I Want revenge
 

His nice improvement a result of the distance, training on the pro ride, moving to the dirt, the inner at AU,maturity, or just a combination of all of these?

You forgot the lesser competition.

i've also read where it was one of the stronger gothams-so how is it suddenly lesser competition?


jpops-he lost by a scant nose to POTN. and then he obviously handled a dirt surface as well....

Its the same old stale response to a horse that puts out a nice performance. A horse can't just be given credit anymore for being good, its always lesser competition.

Guess she meant the likes of Pioneer of the Nile, ChocolateCandy and Papa Clem are superior to Imperial Council and Mr. Fantasy.

You know she's right

PS How good does that make Pioneer of the Nile look now

Dirt.

hmmmmm that 113 speed figure proves it, it was the lesser competition:rolleyes:

Yeah, pedigree buffs must be all about the California contingent. I mean you have to love those bloodlines on The Pamplemousse, right?

NT

I am sure you were more impressed with Pletchers 2 MSW winners compition, than the winners that Revenge beat. How cynical.

All it means is that POTN loves synthetic and I Want Revenge prefers dirt.
I'm guessing I Want Revenge would beat POTN on a conventional dirt track

And when you stop guessing.....then they will fear you.

Think we'll end up seeing that

all we still know is he looks good on synthetics. and how good is a good horse if you say lack of competition is why he won? then he was not so good, just better than the field-and i don't believe that.

not necessarily

He did not improve all that much, if you are handicapping a race and think a synthetic based horses is going to run well on dirt then add 5-10 points to the figure. I add more for front runners and less for closers. It has worked pretty well for me. Now there is no guarantee that they will run well but that seems to be the range for the difference in figures.

Einstein ran well at Santa Anita but I think earned a pretty poor figure, 103, horses in the past on dirt dont win that race with 103's.

This last line contradicts your whole statement. If you believe, as you say you do, that synthetic figures are 5-10 points lower than dirt figures then Einstein's 100 Beyer is pretty decent, once you kick in the added points plus a couple more for him being a "stalker."

NT

Of course it's just an opinion, if you believe like many people do that POTN is more of a turf horse who has taken to the synthetic tracks in California.

Barring injury, both should be at Churchill on 5/2 and we'll find out. :)

????

No it doesnt....if he got a 100 at SA for the big cap, if he ran that same race in the Donn on dirt my guess is it would be a 105-110 figure. This is completely general and unscientific but the proof is getting pretty staggering that the figures on synthetic are generally slower then dirt if the two efforts are about equal.

POTN though has run on dirt, isnt that a little different case then say IWR?

Now he could have improved as a horse, especially given the trainers ability with three year old colts but I would be a little bit concerned backing POTN at a short price.

I completely agree that the synthetic numbers are slower than dirt.

However, you wrote that Einstein won the Big Cap with a 103 (It was actually a 100).

You then said that that figure was pretty poor but if you use your system (which seems perfectly logical) then you get a dirt BSF of around 108-110. That number wins most handicap races in this sad year.

NT