At what odds will Big Brown be a good wager?
 

Assuming he is not post 17 and out

How did you make a poll?

Nice job.

Spyder

Listen, I know that this is the Kentucky Derby and people are excited, but doesn't it make sense to just wait and see things like post positions and how horses work on the track before we dive into debates that are this specific in nature? I mean at this point, we don't even know for sure who is going to be in the damn race. Does it make sense to think about a question that might not even matter come race day if he does draw outside?
Between this and the Pyro "foot-problem" thread, I'm starting to get tired of the race already.

This would all be a good point if it weren't for the fact that the name of this
site is DERBYTRAIL and on this site people are inclined to talk about the DERBY. You just have to weed
your way through the shiatty threads. This particular thread isn't all that bad.

Well I thought it was pretty bloody obvious that I think there are plenty of legitimate ways to discuss the Derby contenders and their various attributes this far away from the race. I am just not convinced that a discussion about whether a particular horse is a good bet at 7/2, but perhaps not at 3/1, all predicated on specific post position considerations is one of them at this point.
To each his own I suppose, but this particular discussion/poll strikes me as pointless.

It would take more than 4-1 for me to bet on him considering his lack of seasoning. Much more. That's a rule I won't try to break at a short price.

Now in the P4, that's another story......

No doubt. This is why I've pretty much just read through most of these threads and haven't commented. I voted for 7/2, but if he draws a lousy post that would change for me.

I'm actually encouraging more Pyro & Big Brown threads. I have the over/under set at 22, starting with this past Saturday until the Derby.

Then I guess you won't be betting him.

I'd need 5-1 before I could consider it value and considering I already have All Others from the 2nd Derby Pool at 6-1 there is no reason for me to pile more on that. I'll play him on top of a couple tris and try and beat him everywhere else.

I put a 7 day limit on the poll, about the time the field is set and post positions drawn

I'm trying to gauge the attitude towards Big Brown on this forum, knowing how much us "wise" handicappers want to find a sensible alternative, to get an idea of how many will defect back to him at what odds

Nor will I

He'll be the biggest underlay in years

I've spent the past few days watching many of the preps of the major players in this field and Big Brown looks very impressive. I'm not touting him just yet, but at this point I'd be very surprised if he's not in the top 4.

i put 4-1. but thats as high as you went. he would have to be 10-1 before i would even think about it. 3 races 2 were meant for turf, the fla derby was 1 good race vs who ? turf because your feet hurt, to a mile and quarter on a track as hard as CD. good luck.

Well, can't we say that about any of the Prep races?
Don't forget the fact that Big Brown registered two consecutive 106 Beyers.
I'm looking hard, but other than Pyro I'm not seeing anyone else that has done that.

you said it . pyro. anything over 6-1 is a steal.

You may be right.

i hope so i'm using him. and all the "big brown" hype is coming to fruition just like i predicted. even on here where these folks are supposed to know horse racing . i've seen many big browns crash and burn on derby day. i could be wrong but almost every derby falls apart and someone comes late. its the perfect scenario for a horse like pyro .

TG stated last year that "most" derby winners are within 3 lengths of the lead going into the first turn. Horses that fit this profile and can get 10F will be tough to beat in any derby.

You need more options....I need 6-1

thats right but they are all looking for position going in. then horses settle. plus i don't think big brown will get 10f. the horse has 3 races, 2 were meant for turf. it has foot problems written all over it. i also think his breeding has limitations for distance. with all those knocks i can not accept a short price. we are supposed to be gamblers and handicappers . how come value means nothing to alot of these folks ? thunder gulch you are a smart bettor, betting the fave on derby day is usually a suckers bet . street sense last year at 9-2 was a good bet, big brown on top at anything less than 5-1 is well, in my opinion dumb .