11/12: Aqueduct (6th-9th)
 

It's funny how sometimes in this game you 'know' you are going to win.. Tuesday was like that with the late P4 at Churchill. Once the Maker-Ramsey single Majestic Feline won the 7th, I felt there was no way the rest of the play didn't have the necessary horses on it, and it did. Even though the return was modest, $185.00 on a $72 play, I was pleased with the structure of the ticket. The play tried to maximize the Quad's upside potential by reducing it to a P3 with the single and including several big prices horses that would have sent the ROI skyrocketing had they hit in the 8th, 9th or 10th. Hope you did well! Big A '4' looks fun today...


AQUEDUCT


PRE-SCRATCHES


6th: NYB-MSW, 2yo-F, 6.5f (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #5 Submerge 8-5 WON
Best Value: #3 Moon Drop 5-1 4th
Next Best: #6 La Concerto 3-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #8 Sassification 15-1 7th


7th: CLM, 3+, 6.5f (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #8 Fleet Valid 4-1 6th
Best Value: #3 Gimmearoutine 12-1 4th
Next Best: #7 Bill Place 7-2 7th
Exotics Use: #4 Yes Master 5-1 5th


8th: Fairy Garden, F&M-3+, 8.5f-T (DD)

Most Likely: #4 Royal Pleasure 7-2 6th
Best Value: #6 Cagey Girl 15-1 9th
Next Best: #3 Waquoit's Love 3-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #5 Chestoria 12-1 WON


9th: NYB-MDN CLM, 2yo-F, 6f (Super)

Most Likely: #9 Just Another Story 4-1 2nd
Best Value: #4 Tough But Fair 10-1 3rd
Next Best: #1e R. Dutrow entry 3-1 7th
Exotics Use: #8 Irish Mama 4-1 4th


<$100 P4 Play:

6: 3-5-6
7: 3-7-8
8: 4-6
9: 1-2-4-8-9

3x3x2x5 = $90


Good luck!
Steve

Steve, just curious, but any word on Chestoria? Clearly something is amiss...

Steve, can you please tell us when you know your going to win.;)

Not necessarily. I think the career best stake win in July knocked her for a loop.. On figs, that was a big effort, and the flop in the Diana and subsequent break confirm it. She likes cut in the ground, but I'm giving her the soft going fiasco comebacker as a toss while appreciating the Ticonderoga effort was back approaching the lower edge of her typical performance range. Note that she worked her way to a best run 4th off the layoff earlier in the year, and at 12-1 she's a price worth using in anticipation of at least a good try at her best distance.

I can't do that... But I can tell you that I know I'm the best Yahtzee player here.. way better than Hossy and I will beat him in our throwdown challenge. Loser puts a vid on YouTube dancing to Flea Market Montgomery.

oh, wow. i don't know if we can stand the excitement of two BIG contests. you guys will have to wait on yahtzee for now to preserve the sanity of the board. whatever sanity is left, that is...

I think the Fairy Garden is a definite value race, some of the familiar faces in here have burned holes in a few pockets.

Note the Asmussen (#6 La Concerto) DEAD on the board in the Big A 6th and the Hushion (#2) taking money. Talked aboutthis race on air yesterday for a while noting that the 2 and 8 weren't hopeless beyond the obvious 3-5-6. Now inclined to 'saver' with the 2 seeing her getting bet like this...

POST SCRIPT: Odds fell in line by post time..

Or a GREAT try... But at 9-2, she was hardly the value you wanted.. or in other words, plenty of people saw through the 12-1 ML price.

Definitely not alot of value in that price, but I was clearly wrong about something being amiss with her. I was actually very glad to see her win today and I hope this is a sign she will return to her form from earlier in the year. I lost money today not using her...and actually didn't mind.

Let me see if I get this right... You ask if I think something's wrong... You get a fairly detailed answer expressing that in fact it looks like she's coming around... and you don't use her...

:zz:

Come on Byk....it's me we are talking about here. When have I ever listened to anyone and done something the easy way?:D