! Hope others took advantage!

Oiler!

Congrats... That's great! $970!

herkhorse 04-12-2009 07:15 PM

nice work :tro:

-BT- 04-12-2009 10:09 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by oilertige
Steve; nicely done w/ your selections for the Super Hi 5 finale @ SA today; not to redboard; but was able to get the bet in for $1; had a $54 play; many thanks! Hope others took advantage!


nice work

congrats on that big score in the finale as well steve..... that late pk4 paid well

-bt-

Rootdog1 04-14-2009 10:36 AM

Way to go Steve.


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