I realize that Prado has a reputation
 

And actually still puts in a good ride here and there

BUT

how in the world can Serpe justify keeping him on Angelouie after that horror trip of a ride last time out?

Nobody is more amazed than I am at how trainers constantly ride the same rider who butchered a horse the previous time, but at least he is riding someone who is usually very good, and in Phil Serpe's case he probably doesn't want to alienate Prado.

There was a NY Bred on the turf last week that John Hertler trained, who clearly should have been second in his prior start, and was totally butchered by, I think, Sebastion Morales. In Morales defense, it was possibly the first turf race he had ridden, or one of the first, but he clearly cost the horse second ( I think he was fifth ). Hertler rode him back and the horse finished third and absolutely should have been unsaddled. But, who knows what Hertler's options were.

Back to the horse in question......Serpe is pretty tough so I would guess that Prado was apologetic. I'm not sure what replacing as good a rider as Prado figures to get him. In this case it's probably, at least somewhat, a question of alternatives.

Marty Magee's story in the DRF on Borel talks about the significant turnover in the top ranks of the jockey kingdom. Long gone is the lone list of top-notch riders.

I ride a significant amount of distance daily.

A few years ago I almost got killed by a motorist in Borough Park. Took me quite a while to get my nerve back, so I can certainly understand what it's like to come back from a spill.

There's a piece of road on my daily ride to the park where there's a sudden loop, very similar to that found in track turns. It's two lanes and cars have a bad habit of pinching from the inside lane on that turn, cause motorists could basically give a **** about the safety of cyclists. It only took a single case of almost getting killed to ALWAYS be aware that cars will pinch when taking that turn and ensure that I'll never be in danger there again.

Now, jockeys are like motorists. They could give a **** about other jockeys to their inside and they ALWAYS pinch on the turns. I find it beyond inexcusable that not only did Prado get pinched on the 1st turn on Angelouie last out, when he really had no business, nothing to gain by, being in that spot, but, it seems, he made quite a habit of it at the GP meet. This, from a journeyman? This, from someone who, arguably, was a top 5 rider as recently as last year?

He really needs to sit down before he hurts himself.

Prado's achilles heel has always been an overinfatuation with the rail.

See Tale of Ekati

Tale of Ekati isn't a bad example. The first time Prado rode him was in the Louisiana Derby, and while it was mostly the start that compromised him, Prado's burying him on the rail thereafter absolutely hurt him further.

He learned from that mistake in the Wood and kept him outside.

Geez, I hope not. Tale of Ekati was never on the rail in the Wood.

Except for about 30 yards from the wire when he dove inside to pass the tiring War Pass (who sort of wandered out at that point, probably due to the injury)... which i would hardly call riding the rail.

He did get quite buried and shuffled back in the La Derby, but he might have needed the race anyways... I'm scratching my head on what to think of this guy in the Derby. I will probably reluctantly toss him.

Let me reiterate....Tale of Ekati was never on the rail in the Wood Memorial.

Be very careful about tossing that Sunday Silence blood.

Because this is one of the rare threads this time of year that started out NOT being about the Kentucky Derby, I think we should at least make an effort to keep it that way. Also, I don't know exactly how those distance numbers are calculated....because I don't pay any attention to them.

As for Prado, I would still take him in a big race over almost any other jock out there.

My betting experiences since Prado has come back to ride since he was sidelined is he is not at the same level prior to the accident. Which still makes him a better than average rider compared to most, but as we kind of touched on the other day with Eric and others. Riders coming back from injuries is never an easy thing.

Thoughts on his Derby chances?
I really don't think he gets the distance.

he was 3 wide for the first 5-6 furlongs of that race...there is no doubting that.

an excerpt from an article (link below) by james scully, from 4/24. i saw the article linked on equidaily, and found it interesting.

TALE OF EKATI -- 100, 92, 94

Strengths: An excellent winner of the seven-furlong Futurity (G2) at two, Tale of Ekati (Tale of the Cat) was a very well-regarded colt entering 2008 but didn't run a step in the Louisiana Derby after breaking poorly in his first start back. He earned a measure of redemption in the Wood Memorial, gamely wearing down War Pass to win by a half-length, and Tale of Ekati received a commendable 100 Speed rating despite being softened up by the fast pace. He's eligible to improve off that tightener, and his female breeding suggests that he will relish a classic distance. The bay colt's stalk-and-pounce style could also prove effective.

Weaknesses: Tagg drilled the slow-starting colt twice from the gate following the Louisiana Derby, and Tale of Ekati will risk being compromised in traffic if he misses the break on Derby Day. While his female family is strong, sire Tale of the Cat doesn't inspire much confidence at 10 furlongs. Tale of Ekati has raced only twice this year, and one can legitimately question whether he's good enough at this point in his career to win the Derby.


http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/edito...e.cgi?id=11296

Prado was buried on the rail with at least a half dozen turf runners at the Spa last summer should have had their pictures taken.