5/31: BEL-$166k; HOL-$356k C/O's; CD P4
 

Attempts at Belmont & Hollywood carryovers failed nationwide Friday lending gravitas to an otherwise blase' Saturday... Add in Churchill's three stake P4 and it becomes a fun afternoon!


BELMONT PARK

Be aware that thunderstorms have potential to wreak havoc with this card as protecting turf courses for next week will be priority..

5th: NYB-MSW, 3+, 6f-T

Most Likely: #6 Pano's Love 4-1 4th
Best Value: #8 Senor Musician 6-1 2nd
Next Best: #4 Phobia 5-2 3rd
Exotics Add: #2 City Sneakers 7-2 5th


6th: Pebo's Guy (NYB), 3+, 6f-T

Most Likely: #3 Southern Prince 3-1 9th
Best Value: #7 Silver Timber 6-1 4th
Next Best: #5 Gimme Credit 5-2 5th
Exotics Add: #4 Metro Meteor 12-1 3rd


7th: CLM, 3+, 6f-T

Most Likely: #6 Caesar Beware 3-1 WON
Best Value: #7 Loushe 20-1 10th
Next Best: #2 (POE) Nacascolo 4-1 2nd
Exotics Add: #9 Winzalot 6-1 3rd


8th: NYB-ALW/N1X, 3+, 8.5f-T

Toughest race for me in the sequence.. Note AE's #12/14 are dangerous if getting into field..

Most Likely: #8 Wrintingonthewall 3-1 2nd
Best Value: #10 Northern Storm 8-1 9th
Next Best: #5 Gold Pageantry 4-1 8th
Exotics Add: #1 Criminal Power 20-1 4th


9th: 14th Sands Point (Gr. II), 3yo-F, 9f-T

Many in love with Life is Sweet here, but I can't seperate the top three and will use all of them in multis..

Most Likely: #4 Alwajeeha 5-2 4th
Best Value: #7 I Lost My Choo 3-1 3rd
Next Best: #2 Life is Sweet 2-1 2nd


10th: CLM/N3L, 3+, 1m

Most Likely: #7 Buddha Calling 8-5 2nd
Best Value: #6 SCR
Next Best: #9 Piper's Fort 3-1 WON
Exotics Add: #5 True George 12-1 7th


<$300 P6 Play:

5: 2-4-6-8
6: 3-7
7: 6-7
8: 1-8-10
9: 2-4-7
10: 7

4x2x2x3x3x1 = 144 x $2 = $288



CHURCHILL DOWNS


8th: 34th Dogwood (Gr. III), 3yo-F, 1m

Most Likely: #1 Alina 5-2 4th
Best Value: #5 SCR
Next Best: #4 Secret Gypsy 4-1 3rd
Exotics Add: #2 Keep the Peace 2-1 2nd


9th: 5th Opening Verse (L), 3+, 8.5f-T

Best Value: #3 Rosberg 10-1 6th
Most Likely: #7 Seaside Retreat 5-1 2nd
Next Best: #10 Cloudy's Knight 4-1 7th
Exotics Add: #5 Yate's Black Cat 5-1 5th


10th: 20th Aristides (Gr. III), 3+, 6f

Most Likely: #4 Indian Chant 2-1 WON
Best Value: #1 Esperamos 4-1 5th
Next Best: #2 Elite Squadron 7-2 3rd


11th: MSW, F&M-3+, 1m-T

Most Likely: #9 Gloria Goodbody 7-2 3rd
Best Value: #6 Lucky Flyer 5-1 4th
Next Best: #3 Press Leak 3-1 WON
Exotics Add: #10 Sauce Bernaise 6-1 8th


<$50 P4 Play:

8: 1-5
9: 3-7
10: 1-2-4
11: 3-6-9-10

2x2x3x4 = $48



HOLLYWOOD PARK


4th: MSW, F&M-3+, 9f-T

Most Likely: #6 Foreign 3-1 5th
Best Value: #2 Asturias 12-1 7th
Next Best: #5 Quick Commander 4-1 WON
Exotics Add: #9 Indy Blaze 5-1 8th


5th: 57th Milady H. (Gr. II), F&M-3+, 8.5f

Most Likely: #6 Zenyatta 4-5 WON
Best Value: #8 Saint Teresita 8-1 2nd
Next Best: #7 Double Trouble 8-1 5th
Exotics Add: #2 SCR


6th: MSW, F&M-3+, 6f

Most Likely: #8 Scout About 5-2 WON
Next Best: #3 Sleepin In 3-1 2nd
Best Value: #2 Saint's Crown 8-1 4th
Exotics Add: #5 Flashing Forward 4-1 3rd


7th: CLM, F&M-4+, 6f-T

Most Likely: #11 Pindaric 9-2 7th
Best Value: #7 Whatsitgonnatake 8-1 WON
Next Best: #2 Missoula 6-1 2nd
Exotics Add: #5 Newport Topper 12-1 5th


8th: 55th Californian (Gr. II), 3+, 9f

Most Likely: #4 Surf Cat 5-2 3rd
Next Best: #1 Heatseeker 8-5 WON


9th: CLM, 4+, 6f

Most Likely: #1 Grits 6-1 4th
Next Best: #13 Common Trust 7-2 3rd
Best Value: #10 Shootist 12-1 11th
Exotics Add: #2 Forest Danz 6-1 13th
High 5 Play: #3 World War 9-2 2nd


<$300 P6 Play:

4: 2-6
5: 6-7-8
6: 3-8
7: 2-5-7-11
8: 4
9: 1-10-13

2x3x2x4x1x3 = 144 x $2 = $288


Good luck!
Steve

Tough card here at Belmont. For what it's worth here is my take after reviewing Steve's post:


5th I think you missed Prime Obsession #5 WON
who despite being steadied and pinched back at the break got up for 3rd in his last, missing by 3. A length behind your top choice. In a race lacking alot of speed I like the 4, Phobia as well.


6th Southern Prince # 3 LAST has the controlling speed. Silver Timber 7 FORTH, second off the layoff is hard to not see but Redefined 6 SECOND, coming in off an 8 month layoff comes in with a solid work tab, will get covered up by Kenny D. and should be driving in the stretch.


7th Caesar Beware WON
makes a big drop in company indicating Mclaughlin wants to make room for all those 2 yo's from Darley/Shadwell and has a couple works with the Belmont crew who tend to tighten the screws well. Nacascolo 2, is a solid second choice. I don't see Loushe doing much though. Very erratic performer against much less company than he will see here.


8th Flip a coin time. I like Writingonthewall 8, but hate betting first time against winners. But he has been impressive in his only two starts and figures to improve, 2nd off layoff. Not sure if he'll get the distance but is bred well for the turf. Like Gold Pageantry 5 here with second off layoff. But Typhoon Tycoon WON
looks interesting. 1st off 5 month layoff but 1st time lasix and a switch to Alan Garcia who has his moments but has been riding very well with alot of confidence.


9th Raw Silk WON
will take them all out for a ride and does come in with a bullet work but he won't sustain his run. He does ensure a bit of an honest pace for the Alwajeeha FOURTH/I Lost My Choo SECOND freight train. Life Is Sweet THIRD is formidable but I think Kenny D will have a sour taste in his mouth at the end.


10th Buddha Calling SECOND
is a great single in a fairly single-less card. However, Piper's Fort WON
, the 9 has been putting up good fig's of late, runs well on wet or dry and adds Blinks. Add that he is 2 for 3 at the distance and, well, there goes the single.

Steve every freakin time I've tried to beat Surf Cat, I get burned! Though I love Heatseeker, my fear of another torching is stronger so I will include them both!:D

I'd like to get a slightly smaller ticket in myself today on this and may also go with both of them... Will wait for scratches to see if we get some help out there today...

I didn't read all of that. Might want to put a space between the paragraphs and cut back on the wind a lil bit.

FIFY (and everyone else..) :p

Thanks for the advice. New here and I can go off a bit. Better?

Ok. Well good luck putting money on the races at Belmont today. There's a very good chance they'll have to cancel this afternoon.

cancel the turf or the entire card?

-bt-

Well if they get what central Indiana was getting last night they'll have no choice but to cancel.

KEEP CHECKING TO SEE IF T-STORMS ARRIVE AND AFFECT TURF DECISION:
http://www.equibase.com/premium/changes/BEL-changes.asp


1
5 Kiln Creek Early
6 Silver Prospector Early


2
1 (poe) Tourism Early
6 Song of the Lynx Early


5
1A Look Now Early
2B Blazing Buddha Early
10 Kid Doc Early


6
10 Gold and Roses Early
11 Whistlin' Early
12 Market Psychology Early


7
11 Heavyweight Early


8
1A Flag Is Flying Early
11 Takemywife Please Early
12 Stepaside Early
13 Carry the Day Early
14 Sky Dragon Early


10
6 Jacinth Early

Churchill Downs
 

http://www.churchilldowns.com/racing...rogram-changes


Race 8 -- 34th running of the $100,000-added Dogwood Stakes (Grade III)

NO CHANGES



Race 9 -- 5th running of the $100,000-added Opening Verse

OVERWEIGHT #1 Prom Shoes is +3

OVERWEIGHT #3 Rosberg is +3

OVERWEIGHT #8 Therecomesatiger is +3

SCRATCH #9 Obi Wan Kenobi

SCRATCH #11 Bold Start

JOCKEY CHANGE #12 is John McKee



Race 10 -- 20th running of the $125,000-added Aristides Stakes (Grade III)

NO CHANGES



Race 11 -- SUPER HI-5/NO CARRYOVER

SCRATCH AE #13 Santana Love

SCRATCH AE #14 Fine Line

Darn, I am 30 minutes north of Belmont in Westchester and it is already starting to rain here. Have to make my bet at the last minute which will be around 3 pm.

Welcome to the board Cappy.

Thanks

wow, as if it couldn't get much worse..... might as well stick a fork in this day w/ all that rain


-bt-:zz:

Track sloppy but turf still "ON" and firm as of now... Keep checking...

thought I heard them announce that they are off the turf at Belmont

It's listed as firm right now. . .

apparently I heard an off the turf announcement for another track....not Belmont