SAT - CRC PK4, HAW feature, TBD spot play
 

Calder Race Course POST SCRATCHES

R7 - G3 Kenny Noe Jr. Handicap

#5 Yesbyjimminy - Looking for 6th victory in a row at low odds.
#3 How's Your Halo - Much better at CRC and his latest was impressive as he drew away from Golden Spikes.
#1 It's a Bird - Contender ends up here.
#4 Flatter Me Blue - Gets a bit of a weight break for the step up and could challenge top two.

R8 - G2 La Prevoyante Handicap (Turf)

#4 Communique - Was competitive versus G1 company in last two and won the G3 Bewitch at KEE in April. The race goes through her.
#9 The Niagara Queen - Interesting longshot makes 1st start for Pletcher, has won at this trip two back (G2 Dance Smart at WO), and might be lone speed. Lots to like.
#6 J'Ray - Likes CRC and is having a solid year that includes a couple of Graded Stakes wins.
#10 Palmilla - Have to respect the connections and she would be no surprise in this event.

R9 - G3 Fred W. Hooper Handicap

#6 Hey Byrn - Makes 2nd start off a layoff and stretches out to preferred distance. I expect him to sit chilly and watch a possible speed duel develop between Gotcha Gold and Finallymadeit before making a winning late move.
#7 Nathan Ridge - Yes, he will get checked for class, but it seems this is the right time to take a shot with a runner that knows the surface well.
#2 It's a Bird - Took a bit of a step backwards in latest as the chalk, but can not be ignored here. SCR
#9 Truth Rules - Zito's horse is finally coming into to form and will be making picking them up late. SCR
#3 Gotcha Gold - Best scenario would be to sit right off Finallymadeit's flank.

R10 - G2 WL McKnight Handicap (Turf)

#6 Hard Top (Ire) - Makes 3rd start in the U.S. after a couple of ho-hum performances on yielding turf courses in New York. Has been stationed with Pletcher at Palm Meadows long enough to get acclimated with South Florida and should get a firm course. (Singleton)
#1 Summer Patriot - Last seen in the G1 Turf Classic at BEL where he finished a distant 3rd. If he comes close to any of his two races at Saratoga, he'll be a hand-full.
#12 Always First (GB) - Loves the marathon trip, but not willing to take a short price.
#10 Phil the Power - Has been pointing for this race and capable of adding some serious value to the exotics.

All Stakes PK4 - 1 3 5 / 4 6 9 10 / 3 6 7 12 / 6 = $48

Tampa Bay Downs - SPOT PLAY

R7 - OC32k / N2X (Turf)

#1 Greycliff Exchange - Anywhere near his ML (9/2) odds is generous considering the fact that he faced much better at AP this summer including Snaphok (Multiple turf winnner) and Strait of Mewsina (who won the G3 Hawthorne Derby and is entered today in race 10 at CRC - G2 WL McKnight). His tactical speed and a ground saving trip by W. Martinez should get the job done. Those that feel the holiday gambling spirit, back the truck up (beep beep beep) and unload.

Hawthorne Race Course

R7 - Ill Breds Jim Edgar Illinois Futurity 100k

#3 Summer's Empire - You have been warned that the ML (7/2) is way off and he'll be odds on. The son of Empire Maker made his 1st three starts going one turn on synthetic surfaces with little success. Since being switched to HAW (Conventional dirt and two turns), he broke his maiden and dominated open company by more than 6 lengths. Strictly to one to beat and should be singled in the carryover PK6.

Tri & Super Key - 3 / 4 5 7 9

Good Racing Luck

Don't get too excited about the Tampa morning line Gus. IMO, it's the worst morning line in the business.

Good luck with your picks today.

The opening day line is the squarest I've seen - maybe a new guy this year? Although in this particular race, I don't see how you come up with 7-2 on Tour Ireland and 9-2 on GE... :confused:

Because Tour Ireland missed in the Calder Derby by 1.75 lengths. The big gap after a huge win, then two bad outings are more than troubling though.

Then again, any horse that can win with Regina Sealock aboard, should be odds on with Ronnie Allen.

Thanks Bigs, Knock 'em dead at TBD again this year.

PK6 -22k Carryover at HAW

R4 - 3 4 5 8 / 4 5 10 / 5 6 / 3 / 5 6 8 / 8 = $144

Good Racing Luck

Has tailed off markedly since the Calder derby/ensuing N1X which something clearly happened to him in. Personally, I hope he's even money. Recent form and the gap in training from the last start to the recent works is a red flag and I would think an odds maker would certainly give the nod to a horse that has rounded into form (albeit has a strong tendency to hang here) over one with this many question marks. Thats all. It is Tampa. :D

Gus, did you just use Willie Martinez and ground saving trip in the same sentence? :wf :eek: :zz:

I'm hoping he reads the post.