Derby Trail Forums - 6/14: BEL (C/O); CD (Foster Day); & More..

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6/14: BEL (C/O); CD (Foster Day); & More..

There's a $50k carryover at Belmont thanks to my man Pat Kelly's $40+ winner Friday, and the Foster Day card at Churchill has many stars and hopefuls... The Midlantic region has good stakes at Monmouth, Philly and Delaware, and don't forget the Alberta Derby at Stampede Park in Calgary this afternoon!

Post-scratches/changes...

BELMONT PARK

5th: MSW, 3+, 6f-T (P6, P3)

Superbly-matched, well bred maidens from top connections.. Yikes! Note #2 Alabama Man (10-1) from KMc looks like a firster worth including on deep or back-up P6 tix..

Most Likely: #8 SCR
Best Value: #1 Yield Bogey 12-1 2nd
Next Best: #6 Elusive Gift 3-1 4th
Exotics Add: #3 Bedford Arch 4-1 WON

$1 Exacta (3-1) Paid $32.25

6th: MDN CLM, 3+, 1m (G/S, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #1 SCR
Next Best: #6 Sapphire Eyes 3-1 3rd
Best Value: #5 Bishop's Creek 4-1 WON
Exotics Add: #8 Run Lightening Run 20-1 6th

7th: ALW/N1X, 3+, 10f-IT (P4, P3)

Most Likely: #1e Donk entry 7-5 5th/7th
Best Value: #2 Senor Erico 12-1 4th
Next Best: #3 Summer Patriot 8-1 2nd
Exotics Add: #7 Giant Storm 4-1 3rd

8th: Scottish Monk, 3+, 1m-T (P3)

Most Likely: #10 Cosmonaut 2-1 2nd
Best Value: #7 Yankee Master 6-1 5th
Next Best: #9 Tam Lin 7-2 WON
Exotics Add: #6 Sahara Heat 12-1 6th

$1 Exacta (9-10) Paid $13.00

9th: 40th Ogden Phipps (Gr. I), F&M-3+, 8.5f (DD)

Most Likely: #1a Ginger Punch 4-5 WON
Best Value: #4 Golden Velvet 5-1 2nd
Next Best: #3 Moon Catcher 9-2 5th

$1 Exacta (1-4) Paid $3.90

10th: NYB-MSW, F&M-3+, 6f-T (Super)

Most Likely: #1 (POE) Spa Princess 5-2 2nd
Best Value: #9 Seasons Wise 12-1 WON
Next Best: #11 Patsy's Storm 5-1 12th
Exotics Add: #5 Seven in a Row 8-1 4th

$2 Exacta (9-1) Paid $34.00

<$200 P6 Play:

5: 1-2-3-6
6: 5-6-8
7: 1-2
8: 10
9: 1-4
10: 1-9

4x3x2x1x2x2 = 96 x $2 = $192

<$75 P4 Play:

7: 1-2-3
8: 6-7-8-9-10
9: 1
10: 1-4-5-9-11 ($1 Pick 3 (9/1/9) $140.00)

3x5x1x5 = $75

CHURCHILL DOWNS

6th: 34th Fleur De Lis (Gr. II), P6, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #5 Hysterical Lady 4-5 WON
Next Best: #2 Peach Flambe 3-1 5th
Best Value: #4 Kathleens Reel 8-1 3rd

7th: 39th Regret (Gr. III), 3yo-F, 9f-T (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #4 Pure Clan 7-5 WON
Best Value: #2 SCR
Next Best: #3 Zee Zee 2-1 3rd
Exotics Add: #1 C J's Leelee 6-1 2nd

$2 Exacta (4-1) Paid $6.30
$2 Trifecta (4-1-3) Paid $12.30

8th: 7th Northern Dancer (Gr. III), 3yo, 8.5f (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #1 Recapturetheglory 3-1 4th
Best Value: #5 My Pal Charlie 6-1 2nd
Next Best: #3 Pyro 7-5 WON
Exotics Add: #7 Texas Wildcatter 5-1 5th

$1 Exacta (4-1) Paid $17.60

9th: 31st Jefferson Cup (Gr. II), 3yo, 9f-T (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #4 Tizdejavu 3-1 WON
Best Value: #5 Golden Yank 8-1 2nd
Next Best: #6 Old Man Buck 7-2 3rd
Exotics Add: #8 Go West Bert 8-1 7th

$1 Exacta (4-5) Paid $31.50
$1 Trifecta (4-5-6) Paid $97.30

10th: 31st Stephen Foster H. (Gr. I), 3+, 9f (DD, Super)

Most Likely: #1 Curlin 3-5 WON
Next Best: #4 Einstein 5-1 2nd
Best Value: #5 Grasshopper 5-1 4th
Exotics Add: #3 Sam P. 30-1 8th

11th: 32nd Early Times Mint Julep H. (Gr. III), F&M-3+, 8.5f (Super High 5)

Most Likely: #3 Dreaming of Anna 1-1 WON
Best Value: #2 Mama I'm Home 15-1 6th
Next Best: #8 Kiss With a Twist 15-1 3rd
Exotics Add: #6 Street Sounds 8-1 5th
High 5 Play: #7 Ballymore Lady 15-1 2nd

$2 Exacta (3-7) Paid $7.30
$2 Trifecta (3-7-8) Paid $54.40

<$200 P6 Play:

6: 2-5
7: 1-3-4
8: 1-3-5
9: 1-4-5-6-8
10: 1
11: 3

2x3x3x5x1x1 = 90 x $2 = $180

$2 Pick 6 (5/6-2/4/5-2-4-1-3/4/5/10) 5 Correct Paid $2.80 X 9 = $25.20
$2 Pick 6 (5/6-2/4/5-2-4-1-3/4/5/10) 6 Correct Paid $48.00
Total = $73.20... Loss of $106.80

<$75 P4 Play:

8: 1-3-5
9: 1-4-5-6-7-8
10: 1
11: 2-3-6-8

3x6x1x4 = $72

$1 Pick 4 (2-4-1-3/4/5/10) $34.50

MONMOUTH PARK

9th: 39th Eatontown H. (Gr. III), F&M-3+, 8.5f (DD, Super)

Best Value: #8 BEATRIX KIDDO 5-1 8th
Most Likely: #6 Medley 7-2 6th
Next Best: #5 Chestoria 5-1 2nd
Exotics Add: #2 Maddy's Heart 4-1 5th

DELAWARE PARK

7th: 13th Susan's Girl, 3yo-F, 8.5f (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #7 Never Retreat 7-2 3rd
Best Value: #4 Eagle's Song 6-1 5th
Next Best: #6 Love You Not 10-1 6th

8th: MSW, 3+, 8.5f-T (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #4 Praderoso 4-1 2nd
Best Value: #5 Surtax 20-1 7th
Next Best: #2 Buzzin Mon 3-1 4th
Exotics Add: #11 Sound the Charge 12-1 11th

9th: 13th Obeah (Gr. III), F&M-3+, 9f (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #6 Unbridled Belle 3-2 WON
Best Value: #8 Copper State 6-1 2nd
Next Best: #4 Lexi's Star 4-1 5th
Exotics Add: #2 Lemon Drop Mom 9-2 3rd

$1 Exacta (6-8) Paid $16.90
$1 Trifecta (6-8-2) Paid $51.10

<$25 P3 Play:

7: 4-6-7
8: 4-5
9: 2-4-6-8

3x2x4 = $24

Good luck!
Steve

http://www.equibase.com/premium/changes/BEL-changes.asp

5

8 Illini Nation Early

6

1 Pop Rocker Early
9 Obedient John Early

8

2 British Blue Early

9

1 (poe) Spring Waltz Early

10

1A Vladimira Early
13 Lavita E Fortuna Early
14 Shirley Law Early
15 Catchuptothesun Early

http://www.churchilldowns.com/racing...rogram-changes

Race 6 -- 34th running of the $300,000 FLEUR DE LIS (GII)/PICK 6 BEGINS/CARRYOVER $3,852

OVERWEIGHT #1 Aspiring is +1
OVERWEIGHT #4 Kathleens Reel is +2
SCRATCH #6 Cowgirls Don't Cry

Race 7 -- 39th running of the $200,000 REGRET (GIII)

SCRATCH #2 Clearly Foxy
SCRATCH #5 Absolutely Cindy

Race 8 -- 7th running of the $175,000 NORTHERN DANCER (GIII)

SCRATCH #3 Tiz Now Tiz Then
OVERWEIGHT #5 My Pal Charlie is +1

Race 9 -- 31st running of THE $200,000 JEFFERSON CUP (GII)
NO CHANGES

Race 10 -- 27th running of the $1 million-guaranteed STEPHEN FOSTER HANDICAP (GI)

OVERWEIGHT #3 Sam P. is +4
OVERWEIGHT #6 High Blues is +4
OVERWEIGHT #8 Jonesboro is +3
OVERWEIGHT #9 Barcola is +2

RACE 11 -- 32nd running of the $150,000 EARLY TIMES MINT JULEP HANDICAP (GIII)/SUPER HI-5/NO CARRYOVER

SCRATCH #4 Sousaphone
SCRATCH #5 Rustic Flame (IRE)
OVERWEIGHT #6 Street Sounds is +1
OVERWEIGHT #8 Kiss With a Twist is +1
OVERWEIGHT #9 Danzon is +2
SCRATCH #10 Tears I Cry
JOCKEY CHANGE #11 is TBA

http://www.delawarepark.com/race_day_info.php

RACE 7. The Susan's Girl Stake
Scratch #1 Sherine
#3 add Amicar
Scratch #5 Shy Baby
There will be no Superfecta wagering this race

RACE 8. (Turf)
Scratch #1a Nationbuilder
#5 +2
#8 M. Rodriguez rides
#11 rider TBA
Scratch #12 Cool Concept
Scratch #13 Larmon

RACE 9. The Obeah Stake
Scratch #1 Adorable Jane
#5 R. Soodeen rides

Illini Nation scratched in the 5th at Bel

Steve -

You're falling into the Cosmonaut trap! I've done it so many times, I've lost count..

Quote:

Originally Posted by ateamstupid

Steve -

You're falling into the Cosmonaut trap! I've done it so many times, I've lost count..

Have no choice. If you don't single you need to use 4-5 as I did in the P4..

i can't decide if Kiarin will move up Sahara Heat enough - he kinda sucks. . . but if anyone can turn him in to a good horse it's probably KMc. Like Now might come out running. . .

Late pk4's split with pmac

$4

7- 1,9
8- 10
9- 1
10- 1,4,5,6

$1

7- 1,9
8- 7,8,9,10
9- 1,4
10- 1,4,5,6

Good luck to everyone playing! :)

Steve,

I'm trying a new betting angle. Anytime you mention a horse three times on your show and show enthusiasm like you did with Beatrix Kiddo, I', going to bet on it.....so, here we go.

GL,

Spyder

Quote:

Originally Posted by Kasept

Have no choice. If you don't single you need to use 4-5 as I did in the P4..

That's how he gets you..

Quote:

Originally Posted by ateamstupid

That's how he gets you..

Doesn't matter after the mile/quarter event. Wouldn't have had Gravitational there unless I went 6 deep..

Quote:

Originally Posted by TheSpyder

7-2 now... Knew she would get bet a fair amount. Good luck!

Yeesh.... Didn't run... Rank early and never challenged... :wf

Quote:

Originally Posted by ateamstupid

the Cosmonaut trap

Yea, hes been a perpetual underlay, and a perpetual red herring trip horse...

I just can't think of a decent alternative in that race.

First play Churchill Downs race 8

#5 My Pal Charlie

Quote:

Originally Posted by Bobby Fischer

Yea, hes been a perpetual underlay, and a perpetual red herring trip horse...

I just can't think of a decent alternative in that race.

The Cosmonaut trap snares again.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Kasept

Doesn't matter after the mile/quarter event. Wouldn't have had Gravitational there unless I went 6 deep..

i've been looking over the pp's for half an hour trying to understand why i didn't figure out that Gravitational was going to romp by 6 lengths.:confused:

Quote:

Originally Posted by ArlJim78

i've been looking over the pp's for half an hour trying to understand why i didn't figure out that Gravitational was going to romp by 6 lengths.:confused:

Hockey liked him. I guess 2nd/break with Clement having had a chance to see him run and get to know him better? I always lean to the best inside runners on these long grass routes..

Barcola is a lot more attractive at 20-1, but I am not taking a stab here.
Go Curlin.

Churchill Race 10

Curlin should roll and have to get a price in 2nd to make any money.

$1 tri

Curlin with Delightful Kiss with All

Curlin with All with Delightful Kiss