Early Forecast for Oaks/Derby days
 

50-50 chance of rain and t-storms starting early morning Friday and ending by noon Saturday. Should be less than an inch total rainfall for the period.

That is from the NWService regular and agricultural forecasts...

Worst case scenario for Sat... good/good

I trust 4-day-out weather forecasts about as often as I miss KRIM.

What if it does come up "muddy"? Do any of these horses like or ran in the mud? I can't seem to recall a race leading up to the derby being muddy. Seems like all the excuses have been because of the sythentics not mud. Be a total tail-spin if it does happen to be sloppy on top of all the other "questions".

i think the gotham was on a sloppy track.

Oh yes! Visionaire in the slop/fog. Might be worth a ponder if it happens to downpour Saturday.

The BCJ was of course run in the slop. Off the top of my head, I know Pyro and Tale of Ekati are Derby contenders that ran in that race. There are probably one or two others as well that I can't think of right now.
One of the Zs perhaps?

just keep in mind what happened the last time there was a rainy day at churchill. i think the top three early were also the top three late, with smarty passing lion heart.

didn't z fortune finish fourth in the juvie?

Nope. I looked it up. Z Humor, but not Z Fortune, ran in the race.
Tale of Ekati finished 4th.
Chart: http://www.kentuckyderby.com/2008/si...62007bcjuv.pdf

If it rains, I'm going to contemplate a pretty strong bet on Big Brown. I haven't seen his tommies, but slop at Churchill would seem to favor the speed.

Close, Limehouse (who was 3rd most of the race) got passed in the shadow of the wire by the closing Imperialism.

See contest thread and predict the Derby weather.

Come on, I'm trying to have a contest man.

Spyder

Which reminds me, got the Masters program in the mail yesterday- thank you!!!

You know what I wish we had more of? Derby Trail meteorologists that make declarative statements about track condition 4-5 days away from the race, and endless hypothetical discussions about who will run well in the slop.