Derby Trail Forums - AP Sat. 6/14

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Tough (and not very good) Saturday card at AP today. I probably won't be playing much, but I do have an early pick-3 play of the day.

Race 1
Probable big favorite Live from Apollo towers over these in terms of last out speed figure, but Hobby's often don't run their best off a layoff. Many in here seem live, including the #2 who simply seems to have run better the three times when Graham is aboard.
3) Big Rushlet
2) Freedom Alert
5) Live From Apollo
6) Grande Couer
1) King A.J.
7) Priceless Bull

Race 2
This one was tough too. Mullins runner seems to have perked up with switch to poly. The #8 seems like he might appreciate the stretchout, but the barn's 0 for 24 Sprint/Route number is a bit concerning.
6) Its a Moon
8) Premium Unleaded

Race 3
3) I had a hard time finding a single in any of these races, but Jet A is my top pick of the day. I think he's ready to fire big. It might be a mistake to single against the Slomkowski switching back to the tires, but have to take a stand somewhere.
3) Jet A

1,2,3,5,6,7 / 6,8 / 3

I'd keep my eye on the first race.... to see exactly how wet the poly is (should be drying out), because when it's wet, speed kills and the 7 is lone speed in this race.

I'm going there today and will probably play this....

1,3,5,7/7,3/9,8

I think there are some possible prices today... but later in the card.

I think Big Rushlet will bury Hobby's horse. In the May 2nd race, I gave a very weak pace figure for that race (74 pace 90 final number) and that benefitted Live from Appolo while Big Rushlet took the worst of it. Then Big Rushlet had a rail trip on May 23, a day you didn't want to be near the rail.

Quote:

Originally Posted by miraja2

Tough (and not very good) Saturday card at AP today. I probably won't be playing much, but I do have an early pick-3 play of the day.

Race 1
Probable big favorite Live from Apollo towers over these in terms of last out speed figure, but Hobby's often don't run their best off a layoff. Many in here seem live, including the #2 who simply seems to have run better the three times when Graham is aboard.
3) Big Rushlet
2) Freedom Alert
5) Live From Apollo - won
6) Grande Couer
1) King A.J.
7) Priceless Bull

Race 2
This one was tough too. Mullins runner seems to have perked up with switch to poly. The #8 seems like he might appreciate the stretchout, but the barn's 0 for 24 Sprint/Route number is a bit concerning.
6) Its a Moon - 3rd
8) Premium Unleaded - 2nd

Race 3
3) I had a hard time finding a single in any of these races, but Jet A is my top pick of the day. I think he's ready to fire big. It might be a mistake to single against the Slomkowski switching back to the tires, but have to take a stand somewhere.
3) Jet A - Ran like he was pulling the starting gate around.

1,2,3,5,6,7 / 6,8 / 3

I actually had a halfway decent day thanks to (red board alert) hitting a nice exacta in the 7th, but my Pick-3 plays have certainly gone cold of late.

My Arlington Pick-3 Plays-of-the-Day
Played tickets: 7
Winning tickets: 3
Total Bet: $70
Total Won: $178.10

brianwspencer,
I thought you did a good job on your analysis for races 4 & 6 today. They were both tough races to handicap, but I thought your work was pretty strong.
My one request would be for you to find a way to work in the "would need a bus ticket" line at some point in the meet.