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-   -   Two could be heavy favorites on Saturday - play against (http://www.derbytrail.com/forums/showthread.php?t=2439)

Scav 07-28-2006 10:25 AM

Two could be heavy favorites on Saturday - play against
 
Lady of Venice and Bernadini

I just had a chance to look at the sheets and here is what I thought

Bernadini: Ran huge for a 3 year old and exploded through his would be top to run another top. Ministier Bid has run huge in two starts and I think he has a huge shot to run a BIGGER number then Bernadini's top, consider MB alot

Lady of Venice: Her stablemate Angara is going to get ignored here by everyone but the sheet players. If you average out the weight they run about same number, and this being said, you get Jara, who people still don't fully bet like they do others, plus double the odds of Lady Venice, I am ALL IN on Angara, ALL IN....

I like betting against Lady more then I do Bernadini but I think both are beatable tomorrow.

boldruler 07-28-2006 10:35 AM

One of those two might not run, depending on the heat.

Pointg5 07-28-2006 10:40 AM

Thanks for the singles....:) :D :cool:

Scav 07-28-2006 11:03 AM

LOL Mace....I hope both run because I am most definetely unloading on Angara and considering Minister's right.....

KY_Sasquash 07-28-2006 11:12 AM

I agree w/ you on Ministers Bid as it looks like he's the only one with a shot of beating Bernardini, but still think Bernardini looks tough. Angara isnt Lady of Venice's stablemate, she was bought in November by the Sangsters and is now trained by Bill Mott. Upgrade her chances if the course come up wet, but dont think she stands much of chance vs LoV, she's cutting back in distance and has bounced everytime she's ran a '5', which she ran in her prior race. LoV has run consecutive '4-'s, gets 1st Lasix and has had 6 weeks since her last start,plus she's eligible to move forward in only her 6th career start. LoV walks over this field.

Cajungator26 07-28-2006 11:23 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by KY_Sasquash
I agree w/ you on Ministers Bid as it looks like he's the only one with a shot of beating Bernardini, but still think Bernardini looks tough. Angara isnt Lady of Venice's stablemate, she was bought in November by the Sangsters and is now trained by Bill Mott. Upgrade her chances if the course come up wet, but dont think she stands much of chance vs LoV, she's cutting back in distance and has bounced everytime she's ran a '5', which she ran in her prior race. LoV has run consecutive '4-'s, gets 1st Lasix and has had 6 weeks since her last start,plus she's eligible to move forward in only her 6th career start. LoV walks over this field.

Thanks for the info! :D

Scav 07-28-2006 11:32 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by KY_Sasquash
I agree w/ you on Ministers Bid as it looks like he's the only one with a shot of beating Bernardini, but still think Bernardini looks tough. Angara isnt Lady of Venice's stablemate, she was bought in November by the Sangsters and is now trained by Bill Mott. Upgrade her chances if the course come up wet, but dont think she stands much of chance vs LoV, she's cutting back in distance and has bounced everytime she's ran a '5', which she ran in her prior race. LoV has run consecutive '4-'s, gets 1st Lasix and has had 6 weeks since her last start,plus she's eligible to move forward in only her 6th career start. LoV walks over this field.

Oh, my bad on the Angara, that being said, I LIKE HER EVEN MORE with Mott as the trainer..RUBBERBAND TIME

SentToStud 07-28-2006 11:39 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by KY_Sasquash
I agree w/ you on Ministers Bid as it looks like he's the only one with a shot of beating Bernardini, but still think Bernardini looks tough. Angara isnt Lady of Venice's stablemate, she was bought in November by the Sangsters and is now trained by Bill Mott. Upgrade her chances if the course come up wet, but dont think she stands much of chance vs LoV, she's cutting back in distance and has bounced everytime she's ran a '5', which she ran in her prior race. LoV has run consecutive '4-'s, gets 1st Lasix and has had 6 weeks since her last start,plus she's eligible to move forward in only her 6th career start. LoV walks over this field.

Good luck to you, but I can't see LoV here. Up in class, against older and I don't see the kind of pace here she had last race. Maybe she wins at a short number but she won't be passing the likes of Precious Kitten and J'Ray here. I'll be on My Typhoon at 6-1+. Again, good luck.

Betsy 07-28-2006 11:49 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Scav
Lady of Venice and Bernadini

I just had a chance to look at the sheets and here is what I thought

Bernadini: Ran huge for a 3 year old and exploded through his would be top to run another top. Ministier Bid has run huge in two starts and I think he has a huge shot to run a BIGGER number then Bernadini's top, consider MB alot

Lady of Venice: Her stablemate Angara is going to get ignored here by everyone but the sheet players. If you average out the weight they run about same number, and this being said, you get Jara, who people still don't fully bet like they do others, plus double the odds of Lady Venice, I am ALL IN on Angara, ALL IN....

I like betting against Lady more then I do Bernadini but I think both are beatable tomorrow.

I don't see any way Bernardini gets beat; I don't get why MB is getting all this play when he's completely unproven

Betsy 07-28-2006 11:49 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by boldruler
One of those two might not run, depending on the heat.

Where did you hear Tom Albetrani say that? Shoot!!:mad:

boldruler 07-28-2006 11:51 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Betsy
I don't see any way Bernardini gets beat; I don't get why MB is getting all this play when he's completely unproven

Ministers Bid is the only horse with upside. All the others have already proven what they are and none could beat Bernardini. I suspect MB isn't beating him either. 95 degree heat though might play a role in this one.

boldruler 07-28-2006 11:53 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Betsy
Where did you hear Tom Albetrani say that? Shoot!!:mad:

They didn't say he wasn't running, they just are worried about the heat. 95 degrees expected tomorrow. Personally I would just run him in the Haskell. More money and just a weak of a field is expected.

Scav 07-28-2006 12:09 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by boldruler
They didn't say he wasn't running, they just are worried about the heat. 95 degrees expected tomorrow. Personally I would just run him in the Haskell. More money and just a weak of a field is expected.

Winning the Haskell or winning the Travers?

Which one would you choose?

Anyone with a brain would choose the Travers....That is why Bern is running in the Dandy, they can care less about this race, just a tightener

ArlJim78 07-28-2006 12:17 PM

I was all set to think of Lady of Venice as a single today based upon a very impressive performance in the Regret. However after looking over the PP's last night and in view of her M/L odds of 2:1, it looks like she is definitely going to be over bet. She gets a nice weight break but the step up in class looks to be perhaps too steep. She's young and talented and might get the job done but I'll be going wider here including also Angara, Sweet Talker, and My Typhoon.

On the other hand, I can not make a case against Bernardini. He looks like a low priced lock if he shows up.

boldruler 07-28-2006 12:22 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Scav
Winning the Haskell or winning the Travers?

Which one would you choose?

Anyone with a brain would choose the Travers....That is why Bern is running in the Dandy, they can care less about this race, just a tightener


The Haskell is next weekend. The Travers three weeks after it. Plenty of time to win them both.

tycharles01 07-28-2006 12:37 PM

It was said the only way Angara runs is if the turf is soft

Soft = Angara runs My Typhoon and ?? Scratches

Firm = My Typhoon and ?? runs and Angara scratches

So watch for at least one of these horses to be scratched for the race!!!!!!!!

boldruler 07-28-2006 01:00 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by hockey2315
"Anyone with a brain" would know that the Haskell is considered a prep for the Travers. . . and that since Bernardini is so lightly raced, he would probably have no problem running in the Travers with one less week of rest if Albertrani were to use the Haskell as his prep


Exactly. If they got cooler weather, he might be better off racing next weekend anyway. Running in 95 degree heat isn't exactly easy on a horse. I rather run on the Jersey Shore and get cooler weather and 3 weeks rest than 95 degree heat and 4 weeks rest. More money, Grade 1, not grade 2 like the Jim Dandy.

If Roman Ruler can do it I think Bernardini could handle it.

Scav 07-28-2006 01:13 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by boldruler
The Haskell is next weekend. The Travers three weeks after it. Plenty of time to win them both.

You obviously KNOW LESS then you come across.

DO YOU ACTUALLY THINK THEY WOULD RUN BACK IN THE TRAVERS AFTER 20 DAYS....it is ok to do that with claiming horses but you don't do that with horses like Bernadini..

For a guy that like Tagg and applauds him skipping that race at Colonial, this is an amazing comment...

Scav 07-28-2006 01:13 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by SentToStud
Good luck to you, but I can't see LoV here. Up in class, against older and I don't see the kind of pace here she had last race. Maybe she wins at a short number but she won't be passing the likes of Precious Kitten and J'Ray here. I'll be on My Typhoon at 6-1+. Again, good luck.

you might be on to something here iwth Typhoon, She has a favorable sheet also and has run just as fast as Angara

boldruler 07-28-2006 01:19 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Scav
You obviously KNOW LESS then you come across.

DO YOU ACTUALLY THINK THEY WOULD RUN BACK IN THE TRAVERS AFTER 20 DAYS....it is ok to do that with claiming horses but you don't do that with horses like Bernadini..

For a guy that like Tagg and applauds him skipping that race at Colonial, this is an amazing comment...


1) Roman Ruler did it and last I checked the derby and preakness were 2 weeks apart and the Preakness and Belmont 3 weeks.

2) Showing Up had a reaction to a panalog injection and had to skip the race. Tagg just didn't make that public knowledge. SU wasn't tired, the trainer was just looking out for him. Tagg is like a lot of trainers, they don't lie, but they don't tell you everything either. The race wasn't winning him the Eclipse anyway. The Secretariat, Turf Classic, BC Turf plan is much better anyway without the VA Derby thrown in there.


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