Aftershock of Stardom Bound sale
 

Does Mike Smith keep the mount? I talked with him before the Debutante and he really thought she was going to keep getting better and better. I thought he fit her well.

Mike Smith fits synthetic tracks well, not horses.

Unless he moves east, I doubt he keeps the mount

That's a HUGE compliment for Smith, as poly (in most cases) plays like turf, and the races are thus more 'complicated' than those on dirt (excluding long stretch dirt tracks).

Not sure he really deserves it.

California synthetic is a different beast then poly. I should have been more clear. You want to be 5w, especially on the final turn. If I was smart enough, I would have been tracking the winners since it started, but I would say 70% of the winners come from the 3-5 path on the final turn. RARELY do you see a horse go gate to wire on the rail. Rail is almost always bad

Not true in all cases. Per my charts:

1) DMR synthetic races 'look' like turf races (mucho moves)

2) the old SA synthetic races 'looked' like turf races

3) the new SA synthetic races 'look' more like dirt races (very few moves)

4) HOL synthetic races also 'look' more like dirt than turf

5) GG synthetic races look like dirt --- does anyone ever pass up there?

This year, KEE poly races look more like dirt, while in the past they looked like turf races.

I don't think it's a question of where on the track the horses are running so much as when. Interestingly, the BC poly races looked very much like turf races, with the last move typically winning.

Presently, at HOL, good luck coming off the pace. The norm is races with very few moves.

Interesting information, thank you.

In regards to the bolded part, would this mean that alot of these races are in fact being won by jockey decision/patience?

I over-generalized here. The marathon was won by a 1st move, though the 2nd mover was blocked in the stretch run, and the last mover lost the photo.

The mile was won by the next to last mover (Rebellion, moving last, failed to change leads and was compromised.)

As for the Classic, Tiago and Champs Elysses made the last moves. But, this was probably the most 'complicated' race of the day, with Raven's Pass getting a very nice setup. Check the chart, attached.

And, of course, the Juvenile colt went 2-3-1 around the track.

So Coa's ride on Lewis Michael wasn't the way to go?

Maybe Prado?
 

I suspect if it is R. Dutrow training her in the future then Edgar Prado is as good a guess as anyone who picks up the mount....

I dont think he cares either way, and I dont want to mean that arrogantly, its just business.

between zenyatta running on saturdays and derby mounts he is liable to run into a situation that would not work out all that well. Its also very possible she could end up back in california.

Dutrow is friends with Mike, and same with IEAH, and I would say its not like you replace him because you feel like its a riding upgrade. the guy has won 12 BC races (all the original 7 to boot), he can ride the big races as good as anyone out there.

Not to seem harsh, but as good as she 's looked, I don't think it really matters who rides her. If Stardom Bound ends up running in Florida this winter as was reported after the sale, then I would certainly bet Prado will be aboard.

and who rides her matters because.....?

if lewis michael was in fact good enough to be competitive, Coa and the LM's eagerness slaughtered his chances in that race. Speed was a toss in most situations.

mike smith does wire to wire on the turf routes pretty well

everything else is pretty mediocre ,
but he did have a good thing going, with having by far the dominant closers and a track that was poison to speed. It's not like he was screwing up on Zenyatta and Stardom Bound and Tiago, so it wasn't terrible.

"are you joking ?"


a length off a 45 half on a track that was absolutely killing pace runners.
Lewis Michael had a pretty nice finish in his previous race, it would have been nice to have given him a chance.

I really haven't bothered to decide if Coa or Lewis Michael was to blame, but it was an awful trip for that track.

inheriting the lead in 47 seconds when you are the dominant horse against allowance competition(juvenile), is much much easier than chasing a 45 second half when you are a fringe contender in a race with graded competition(synth mile).

all the jockey tactics I happen to know are the armchair variety. If he could have let the fools on the pace go, and got the horse to settle back 3- 5 off the pace along the rail...
even if it left him with some work to have to fight his way back outside, I think it would have been optimal. Can't say whether that scenario would even have been possible

I don't know if it was coa's fault or the horse or just bad racing circumstance but the one thing i have an opinion on was that holding back and making one run was the best way to race that day.