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-   -   Make Believe (http://www.derbytrail.com/forums/showthread.php?t=26155)

the_fat_man 11-11-2008 09:50 PM

Make Believe
 
Interesting run off the layoff last out (against nothing at DEL). Wasn't boxed in and got a perfect setup but won for fun without feeling the whip.

(And the announcer thought she was a 1st time starter.)

But I'm really banking on Artistic Talent getting in off the AE's, so DUMzzi can cut those sprint fractions again.:rolleyes:

blackthroatedwind 11-11-2008 09:57 PM

They're running the race again Thursday and Artistic Talent is in the body of the race.

Apparently you don't do your work too far in advance.

Not much of a field tomorrow but I thought Make Believe wasn't good enough.

GPK 11-11-2008 10:04 PM

Give No Ground?

blackthroatedwind 11-11-2008 10:06 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by GPK
Give No Ground?

She ran some big race last time.:rolleyes:

GPK 11-11-2008 10:09 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind
She ran some big race last time.:rolleyes:

Im willing to toss that one. Yielding and a very pedestrian pace.

Fast and Sassy will obviously take some money, but Im reluctant from that post

blackthroatedwind 11-11-2008 10:13 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by GPK
Im willing to toss that one. Yielding and a very pedestrian pace.


The first and second finishers came from 5th and 6th.

GPK 11-11-2008 10:15 PM

Flying Sappho is actually interesting as well (did I really just say that??) O'Brien stretches her out after a series of sprints and he removes the blinks. Johnny V gonna try and steal this one on the front end?

blackthroatedwind 11-11-2008 10:18 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by GPK
Flying Sappho is actually interesting as well (did I really just say that??) O'Brien stretches her out after a series of sprints and he removes the blinks. Johnny V gonna try and steal this one on the front end?

If you like her, you certainly shouldn't hope she is on the lead. I'm not big on turf stretch outs, but she has run well enough going long before.

the_fat_man 11-11-2008 10:20 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind
They're running the race again Thursday and Artistic Talent is in the body of the race.

Apparently you don't do your work too far in advance.

Not much of a field tomorrow but I thought Make Believe wasn't good enough.

With all the work I have presently, I'm lucky to be doing any handicapping at all. And, I needed Artistic Talent last time.

Not to say that I think much of this horse but what exactly do you base your opinion that she's not good enough on? It was an off turf and she was coming off a 10 month layoff. She got a nice trip but she won for fun. How do you evaluate her ability?

GPK 11-11-2008 10:21 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind
If you like her, you certainly shouldn't hope she is on the lead. I'm not big on turf stretch outs, but she has run well enough going long before.


I am thinking I have to wait until Talking Horses tomorrow to find out who you like.

blackthroatedwind 11-11-2008 10:23 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by the_fat_man
With all the work I have presently, I'm lucky to be doing any handicapping at all. And, I needed Artistic Talent last time.

Not to say that I think much of this horse but what exactly do you base your opinion that she's not good enough on? It was an off turf and she was coming off a 10 month layoff. She got a nice trip but she won for fun. How do you evaluate her ability?


It's an educated guess. The horses she beat are terrible. Maybe you're right that she can run faster, it is her second off a layoff, but I'm dubious. However, it's not the worst race, to say the least, for any stranger. Frankly, considering I don't like the 5th, and therefore won't play the Pick-4, I'll probably pass.

blackthroatedwind 11-11-2008 10:23 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by GPK
I am thinking I have to wait until Talking Horses tomorrow to find out who you like.


I don't have much of an opinion.....but I did pick Flying Sappho second.

GPK 11-11-2008 10:30 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind
I don't have much of an opinion.....but I did pick Flying Sappho second.


Truth be told, the feature is the only race that holds any appeal to me at all.

I see Chestoria is entered. Something clearly went wrong in the Diana and she isnt the same horse.

blackthroatedwind 11-11-2008 10:33 PM

I'm focusing all my attention on the big contest.

GPK 11-11-2008 10:36 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind
I'm focusing all my attention on the big contest.

It's almost like anticipating a train wreck. You know it's gonna be ugly and you want to cringe, but perversly enjoy watching it unfold.

the_fat_man 11-11-2008 10:38 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind
I don't have much of an opinion.....but I did pick Flying Sappho second.

She's been abused to no end this year by Johnny V sprinting. I can only imagine what he'll do to her routing; she breaks from the rail but she'll be wide, no cover, in no time.

declansharbor 11-11-2008 10:38 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind
I'm focusing all my attention on the big contest.

Didnt want to clog it up with this post so I'll throw it out here.

Im usually a value 'seeker', so with that said, I'm looking at siding with DaHoss.(note that I said 'looking at', for those that firmly believe in the power of Eddie Mush) That is, only if the odds dont fluctuate by post time tomorrow.

blackthroatedwind 11-11-2008 10:47 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by declansharbor
Didnt want to clog it up with this post so I'll throw it out here.

Im usually a value 'seeker', so with that said, I'm looking at siding with DaHoss.(note that I said 'looking at', for those that firmly believe in the power of Eddie Mush) That is, only if the odds dont fluctuate by post time tomorrow.


I thought they might be a tad low. He could easily rise to a few billion to one.

santana 11-12-2008 04:11 AM

At those odds...give me a few bucks on the dog.

hrfan 11-12-2008 04:17 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind
I thought they might be a tad low. He could easily rise to a few billion to one.

I am glad your having fun with this.... The worst handicapper in the world vs someone like you " who thinks he's the best" would be no where near those odds, there is a ton of other stuff involved, luck plays a big part in racing.... I am as good a handicapper as anyone on here, i will prove it, and after i am victorious i will more then likely not post anymore anyway.


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