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The last 40 seconds of that interview shared a lot of wisdom about winning.

I don't think pedigree is much of a factor in the majority of races run at each track.

However, besides being a relative of Marty Wolfsen and Affirmed's owners -this guy's claim to fame is winning a big national handicapping tournament in Vegas.

It would take a sample of thousands of races bet before a field of several hundred bettors would sort themselves out - and you could clearly judge who is better than who. The handicapping tournaments are all absolute stab fests. You are dealing with less than 50 races at most - and it becomes a game of who can reach and catch the biggest bomb. Solid $12 winners that should have paid $7 won't do you any good - but helter skelter stabs in wide open races that hit and pay $40 will help carry you to victory.

It would be like taking hundreds of baseball players - giving them 20 pitches and trying to determine who is the best by who hits the most home runs. Basically - they are home run derby type contests.

I say this because a good understanding of pedigree actually becomes a very decisive edge in such a contest. Sneaky first timers bred to be quick do sometimes win and pay $40. Horses with sneaky good turf breeding trying the turf for the first time do sometimes win and pay big. Horses with subtle distance pedigrees who fail in sprints can also make big form reversals on the big stretch out.

You almost have to ignore all the staple fundamentals of handicapping and just stab away at price horses lost in the betting shuffle of wide open races to win these tourneys. It's kind of a perverted way to determine who is better than who.

Doug,
I have a great deal of respect for your opinions but you are way off base on this one. First of all, the person in the video (Steve Wolfson Sr.) did not win the NHC. His son did. However, he and I do discuss racing regularly and his depth of knowledge is amazing. You can say what you want about contests. However, for people like Steve to get back to the NHC year after year, there is more than luck involved. Further, whatever you think about contests does not does not detract from the very soild advice Steve provided in this clip. He is one of the best handicappers alive and anyone would benefit from listening to what he has to say.

Paul

You nailed this imo.

You dont play a tournament like you would bet against the public.
Does not mean that tournament players are not good cappers,
its just a very diff. game.

:zz:

personally I found the clip to be wandering and a scattershot approach.

he mainly knocks people using figure-based handicapping methods, quantitative handicapping, describing its use in a terribly simplistic way.

He describes his method, what he calls comparative handicapping, he talks about looking at horse A and noting that it beat horse B by 2 lengths, and then horse B beat horse C by 3 lengths, so Horse A would beat horse C by five, or something along these lines. Excuse me but what he described IS a quantitative analysis between horse A and C, however his figures are based on beaten lengths between horses that faced each other. I don't know where to begin with the number of ways you can go wrong with that approach. Also there are many sophisticated ways of quantifying WHO a horse faced that go beyond such a simplistic approach.

How he incorporates pedigree into the mix I'd love to know. Horse A beat horse B by 5 lengths, but because he is by Deputy Minister we adjust it to 5.5lengths?

i don't see how you'd use his method on a daily basis.

The oversimplified version:
Making a profit is about just 3 things.

Accurately estimating the probability of an outcome, and accurately Low-estimating the payouts for that outcome after OFF, and Finally using your two estimates to make a wagering decision.

1. Low-Estimating payouts is fairly easy, although it requires familiarity with the specific pools and tracks as far as how the late money plays out.

2. Wagering Decisions can be done with a simple requirement based rule, or formula.

3. The step that require skill is accurately estimating the probability of an outcome.

If you do the above three steps accurately, you will turn a profit at this game. Everything else is about where to look, how to budget your time and money, and keeping your sanity.


The guy in the video doesn't strike me as some handicapping genius, but his advice at the end was golden. - Get with some good horseplayers and discuss the races. Save the ego for the occasional joke or jab.

If I tried hard to give the guy extra credit, maybe you could say that he alluded to the following advice:
understanding the various speed figures and sheets and graphs are a good place to look for Plays.
IF a horse is supposed to bounce on a graph or sheet = it probably pays to estimate your own probability of that horse's chances.
Same thing with a High or Low Beyer fig.

If the fig will affect how the public wagers, you ought to be aware of when that is happening.

I agree.

In fairness though - he didn't have much time to work with in that clip. I have to think a lot of very sharp players would struggle big time at explaining their methods in such a short window of time.

I didn't mean to knock contest players - I've played in a few very minor regional ones myself and won a couple.

I did confuse him with his son - but his approach - emphasising pedigree and comparative handicapping certainly seems way better for finding longshots in tricky races in tournament play as opposed to sound long term betting.

Now you're being much too kind. The man offered absolutely NOTHING of value. In fact, anyone with a basic grasp of the game would be embarrassed that he was presented as an example of an expert in the field.

no doubt that the amount of time was too short to get into any real detail.
i'm just sceptical about the general outline of his approach, how pedigree could play a central role. the highest last race speed figure wins about 25% of all races. what pedigree angle comes close to that?

I think he's testifying next week in front of Congress:rolleyes:

i always look at pedigree.... pedigree was the main reasson i liked willsboro point the other day at 20 something -1 and victorious affair today at 18-1

but you also have been asking for a lot of tips about your handicapping. the occasional good hit does not mean you're approaching things correctly.