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-   -   How does this horse pay $55?! (http://www.derbytrail.com/forums/showthread.php?t=19931)

hockey2315 02-04-2008 12:47 PM

How does this horse pay $55?!
 
I was going through the weekend's results at Philly Park this weekend because I'm thinking about starting to follow that track and came across this result from Saturday:

7th Race

Next Post 3:35 Off: 3:08 | 6 Furlongs | 3 Year Olds | Maiden Special Weight | Purse: $40,000

# Horse Jockey Weight Win Place Show
7 Tempered Fate Flores J L 121 55.80 22.00 12.00
9 Really King E L Jr 121 17.60 6.60
2 Two Dragons Vega H 121 4.20

Winning Trainer: Dutrow Anthony W - Owner: Zayat Stables, LLC

How does a Tony Dutrow/Zayat horse pay that much at Philly?! He's by Distorted Humor and was the sale topper ($260K) at the OBS June '07 .
His dam is also a 1/2 to Anees. . .

What am I missing here?!

Coach Pants 02-04-2008 12:52 PM

Pom Poms?

GPK 02-04-2008 12:55 PM

Dutrow shows .08% with first time starters from 60. Horse also only shows 1 work:rolleyes: There were certainly a few more in there that made more sense on paper...but hey..what do you do?

GPK 02-04-2008 12:58 PM

When the hell did David Cohen start riding at Philly Park?

blackthroatedwind 02-04-2008 12:59 PM

I don't know how he paid $55......but I do know why he won.

I bet the second horse.

GPK 02-04-2008 12:59 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind
I don't know how he paid $55......but I do know why he won.

I bet the second horse.


You bet Philly Park?

blackthroatedwind 02-04-2008 01:03 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by GPK
You bet Philly Park?


This is probably the first horse I have made an actual bet on at Phili Park in a long time.

Take a look at the pps of the second horse. He had a monsterous against the bias trip when finishing third to that Kiaran trap in the Swale at Gulfstream.

GPK 02-04-2008 01:07 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind
This is probably the first horse I have made an actual bet on at Phili Park in a long time.

Take a look at the pps of the second horse. He had a monsterous against the bias trip when finishing third to that Kiaran trap in the Swale at Gulfstream.


Ok...I see where he was 3rd to Wincat in his last out in a MSW.

Help me with the Swale at Gulfstream part?

hockey2315 02-04-2008 01:09 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by GPK
Ok...I see where he was 3rd to Wincat in his last out in a MSW.

Help me with the Swale at Gulfstream part?

Wincat was the trap in the Swale

blackthroatedwind 02-04-2008 01:10 PM

Wincat finished third in the Swale.

GPK 02-04-2008 01:11 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by hockey2315
Wincat was the trap in the Swale


I thought thats what he was meaning...I just read it funny

GPK 02-04-2008 01:14 PM

IMO...it seems one of 2 things happened.

1. Horse ran tons better than they thought it could (HIGHLY DOUBTFUL:rolleyes: )

2. The layed this one over.

blackthroatedwind 02-04-2008 01:18 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by GPK
IMO...this is what happened.

Horse ran tons better than they thought it could



FTFY.



The other stuff here is absurd redboarding.

GPK 02-04-2008 01:20 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind
FTFY.



The other stuff here is absurd redboarding.


I thought I was hip on the lingo....but what the hell is FTFY?

blackthroatedwind 02-04-2008 01:21 PM

Fixed That For You.

GPK 02-04-2008 01:24 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind
Fixed That For You.


How often do you think that happens?

Horse has one published work and "ok...lets give him a shot and see how he runs"??

blackthroatedwind 02-04-2008 01:30 PM

I wouldn't be so specific but I think connections are frequently fooled. Most of the time they think they have a runner and are wrong but most big priced firsters, especially from reasonably high profile connections, are surprises.

Anthony Dutrow is a sharp guy, and as was pointed out, the Phili pools aren't very big, so it's pretty unlikely they were at all excited by this horse's chances, at least in this race.

GPK 02-04-2008 01:38 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind
I wouldn't be so specific but I think connections are frequently fooled. Most of the time they think they have a runner and are wrong but most big priced firsters, especially from reasonably high profile connections, are surprises.

Anthony Dutrow is a sharp guy, and as was pointed out, the Phili pools aren't very big, so it's pretty unlikely they were at all excited by this horse's chances, at least in this race.


Good deal...thanks for the insight.


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