I'd wait until they've run their final preps. Pioneer of the Nile will have to be exposed in the SA Derby before he can be in Kentucky.

NT

I've never understood why horses are downgraded for being good enough and tractable enough to get good trips every race. I'd think that's a plus and not the negative that so many people seem to think it is. People always want to look for the horses that have bad trips and then salivate at the chance to bet them the next time, with the thinking that a good trip will earn them a win. Giant Oak in this year's Louisiana Derby is a prime example of that. What seems to happen more often though is the horses that lack the early speed and quickness to get themselves in good positions just end up with yet another bad trip while the horses with good tactical speed are able to be put in good position time after time and allowed to show their best stuff.......and handicappers downgrade their efforts because it was accomplished with an easy trip. If it happens one time, I can see you wanting to see it again. When it happens two and three and four times, it's not luck.

In general terms I agree with you, if a horse has multiple gears to stay out of trouble, it is a strength. Good horses get good trips....Conversely if a horse is continuing to find trouble in races, there has to be a reason for it. Dollar Bill comes to mind, there are still people out there that still think this horse had a massive amount of talent? He just fooled them with his supposed bad luck.

It's all about price, KG, and horse's who get perfect trips AND are short prices are poor bets.

Believe it or not, some of us bet on these races, and that's the perspective we use when looking at races. Chasing perfect trip winners, at low odds, is a way to lose. Assuming horses that have gotten perfect trips in the past will get them in the future is another easy route to Brokesville.

The only horse I'd disagree with is Friesan Fire.
He's as solid as can be.

Dunkirk could still be anything.

POTN has done "NOTHING" so far to warrent derby consideration.

Wow. People actually bet on races? I may have to try that one day. Thanks for the tip.

Now then, if you want to talk about betting prices in relation to actual chances of winning, that's a different story. Obviously, the same horse that you may like the most for the win will often be a different horse than the one you will bet. I know I'm in my first month of following this sport and all and don't bet a dime but I think I kinda learned that. I wasn't, however, referring to the betting aspect of it. Also, on the flip side of your last sentence, assuming horses that have gotten bad trips in the past will get better ones in the future is a more direct route to Brokesville.

I couldn't disagree more.

NT

That's where your skill and honesty comes in.

Can you tell the difference between a Giant Oak, Cosmonaut type of horse (an overrated type that finds trouble and will be overbet for a few races)

or a true troubled trip like Pay In Kind ?

Can you be honest with yourself when you aren't sure?

The nuances of trip handicapping can be easily missed. For example, and Andy may disagree, I think there is a horse in the feature today at Aqu who absolutely stands out based on his trip last time. It didn't have anything to do with him getting stopped or into trouble, but it had to do with race flow/dynamics.

That is where it is often quite safe to assume that a horse coming off a less than stellar trip will get a better one in his/her next start.

NT

Pioneer has been well spotted, i believe that ends very shortly.

the Mousse will "cream" him and I would like to believe the Mousse is real but ???

And as I said to Andy's post, if you are talking about chances relative to odds, I can understand where you are coming from and give it more credence. But what I don't understand is why it's safe to assume that a horse that had a bad trip will get a better one next time but bad to assume that one that had a good trip will get another one next time.

I would say that it has something to do with the number of horses who receive bad trips per race vs. the amount who don't. There are generally very few legitimately "bad trip" horses in a given race or on a given card.

NT

Sweet.......you are giving out Pioneer of the Nile over Friesan Fire in the stupidfecta. I think the future betting opens today. Time to get the hell down to the OTB and bet out.

Did you bet my opinion and lose in the "Just a Coincidence" race ?

Did you give out a horse that was gonna win and a horse that was gonna finish last ? I only play the stupidfecta when you have two horrible opinions. If you give out only the winning side I can't work with it.

the horse I tossed who won (Just a Coincedence) was 2-1 ml fav. and went off at 5.3 - 1 (3rd choice)

The horse I liked (B Z Warrior) who finished 3rd, not last, was 5-2 ml and went off 1.6 -1 (post time favorite) AND runs back in the Swale.
http://www.derbytrail.com/forums/sho...55&postcount=2

guess there were a lot of "stupidfectas" :rolleyes:
i was a good sport but this is like the 3rd time you bring it up.


by the way: you still owe me compliments for the last two Kentucky Derbys, and the Breeders Cup Classic invaders thread.
Also, expect you to kiss my ass after this year's derby.

Also, "The jerk store called and they're running out of you!!!"

Why was the "Andy versus Scuds" thread closed?
 

Just when Nick brought up a key point concerning trip handicapping, one that could be expanded upon, and quite fruitfully, for 20 or so pages, the thread is closed.

I realize that some of the idiots (all on my IGGY LIST) got in there and just had to offer their $.02 worth but did we really need to close the thread? Maybe we should start censoring at the general level (in addition to the individual) rather than shutting the door on something interesting.

Especially in a forum where TROUBLED TRIPS are the trip handicapping of choice for the novices. For example, and not to single him out, CSC has yet to point to a trip horse that didn't have trouble (and in most cases, a perfect trip otherwise).

Let those with a little bit of knowledge discuss the topic. Perhaps there are some others who might actually learn something.

What a ****in joke!!! Is this a forum about HANDICAPPING or just devoted to jockey and/or horse adoration?

SOMEBODY QUOTE THIS SO FATS CAN REPLY W/OUT ADMITTING HE READS FISCHER

this one ?

quote the F'n thread and expand on it

[quote/ "The nuances of trip handicapping can be easily missed. For example, and Andy may disagree, I think there is a horse in the feature today at Aqu who absolutely stands out based on his trip last time. It didn't have anything to do with him getting stopped or into trouble, but it had to do with race flow/dynamics.

That is where it is often quite safe to assume that a horse coming off a less than stellar trip will get a better one in his/her next start.

NT" //

What do you mean? I thought my post was straightforward enough.

why not ask opinions about something to do with trip theory ?
or post a race with an interesting trip ?
or reply to a thread like the IWR Gotham thread ?

that iggy list **** is childish