Thoughts on Dunkirk's first race this year?
 

I was wondering what others thought of the 3.7 Million dollar colt entered in Saturday's 40K MSW.

Probably overplayed only becuase of a price tag. Good consistent work pattern.....

It's interesting that Velazquez isn't riding either of the two Pletcher horses in the race - and is instead named to ride the debuting Kings Village for Albertrani.

The dam of Dunkirk won the Kentucky Oaks by a huge margin in last to first fashion. I'm guessing this one won't have a whole lot of raw speed.

Pletcher kind of hinted at the fact the he has some talented 3yos that have yet to run; in the DRF article where he was on the cover this week.

Very intruiging race, especially if Ziegfeld drew in off the AE list.
All that being said, Dutrow will be tough to be beat with Cairiene.

Her two to run haven't been much. I wouldn't use him at all.

Being by Unbridled's Song amps up the spped and the horse has worked very well. I'll try to beat him though because I always try to bet these types. I agree that Secret Status, as good as she was, hasn't thrown much. In fact, I'm wondering if that's why Farish sold this one.

Dunkirk looked good.
 

While many of you did not believe in Dunkirk's ability, he sure looked good last weekend. Where does he go from here? Does this put him on the Derby trail? He really looked strong to me. Was it weak competition? I still watching closely. The charts looked like he ran good fractions. What do you handicappers think?

I salivate waiting for the opportunity to bet against him. I mean, it won't be as great an opportunity as betting against Nicanor, but it will still be good.

Now in the starting gate for the Andy Serling Derby:

1. Dunkirk
2. Nicanor
3. Taqarub

NT

DENVER and DUNKIRK have identical workout patterns. DENVER ran late in the closing stages of that MSW on Saturday. Should benefit going long.

Yeah, you gotta love horses that clunk up in fast paced sprints, with mediocre final times, when they stretch out.

I assume when either of these horses wins a turf race later in the year, or next year, you will be bringing back this thread to show us all how brilliant you are.

can i ask why?

is it b/c you think the horse is gonna be drastically overbet
or
that the horse has no talent


-bt-

Ok, I understand betting against a horse that is too short a price, a horse that you think just can't win and the public money is wrong. I do not understand how one can possibly "Salivate" waiting to bet against this horse. I think that is a bit premature at this point. You have no clue where he shows up next, if he runs in a allowance race vs a weak group, Would you then play against him ? I realize the Beyer was low, and he will more then likely be overbet, but it all has to depend on where he show's up and who he is facing. The horse did not blow me away, I thought it was a weak group, but I dont think I would bet against him in a 1x going 1 1/8 next time out.

probably a bit of both...it's not as tho the horse has NO talent, but that the expectations are greater than warranted. someone mentioned nicanor above-he'll go off at very short odds first time out due to his sibling, not because he deserves the money being pushed his way.

Not to speak for Andy, but both.

1. He beat what appears to have been a dreadful bunch.

2. He immediately appears to be the type that people fall over themselves to get behind.

He'll make Bandini look like Dr. Fager.

Obviously the only thing anyone should be talking about regarding the MSW race Dunkirk came out of is the extreme fast pace.

I had the pace 25 points faster than the final time - so a 102-77 if you want to use the Beyer #.

In those rare extreme races like that - you obviously want to upgrade the performances by the horses who showed speed on the killer pace - and you want them either cutting back or coming back at 7f in a paceless race.

You certainly want to run away from horses like Dunkirk - who was basically staggering home - but opening up big because everyone else was stopping badly.

Pletcher is historically much better 2nd time than 1st with debuters at GP ... but Dunkirk's performance was extremely unimpressive and worse than looked.

If anyone wants to go gaga over a debuter on that card - go look at Indy's Sonata's debut win!!

While 3/5ths slower than Dunkirk's - keep the following in mind

* She is a filly, he is a colt

* She is trained by Mike Matz - who had lost 77 consecutive dirt races with FTS prior to her win. He is trained by Pletcher - who may not always fully crank them for a debut - but he has them ready.

* She had a trip - broke inward and hit the gate - rushed up from last to first in a blink of an eye. He had a pace meltdown in front of him.

Also - look at Golden Sonata's pedigree. She is by A. P. Indy, the sports best stamina sire. Her dam broke her maiden at 12 furlongs in Europe - and once won a Graded Stake in North America by closing from more than 20 lengths out of it after a half mile. She has an ultimate endurance pedigree.

I haven't been that impressed with a horse who ran a Beyer in the 60's in a very long time. Too bad the field she beat sucked - and she couldn't have caught a loaded field to camofluage her for next time out.

Steve this is the funniest thing I ever read here. I can't agree more!!:)

Its a matter of my observation. If DENVER does win a stakes race on Turf/Dirt later this year, I will bring it up. If he doesnt then I am wrong about him. What does it matter to you???

Because you never freaking said he was going to win a stakes, so why on earth would you deem it necessary to fellate yourself if he does?

or Ravel :D