handicapping 101 PART 3 BAD DROPS IN CLASS
 

well after blowing good day at the windows late in the card..i was wondering about this subject..the 1 in race 6 at gs sat a 450,000 buy..had run one time before..and was now in 40k claimer..it was t pleach /j.v had a good post..

now i didint walk i ran away from this horse.. but in the back of my mind im thinking boy am i gonna feel stupid if he smokes me...so i dont bet him at all...funny in the same race the 10 was a huge long shot..and mike w. from the drf comments ..writes a small breakdown of each horses ped and chances.. you know "like others"..or "under exotic player" his final comment was "no"..so i had to include em..i liked the 5.6/2 and used the 10 in the super...so anyway coa fs me and cant get the five in the top 4 late and my ext box was 6/10/5.. the six gave it up at the wire..tough beat.. so when do you drop the dropper? or big money purchases that dont run well and make death drops..confidence builder or bad horse?

i would say in the long run if you drop em all you will be better off as they are usually overbet anyway

One change you see nowadays that you rarely saw 10-15 years ago is the class dropper off a win. These were always thought to be big negatives because, if a horse won for 15K, why risk losing him below fair market value? Now we see egomaniac owners like Frank Calabrese who will drop off a win, and win again........they don't care if they lose the horse for less than what its worth because getting the win and stroking the ego is more important.

As for the yearling prices which have been in the DRF for a few years now, I think these horses are overwhelmingly overbet.

We have a trainer here in Northern California who does the "claim and drop" a lot. Hell claim a horse for $12.5K and then race it in an $8K claimer - and the horse will win. I'm sure he does this for his win %, he's regularly has a 30%+ win %. I actually look for horses that ran like cr*p before he got them because I know that he's going to "work his magic", drop them and they'll win at good odds.

I think it helps if you know the usual reasons why the trainer in question drops horses, if he's the type that usually drops to dump, stay away. If the trainer does it so he can get the win, take a chance.

Can u please keep these coming hooves?
They have made for some very good
reading.

One important angle you have to keep in mind is the "business" angle of a drop. To play this, you have to have a grasp of the condition book and a reasonable knowledge of the owners and trainers.

As a claiming owner, I played games with the placement of my horses to try to eke out a profit or to make horses eligible for certain races, i.e., starter allowance, starter handicaps, etc.

Other times I dropped a horse knowing it was going off form and I had a chance to lose the horse if I didn't drop it too far and scare the hell out of everyone.

I have a borderline obsession with Maiden Claiming races... I am really not sure why, as I am by no means a pedigree guru or particularly confident with MSW's.

I pass on playing class droppers more often than not, but when I find the ones I really like they are by far my favorite plays.

I almost never play fav with a big trainers or big $$ purchase. Even when right, the payouts are usually low. I agree with the above that they are often bad favorites and lend higher than deserved odds to other runners.

Instead I look for fair (or juicy) odds on trainers with high ROI in MCL in general or high ROI on the MSW/MCL move. I am always looking for good MSW tote action and excuses with either troubled trips, washed off turf races, unappreciated sloppy starts, failed turf experiments, etc.

Just my two cents. I am by no means a great (or probably even very good) capper. But I would probably be best served to just play these runners as it is where I undoubtedly have my best success.

Curious as to other folks take on the topic.

The big droppers, especially ones bought for big money and then showing up in claiming races I avoid period. Sometimes they beat me but usually they fulfill their underperforming stature.

As for horses that have run and dropping you really need to look at the owners and trainers as some have said. I especially like when there's a positive trainer change on someone who had form and lost it. You also have to look at injuries where a horse has been really good, had time off, and switched to a better trainer. Those I pounce on (not that I always win) because I feel a trainer can get the horse back.

Spyder

one angle that i found is good to me. the winner of mclm or msw trys the stake then with no real placing..be it illusions of grandure by connections or trainer .. then drops back to where he won......

good stuff, love the discussion....

Agree with that. I do avoid those that get dueled into submission in the Stakes however...

Thread from selections regarding a class dropper today. Not a big dollar purchase. But still on topic.

http://www.derbytrail.com/forums/showthread.php?t=19525

Oaklawn Race #1 the six horse
 

Great example where big dropper gets claimed twice and each time goes in for lower 14K to 10K and in for 7.5K today as 3/2 fav. Hate him here.

Let's see what happens.

Spyder

Results
 

I think that it is more of a trainer play. Just have to know which trainers are dangerous when there horses make huge drops. Hooves mentioned Pletcher, he just doesn't seem like the guy that would drop a horse to steal a race.
I personally never bet a horse that runs for a lower tag then claimed next time out, just too fishy for me. Also I am weary when a horse wins and then drops in the next race. As far as purchase price goes, I notice it but do not take it into account to much. I know of a horse that cost 16 million and you would think for that much money he would be able run a little, right? ;)

I read somewhere recently that when big outfits like Pletcher drop a horse significantly they're looking to get rid of the horse rather than get a win. . .

Hockey, ive heard the same about Pletcher as well. I guess when a drop down happens if it doesn't "make sense" then that worries me. A horse that was somewhat competitive at a higher level and drops fine but a winner then to the same level or lower worries me. Also, agree with the big purchase horses going into claimer. Ive just seen too many horses that are maidens over and over. It would just scare me to death to drop a horse into a clm race off a few races. I mean damn wouldnt you try everything you could think of b4 doing that??? Sprint, grass, grass sprint, route. I would just hate to loose out have someone claim the horse and the horse goes on to do something great. I agree Hooves, great topics and i appreciate all of the imput from all on the board.