Sloppy Derby M/L
 

Been trying to figure out what the true odds will be at post, and Battaglia's morning line on the Derby (which is usually decent) is terrible. There isn't any combination which comes even close to the odds he lists; you can expect about 30% higher odds on any runner in the field. For example, if Big Brown is 7/2, the MINIMUM Colonel John and Pyro would have to be is 12-1 for all of the other horses he has at 15-1 and 20-1 to be close to those prices.

Just an FYI so you can better determine what your choice will be at the post.

Ya I thought everyone seemed too low - but I can see how he had trouble. When I tried to make a line the other day it felt like every horse would be in the 20-1 range.

My M/L based on what my value of the horses are:
1 Cool Coal Man 15-1
2 Tale of Ekati 20-1
3 Anak Nakal 100-1
4 Court Vision 40-1
5 Eight Belles 12-1
6 Z Fortune 12-1
7 Big Truck 40-1
8 Visionaire 30-1
9 Pyro 10-1
10 Colonel John 7-1
11 Z Humor 80-1
12 Smooth Air 15-1
13 Bob Black Jack 40-1
14 Monba 25-1
15 Adriano 30-1
16 Denis of Cork 20-1
17 Cowboy Cal 30-1
18 Recapturetheglory 30-1
19 Gayego 12-1
20 Big Brown 7-2

Yes, the morning line comes out to a 28% takeout. Ridiculous.

I have a spreadsheet that I offered here (for free) last year which will take a set of odds and adjust it to any takeout you specify (or to no takeout, if you want a "fair odds" line). Anyway, I put in Battaglia's odds and here's what you get with a 16% takeout:

Cool Coal Man 23
Tale of Ekati 18
Anak Nakal 35
Court Vision 23
Eight Belles 23
Z Fortune 18
Big Truck 59
Visionaire 23
Pyro 7
Col John 4.7-1
Z Humor 35
Smooth Air 23
Bob Black Jack 23
Monba 18
Adriano 35
Denis of Cork 23
Cowboy Cal 23
Recapturetheglory 23
Gayego 18
Big Brown 7-2

The rounding actually moves this to a 17.2% takeout, but at least that's in the ballpark. (oops, wrong sport metaphor)

btw, phil, from the title of this thread I thought you were going to post an ML for a sloppy track! I immediately went to weather.com to see how bad the weather was going to be!

--Dunbar

Those odds are consistent with a 13.2% takeout, Phil.

--Dunbar

Cool. I try to value them on NY Takeout Rules (believe KY is 15% WPS, right?)

And again, I'd recommend it to anyone who's interested in putting together a good fair odds line.

I don't want to volunteer you to start sending it out again, Dunbar, but I've got it on both of my computers and use it pretty often and think it's really helpful -- and that others may want to seriously think about using it since there's so much you can do with it.

i use it also (thanks dunbar)

its a good tool to use to run different scenarios and see the effect.

also, where is the morning line for a sloppy track?

KY is 16%, Phil. NY is now 15%, if Brisnet is right. Here's a link I use to check on takeout:

http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/stati...out&header=off

--Dunbar

Thanks for the nice comments, Brian and Jim. It's very satisfying to hear stuff like that.

--Dunbar