SAT - Million Prev. Day & Man O' War @BEL
 

Arlington Park - Million Preview Day - Rain in the forecast

R6 - G3 Arlington Handicap

#5 Cosmonaut - Defending champ will control the race.
#4 Corrupt - Likes it soft and will enjoy the extra ground.
#1 Stream Cat - Long layoff, but capable in this spot.
#2 Distorted Reality - In good form.

Ex & Tri Key - 5 / 1 2 4

R9 - G3 Modesty

#10 Ciao - Usually ranked early in races, so Kirby goes back to Bridgmo.
#11 Lemon Chifton - Lighty raced 5 yr old mare seems to have a ton of talent.
#4 Barbette - Won prep in style and should be up close early.
#6 Ballymore Lady - Ships in from KY after finishing a nice 2nd in the G3 Mint Julep.

Tri Bx - 4 6 10 11

R10 - G2 American Derby

#2 Tizdejavu - Will be a handfull again as soon as the starting gate opens.
#1 Blue Exit - Euro invader will try and keep Tiz company up front and hold on for 2nd. SCR
#7 Prime Realestate - Should relish the extra distance.
#4 Ablaze with Spirit - Has been freshened up and looks to grab a minor award.

R11 - Ill breds Alw 30.5K N1X

#1 Sun for Fun - Should win for fun for Janks.

R12 - Ill breds MSW 28K

#7 Frosty Sky - Most experienced filly picks up red hot jock.
#8 Timeless Miss - You know Earlie will send.
#12 Implied Volatility - Block successfull with 1sters.
#2 Cousin Haley - Finished 3rd in debut and should improve with the addition of lasix.

PK4 - 4 10 11 / 2 4 7 / 1 / 2 5 7 8 11 12 = $54


Belmont

R9 - G1 Man O' War

#4 True Cause
#7 Curlin
#2 Grand Couturier (GB)
#1 Better Talk Now

W/P #4
Ex Bx 4 / 1 2 7

Good Racing Luck

For race 11, Sun for Fun on paper is the best horse by far... but... with all the rain, if the wet poly's playing to early speed (like it usually does), then do not count out Flurtini, as she should be in front early.

JW, good point. Front runners do much better when the poly is wet.

The sun has finally peaked through and hopefully it will help the track dry up a bit.

I hope so... don't feel like being out in the middle of a monsoon, since I'm going over there with some friends in a bit.

We'll find out about the early speed in the first, as the 7 should be loose on the front end.

That is the big question for me in the guaranteed Late P4. On paper the Janks/Emigh looks like a solid single....but I keep going back and forth about including Flurtini.
I'm not a big fan of the 2f stretchout, and Yanez's numbers Sprint/Route don't inspire a lot of confidence, but she should get an ideal inside/on-the-lead trip over the wet poly. I don't really get why she only has one 3f work in preparation for this stretchout, but the sire and dam-sire were both 9f types so her staying for a mile isn't out of the question. I'm confident that she will get clear of the 7, but is there really a chance she might hold off the favorite?
I can't make up my mind yet.
I think I'll wait and see how the track seems in the earlier races (particularly the 5th) before I decide whether or not to single her.

Races 6, 9 and 10 remain on the Turf, which is rated as "Soft.
Races 2, 4 and 8 have been taken off the Turf.

American Derby
 

Why am I the only one who thinks the chalkier Euro is going to give Tizdejavu a lot of pressure up front? Blue Exit will track those two and win at a nice price.

I was live to five horses in the late pick-4.
Those horses ran 2nd, 3rd, 4th, 5th, and 6th.
It wouldn't have paid a ton but still....
I hate this game.

Miraja, the nightcap was a nightmare race to decifer with all the 1sters. Tough that you finished 2 thru 6. Keep firing away.

Timeless Miss ran an "interesting" race in the last. Might want to play that one next out.

I knew it wouldn't pay much, but it ended up being really low (under $200) and probably wouldn't have paid much more if any of mine came in. When I saw that, I was less pissed. But still, finishing 2-6 hurts a little, especially with the winner splitting horses like that to get up.

As a group, we were alive to ALL in the last leg, but it didn't help a whole lot because our spreading in the other legs really failed to help us catch a price whatsoever. We were live to 4 horses in the P6 too, but that didn't work out either.

The P4 will-pays were decent really, considering that Sun for Fun was a HUGE and obvious single.

You were looking at $80 on Napoleon's Retreat, $120 on Bonanza Babe, $190 on Timeless Miss, $214 on Frosty Sky, and $397 on Iris Germanica, compared to $144 for the winner.