Colonel John
 

I understand the hype that is BB vs. Curlin, but is there anyone here thinks CJ just might win BCC?

Do you think Curlin is going to fall?

Curlin's the best horse, but may or may not like the surface. If he likes it, wins easily... if not, then it's a wide open race and instead of looking at the US 3YO's, I'll be looking for some other US older horse or possibly an overseas shipper (if Curlin doesn't like the surface, then this may be the best opportunity for a Euro to steal one).

I think Col. John is still behind at least Well Armed and Tiago off the top of my head. I'm guessing one of the Europeans will put in a big late run to beat CJ as well. Heck, I think Zanjero and Student Council are just as good as CJ. The Travers winner always takes $$ though, which is nice.

In other words, I think that even though Colonel John will probably like the track, he's just not fast enough to win a race like this, and that is saying something this year.

very possible, though he is on my short list of greatest horses (past ten years only). BB, not so sure about this one...if hes not on lead he will lay another egg. All im saying is CJ can pick up the peices !!

Sweet Jesus I hope not. His prep for the BCC was the TRAVERS ffs. If he wins the lemmings will start using the Belmont as the prep for the BCC.

I don't know much about the Euro contingent, but still find Henrythenavigator intriguing. Does anybody think the Cali contingent might end up making a good showing between Well Armed, Go Between, and Tiago?

Go Between is an East Coast horse. The other two you mentioned are iffy at 10f, IMO.

I'm not sure why Tiago hasn't done better at 10 furlongs and longer but...I don't think Tiago's 3rd by 5 lengths in the Belmont Stakes was that bad. I can forgive Tiago for being 5th in the BC Classic last year since you either liked that slop fest or hated it. He was 4th in the SA Handicap but..he lost to 3 turf horses if you think about it. Then again, there will be good turf horses here again so..I don't know.

I don't know why he flopped in the Hollywood Gold Cup. Maybe he was just tired. lol.

I thought he sucked in the Derby, too.

Unless you think that Mike Smith whipping and driving past the wire while everyone else was easing up on their mounts constitutes a great finish...

In the Belmont he basically followed the good horses around the track without making much of a move or ever reaching contention. Which brings up another point aside from the distance question...he's simply not good enough.

isn't showing up one to be considered? he is still around, isn't he? or am i thinking of go between...

I dont like Colonel John in here at all.

Go Between. Showing Up retired a while ago.

I think Henry the Navigator would be a huge bet against in this spot, being that he isn't in that good of form now anyway, and probably belongs in the (turf) mile.
The biggest X factor will be Casino Drive. I think he's scheduled to go in an allowace race at Santa anita in the next week or so.

It would be nice if they keep CJ training for next year. If he matures well the 09 BC would be more likely. All these other horses are hoping Zenyatta runs on Firday.

I've been saying this since the spring. Is he the most likely?? Of course not, but considering his record on the Santa Anita track, he rated some kind of legit shot. Who knows now that we have the ProRide down there, but those top 2 will take a ton of money, so Colonel may offer a price worth looking at.

I think he has a great shot. He'll be a nice price and home court vs. BB. Curlin should be tough but I'm not taking the chalk.

Raven's Pass looks to be aimed at it. It seems like Coolmore will send Duke Of Marmalade rather than Henry (depending on how the Arc goes this weekend). Is Casino Drive still intending to travel.. Could be quite an international race..

Casino Drive should be at Hollywood Park by now. He was scheduled to arrive today. He is running in a prep on October 12 and then if all goes well he will run on 2 weeks rest. Ambitious, but he is said to be in incredible condition. Don't know if he will like the surface though. He will take a ton of money from the Japanese, so if you don't like him you want him in the gate.

Raven's Pass should be the favorite in the race in my opinion. Curlin a close second and Go Between third. Big Brown likely will go off the second choice, but is a toss if you ask me. Horse just never regained his April/May form.