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-   -   5/25: Belmont (5th-10th; C/O) (http://www.derbytrail.com/forums/showthread.php?t=22743)

Kasept 05-25-2008 06:12 AM

5/25: Belmont (5th-10th; C/O)
 
More or less took Saturday off, but was struck watching the day's races at the continual value in the P4 pools. At Arlington in the late P4, ATR house capper Gus Alonso gave you the three toughest-to-find winners, and the wager brought back $8,666 for $1. The parlay was $2,900. Amazing..

P6 carryovers at Belmont ($56k) and Hollywood ($117k) Sunday.. Like the Belmont series and feel like trying to use 2 singles is the right approach...


BELMONT PARK


5th: MDN CLM, F&M-3+, 6.5f (P6, P3)

Most Likely: #1 (POE) SCR #1a goes WON
Best Value: #9 Philosophizer 15-1 4th
Next Best: #6 Lovely Wildcat 6-1 3rd
Exotics Add: #5 SCR


6th: NYB-ALW/N1x, F&M-3+, 6f-IT (G/S, P3, DD, Super)

Frankel returnee looks like a must-single as a quagmire lies beyond her..

Most Likely: #4 HEATHER'S ANGEL 2-1 5th
Best Value: #10 Lost Without You 12-1 WON
Next Best: #7 Nordberg 4-1 11th
Exotics Add: #9 Twistaway 8-1 10th


7th: MSW, F&M-3+, 8.5f-T (P4, P3)

Most Likely: #5 Receipt 3-1 WON
Next Best: #7 Grand Advice 7-2 7th
Best Value: #4 Great Thought 5-1 5th
Exotics Add: #9 Lanai 8-1 8th

$1 Pick 3 (1/10/5) Paid $233.50


8th: NYB-OC/N2X, 3+, 6f-IT (P3, Super)

Most Likely: #5 CAN'T REFUSE 6-1 2nd
Best Value: #6 Mondo Diverso 12-1 9th
Next Best: #7 Russian Sage 8-1 WON
Exotics Add: #9 Posted 12-1 3rd

$1 Exacta (7-5) Paid $51.50
$1 Trifecta (7-5-9) Paid $519.50
$1 Pick 3 (10/5/7) Paid $346.50



9th: 58th Vagrancy (Gr. II), F&M-3+, 6.5f (DD)

Scratch #1 Bedside Story, but that's not much help in very tricky version of NY standard for sprinting distaffers. Dream Rush working well for return, but new in the game owner has been 'unlucky', and former West Point miss needs to be at her best today. Jerkens has been cleverly working Any Limit up to this, while Dutrow's Looky Yonder turns around quick but is a serious threat on best. Baroness Thatcher was dead game just missing to Intangaroo Derby Day, and even Sangrita, an also ran in previous stakes tries, is hardly impossible here..

Best Value: #4 Any Limit 10-1 4th
Most Likely: #3 Dream Rush 4-5 2nd
Next Best: #6 Baroness Thatcher 3-1 3rd


10th: CLM/N3L, F&M-3+, 8.5f-T (Super)

Most Likely: #3 Eulogize 5-1 2nd
Next Best: #7 Bella Attrice WON
Next Best: #5 Fiddler's Princess 6-1 3rd
Exotics Add: #10 Dance Lesson 20-1 4th

$2 Exacta (7-3) Paid $17.00
$1 Trifecta Box Paid $27.50
$1 Superfecta (7-3-5-10) Paid $386.50



<$250 P4 Play:

5: 1-3-6-9
6: 4
7: 4-5-7
8: 5
9: 2-3-4-5-6
10: 3-7

4x1x3x1x5x2 = 120 x $2 = $240


Good luck!
Steve

Kasept 05-25-2008 12:04 PM

http://www.equibase.com/premium/changes/BEL-changes.asp

fpsoxfan 05-25-2008 12:11 PM

Great Job Andy
 
If anyone was watching the Nyra feed this morning, you would have noticed that Andy gave out the 1st race triple cold for 300 and the exacta for 100.
Me, being a moron keyed the 1 and the 6 on top of the 1-2-6.
It came in 6-2-1. Nice work Andy!

kenny p 05-25-2008 01:55 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by fpsoxfan
If anyone was watching the Nyra feed this morning, you would have noticed that Andy gave out the 1st race triple cold for 300 and the exacta for 100.
Me, being a moron keyed the 1 and the 6 on top of the 1-2-6.
It came in 6-2-1. Nice work Andy!

Where do you watch the nyra feed? Thanks KP

fpsoxfan 05-25-2008 02:11 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by kenny p
Where do you watch the nyra feed? Thanks KP

Right on the capital otb channel. I'm not sure what they call it now. It's the Sunday handicapper show that Andy's been on for the past few weeks.

kenny p 05-25-2008 02:19 PM

Thanks ..I am on Long I. We dont get that. Can it be watched online?

Bigsmc 05-25-2008 02:31 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by kenny p
Where do you watch the nyra feed? Thanks KP

Do you bet through an ADW? If so, that is where you can see the track feed.

I watched a bit of it on Youbet today.

the_fat_man 05-25-2008 02:40 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DaHoss9698
Hopefully NYRA puts it online, because I know more than a few people that like to watch it, especially with BTW being on it now.

Here's hoping we get similar UPGRADES in the video and chartmaking department.

the_fat_man 05-25-2008 02:56 PM

That was a very betable horse.

kenny p 05-25-2008 03:00 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Bigsmc
Do you bet through an ADW? If so, that is where you can see the track feed.

I watched a bit of it on Youbet today.

I bet through nyra rewards. I'll try to see if I can watch it on Youbet. Thanks KP

Kasept 05-25-2008 03:22 PM

Late 4.. $72

7: 4-5-7-8
8: 5-6-7
9: 2-4-6
10: 3-7

Kasept 05-25-2008 03:24 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DaHoss9698
I phucked it up royally of course. I believe BTW gave that horse out as well this morning.

I missed out on the straight play too. Liked as best value and tried to single Heather's Angel who I fell in love with...

mclem10011 05-25-2008 03:30 PM

Steve.....
 
Nice call on Receipt.

the_fat_man 05-25-2008 03:38 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DaHoss9698
I phucked it up royally of course. I believe BTW gave that horse out as well this morning.

This is yet another one of those situations where the horse was a play off my charts but I couldn't pull the trigger after watching the replay of her last race.

I don't know about today, but last time BTW did the show, he mentioned that Sweet Madness' last race looked better because the runner up might've moved too soon.

Well, I don't think that Lost Without You moved too soon last out but she was widest, chasing a horse that held for 3rd, and got last moved by a horse that got a better tip.

I bash Hill quite a bit but this was a very nice ride today. He got her from the 10 hole to the rail by early turn and sucked along until he came out entering, and drew off. He doesn't win if he stays outside like last time.

Kasept 05-25-2008 03:47 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by mclem10011
Nice call on Receipt.

Thx.. Why couldn't I have fallen in love THERE as the single...?

Kasept 05-25-2008 03:59 PM

Great job by Kent holding the 1 after breaking through the gate...

Kasept 05-25-2008 04:01 PM

Didn't miss this one!


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