finding the golden goose for Kentucky Derby exotics
 

This analysis of the prep patterns for past Kentucky Derby winners (http://www.jessicachapel.com/railbir...the_derby.html) got me thinking about what patterns, if any, exist for those high-odds in-the-money finishers who can boost the exotic payouts.

For example, one of the conclusions drawn by the Railbird blogger is that KD winners don't have significant regressions before the Derby. This doesn't seem to hold true for high-odds in-the-money finishers.

What comes to mind is Bluegrass Cat's prep for the 2006 Derby, the Blue Grass Stakes, where he finished 4th, well behind the winner, an apparent significant regression (and I realize that maybe this isn't the best example because it was an odd race, with Sinister Minister's freakish performance, but you get the idea). Bluegrass Cat then finished second to Barbaro in the Derby, with an exacta payout of $587. (And let me give Steve his props because, just prior to the Derby on ATR, Steve did report how good BC looked).

What do you look for when trying to identify a Derby dark horse to key in the exotics, who you don't expect to win, but who'll return a big payoff if he finishes in the money?

I think there is usually a very good price to be found if you can pinpoint a horse who simply cannot run fast enough over 10 furlongs to win, but has the look of a horse who no doubt will actually still be running at the end of 10 furlongs. It's worked the last two years to kick the superfecta into places it wouldn't have gone otherwise, with Jazil and Imawildandcrazyguy. I didn't want anything to do with Crazyguy, but Jazil was one I liked going into that race for the exact kinds of spot he ended up in. There always seem to be a few that look like they'll be plodding along passing tired milers at the end, and they always seem to be a good price on the board.

Every year, after the derby, I always wonder why I didn't just wheel the whole field with whichever horse I thought would win. The year that Barbaro won, I think I part wheeled Barbaro with 10 other horses and still missed BG Cat.

I know how you feel. I went to that Derby and even liked BG Cat earlier in the year and even (as I wrote above) heard BG Cat toted on ATR for how good he looked -- then I also part-wheeled with Barbaro on top and missed BG Cat for place. One of those "DOH" moments. Oh well, at least I've still got my keepsake $2 winning ticket for Barabaro.