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-   -   Betting ? for the board (http://www.derbytrail.com/forums/showthread.php?t=28844)

wac 04-05-2009 08:53 PM

Betting ? for the board
 
First off i am not very good at playing pk 3 4 so i usually bet one race at a time and on some races im willing to bet $50 per race which is a good size bet to me but i wonder if im not allocating my money in the best way. Usually i find a horse that is at decent odds 10-1 or higher say he is horse 1 my bets look like this:
20w10p 1
2ex 2,3,4,5/1
1tri 2,3,4,5/2,3,4,5/1
my question is that should i be betting less win place and try to put the 1 on top of some of these ex tri bets? its just that i am not right very often and when i am i want to cream the race. should it look more like this?
10w5p1=15
2ex 2,3,4,5/1then 1/2,3,4,5=16
1tri 2,3,4,5/2,3,4,5/1 then 1/2345/2345=24
that takes me to 55 and i guess i would want a 2345/1/2345=12 now we are at $67. I really dont know which is the best way to do it and it gets aggravating when my "1" wins and i get the win place which is great but man id sure like to get some signers and need some help. im pretty new at this so this may seem like a stupid ? but forgive me for my lack of knowledge. thanks

Port Conway Lane 04-05-2009 09:22 PM

I'd bet $4 win 1 $1 exs with 4 horses on top of the 1 and $1 tris keying the 1 in the third slot.$20 total

Play percentages and make the key horse one that runs second and third more than he wins.

The win bet and exactas will cover your wager.No matter what wager you make there will always be monday morning quarterbacking.

Bobby Fischer 04-06-2009 08:04 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by wac
my question is that should i be betting less win place and try to put the 1 on top of some of these ex tri bets? its just that i am not right very often and when i am i want to cream the race.

If you like a horse in that 10-1 range, he will pay good across the board.

Have an opinion about the favorite in your race.

If the favorite(not your pick) is a strong pick:
consider the daily double with maybe 3-5 horses from the previous and/or next races and your horse.
It could pay more than the 1/fav exacta in your race.
Also if you want to take some shots you could save $$ keying the favorite with your pick in some tris.
examples
tri 1/2,3,4,5/fav
tri 1/fav/2,3,4,5
tri fav/1/2,3,4,5
tri 1/3longshots/fav
tri 1/fav/2longshots
tri fav/1/2longshots
If the favorite is weak - go ahead and play extra exactas(excluding the fav), and think about covering your opinion in the tris.

Thunder Gulch 04-06-2009 08:44 AM

Betting longshots to place and show is statistically the worst bet on the board.

gales0678 04-06-2009 09:00 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by wac
First off i am not very good at playing pk 3 4 so i usually bet one race at a time and on some races im willing to bet $50 per race which is a good size bet to me but i wonder if im not allocating my money in the best way. Usually i find a horse that is at decent odds 10-1 or higher say he is horse 1 my bets look like this:
20w10p 1
2ex 2,3,4,5/1
1tri 2,3,4,5/2,3,4,5/1
my question is that should i be betting less win place and try to put the 1 on top of some of these ex tri bets? its just that i am not right very often and when i am i want to cream the race. should it look more like this?
10w5p1=15
2ex 2,3,4,5/1then 1/2,3,4,5=16
1tri 2,3,4,5/2,3,4,5/1 then 1/2345/2345=24
that takes me to 55 and i guess i would want a 2345/1/2345=12 now we are at $67. I really dont know which is the best way to do it and it gets aggravating when my "1" wins and i get the win place which is great but man id sure like to get some signers and need some help. im pretty new at this so this may seem like a stupid ? but forgive me for my lack of knowledge. thanks


ex's and tri's are where the $ is at , usually if your key is 10/1 and the favroite can run off the board you are going to be rewarded a lot more in the tri's and ex's then in place or show

i would only play your key horse in ex's and tri's , but make sure you put him on top to catch those really good payouts

if you want to bet him to win play some of the BR on win only , forget the place bet

wac 04-06-2009 09:11 PM

thanks for the insight guys i appreciate it as ive been following the game for about 5 years now and still have so much to learn. Wish there were some cappers in lville that wouldnt mind meeting with me so i could pick there brains about how and why they pick how they do.

AeWingnut 04-06-2009 09:38 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Thunder Gulch
Betting longshots to place and show is statistically the worst bet on the board.

define longshot. Some people say "upset" if something around 5-1 wins a race :rolleyes:

I will bet a longshot (20-1) across the board if I believe it will pay more than $8 to show.

Oaklawnfan 04-06-2009 10:04 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Thunder Gulch
Betting longshots to place and show is statistically the worst bet on the board.

Amen! You're betting against yourself and the takeout will get you. Go horizontaly rather than verticaly. Pick threes and fours if the exactas and trifectas are not working for you.

AeWingnut 04-06-2009 10:12 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Oaklawnfan
Amen! You're betting against yourself and the takeout will get you. Go horizontaly rather than verticaly. Pick threes and fours if the exactas and trifectas are not working for you.

yeah I understand takeout - for example the rolling pick 3s at Keeneland. They are great. You can win 2 races in a row and lose the 3rd leg and get taken out of 3 bets.

eajinabi 04-06-2009 11:02 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Oaklawnfan
Amen! You're betting against yourself and the takeout will get you. Go horizontaly rather than verticaly. Pick threes and fours if the exactas and trifectas are not working for you.

I agree that Pick 3 and Pick 4 are better bets than handicapping who comes in third in a trifecta. Of course horizontal bets require patience which a lot of people who go to the track do not have.


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