Vegas Derby Futures Choices?
 

Leaving for Vagas tomorrow. Any sugestions for a horse that I can get in the 100=300/1 area. Im gonna put $20 on a couple. Caves Valley is one Im considering right now. If I can get 20/1 or better on Pyro Im considering putting $100 on him. I understand just making the field is a big task but some of these horses flying under the radar a a lot bett shot at these odds othe the all other pool.

Hwww.horsePlayerDaily.com has the latest odds at Wynn (you may want to compare them to the LV hilton). Not sure if Caesers or Ballys even have them available. The only other Casino that may have them is Imperial Palace.

If you're looking for something over 100-1, I would suggest one of these. Hard to get good value in Feb.

Crown of Thorns 100-1
MAke the Point 150-1
Reflect Times 125-1
Riley Tucker 125-1

Ding! Ding! Ding!

Thorns and or Reflect will be affected by success tomorrow of course... But Make the Point is well under the radar screen and ready to pop in stakes company (FOY) next out..

I went back to look to make sure - it was Feb 13th of last year when I posted that there were only 7 horses who had any chance at winning the Derby.

They being:
Any Given Saturday
Hard Spun
Nobiz Like Shobiz
Street Sense
Ravel
Adore the Gold
Great Hunter


With today Feb 1st of 2008 - I can honestly say that I think there are probably over a hundred horses - maybe as many as 150 or 175 horses - who right now couldn't be ruled out as possible Derby winners.

If I had to assign someone the most likely Derby winner - it would be Pyro - who just so happens to be the future book favorite last I looked - and just so happens to be a nose away from being winless in his career.

You REALLY get the feeling that there is a very good lightly raced dirt horse out in California....but with those surfaces there, you can't project with any kind of exactitude who it might be.

It's pretty interesting to think how all but a small handfull of horses at about this time last year were impossible prospects for the Derby - and this year - just about anything with four hooves, a tail, and a pulse can't totally be ruled out.

I'm kinda hoping that about Indian Sun.

Public Image seems like a cinch to move up on dirt too.

D/S,

Hadn't thought about it until reading this, but you're right... I cannot recall a year in recent memory where there was NO feel at all for strong, serious Derby prospects other than the most tacit, decent juvy runners. Like you, I had great vibes for Hard Spun and Street Sense as KD hopes last year at this time, and was won over by A. G. Saturday, Dominican and Tiago as the Spring wore on.

I'm trying to formulate an early Top 10, but it hasn't been easy... If pressed for 5 right now..?

War Pass
Denis of Cork
Bordeaux Bandit
Make the Point
Into Mischief

Can only assume that the one root cause behind the confusion, or lack of clarity, is the synthetic surface issue.. especially West Coast-wise. The jump up/jump back performances as racing moved through DMR-HOL-SA since last July has made it impossible to know who is a talent and who isn't.

Steve look into the replays of col john when you get a chance improving with every race a real fighter down the lane

thanks for the info. Im on my way,

I could come up with one - but I would have no confidence at all in it - and would probably feel very embarressed if I had to look at it again in May.

And for that reason alone, I won't do one yet.

If I wanted to put one together right now, my strategy would be to use the dominant runners from the BC Juvie 1st and 2nd. I'd give a slight edge to Pyro because I see him as the better projection of the two, and it's obvious that a one-dimensional speed horse like War Pass will have to be so overwhelmingly superior to win an almost always fast paced 10 furlong race, where he will be very doubtful to get a free pass on the lead.

Beyond the top two, I'd focus in on horses who best fit the profile of a Derby winner to fill out the list.

They have the past performances of the past 15 Kentucky Derby winners up on DRF's website under the Derby section - 12 of the last 15 ran a Beyer of 94 or greater between Sep 11th of there 2yo season and Jan 13th at age 3. Ten of the 15 did it in a two and a half month span between Sep 19th and Dec 18 of there 2yo seasons.

The 3 out of the 15 who failed to do so were Grindstone, Charismatic, and War Emblem. Two of those were VERY aggressively trained Lukas horses, who's careers were both finished by the end of the triple crown series. The other one, War Emblem, wasn't even going to run in the Kentucky Derby until Baffert stepped into to buy the horse privately right before the Derby.

Basically, I'd want to fill slots 3-through-6 out with what I believe are the four best horses that fit the profile above.

As for slots 7-through-10, I'd look for lightly raced projection type horses, preferably something out of So. Cal. who would have a pedigree much more slanted to dirt racing than turf racing.

A horse like Court Vision does have the kind of plodding Imawildandcrazyguy and Steppenwolfer-esque running style that most often is associated with longshots who outrun their odds in the Derby. He also does have a very nice pedigree, and good 2yo route foundation under him....

However....would anyone really to take a horse who's 2yo figures are inferior to Giacomo's? Especially such a high profile horse.

Now, if we had to do a top 10 list on who was most likely to run a plodding 4th in the Derby....Court Vision would loom large.

I have been saying it for a few months now amongst my racing friends, but this year's crop is lacking that initial feeling of star power. But if you think about past years, did any of them have it too? I'd say yes, Street Sense was a buzz horse. Prior to that, Barbaro did gain a lot of attention. But this year, not one horse seems to carry a lot of punch.

I like the format proposed by DrugS on a top ten list. Very interesting.

I took Coal Play at 175-1 three weeks ago. If he wins today, that should be cut in half... which will make me happy since I've got it locked in.

Roman Emperor ran game yesterday in the Whirlaway.
The winner Barrier Reef, shall be a good contendor as well.

The Whirlaway might have been the strongest 3-year-old group this weekend, but that's not saying much. Roman Emperor and Barrier Reef did run well, and given the chaotic nature of this year's crop they could potentially fit nicely. I'll need another start to prove it though.

Alaazo
 

I got him at 75-1 this morning before today's romp!......Fingers crossed