Gotham weather forecast
 

looking very wet. 100% chance of rain!

That's more than just nasty!

Not much better for us upstaters.

How will the track play with one to two inches or more of rain forecast? I appreciate any feedback as I am handicapping for a contest there tomorrow on the whole card.

Probably ALOT fairer than usual.

fairer ? do you mean faster ?

i think he meant fairer

With the weather as it is Passero will have rolled and sealed the track to roughly the consistency of the Long Island Expressway. If the the track is anything but a quagmire it is going to be inside speed all day.

Wet weather figures to mean that there will be even more money bet on Saratoga Russell because he won on the slop in his last start at Gulfstream, and because the AQ Inner is what it is.
Personally I absolutely hate this horse in this spot, despite those factors in his favor.
Stretching a colt by Trippi out from 6f straight to a 2-turn, 8.5f race while making a bit of a class jump doesn't strike me as a recipe for victory. When you add in Violette's Sprint-to-Route numbers (56 .07 $0.40), I think this colt should probably be avoided.

The problem I see in this race is that I don't think Saratoga Russell will have anything left in the stretch, but I can't figure out who exactly will be the ones to run by him. None of them look particularly promising so, by default, I would probably land on Giant Moon if I had to pick someone.

The radar for the Aqueduct region looks OK right now. It may be some hit and miss rain today.

Hey fp, I'll be at the Herkimer OTB today-stop by and I'll by some drinks:D

Herk, who's that old guy that always in there? Kinda greasy looking with a rather big nose.....he's been there forever and sometimes is annoying when he gets swearing.

Hey, that's me! :D

No seriously, I guess I don't know who your talking about-but there are plenty of annoying people there sometimes. There is one drunk old guy that plays every Karakoram horse.

Stop by sometime, I usually have my DT hat on.

Be very careful about equating slop at Gulfstream to slop anywhere else. And also, sloppy tracks on the inner are often not speed favoring and if it doesn't rain anymore, it hasn't really since before midnight, the track could be changing.

No matter the track condition, I don't like Saratoga Russell in the Gotham.
I really don't like him if the track is wet, because I think he will be even more overbet because of his performance in the slop at GP. Your points about the difference between the slop at GP and the slop on the inner is yet another reason that I think this horse should be avoided. Many people will bet him off of a sloppy race that is misleading in terms of any similarity to today's circumstances.
Of course, if there is no more rain, I guess it doesn't really matter.

It is pouring now...and here is our Breeders Cup 2007 like forecast...

Hour-by-Hour™ Weather

Noon
53°F
Rain

2pm
52°F
Rain

4pm
48°F
Rain

6pm
45°F
Rain