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-   -   Santa Anita Today - Spot plays (http://www.derbytrail.com/forums/showthread.php?t=19287)

Scav 01-10-2008 12:50 PM

Santa Anita Today - Spot plays
 
While I was looking at the PP's for the Showvivor, I noticed some horses that could outrun their odds.

Race 3 - #2 Hydrodynamic - 15/1 ML

While it concerns me that they entered this horse into 80k claimers in his first start, 99 times out of a 100 that is a pretty safe spot. The horse made a decent middle move to hand a little and was only 4 lengths from a contendious winner photo. The horse is bred for the lawn, and Bell wins close to 10% more with 2nd time starters then firsters (12% first, 22% 2nd). I like that the Frenchman stayed aboard, that first could have just to get his ears wet.

Race 6 - #1 Missing Treasure - 15/1 ML

Pretty hard to pass out Nakatini at 15/1 on the lawn in California. I think this horse will like the stretch out and should be around down the lane. With all the speed outside, it could mean that they are 4w into the turn and Nak gets the rail....

letswastemoney 01-10-2008 01:28 PM

7th race is only 6 horses now :)

Rootdog1 01-10-2008 01:32 PM

here are some affordable plays...somebodys gotta win...

1)4,5,8
2)5
3)2,3,4,6
$12

5)1,6,10,11
6)4,7,8 (love this race)
7)1,3
8)13
$24

Scav 01-10-2008 02:10 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by letswastemoney
7th race is only 6 horses now :)

I am actually extremely concerned about the dirt surface, you just don't know how it is going to act right now. I tried not to pick a dirt race but I ended up going with the 2nd race

Rootdog1 01-10-2008 02:22 PM

who did ya pick? By the way, I do like Hydro @ 15-1

PeteMugg 01-10-2008 02:26 PM

Out of Showvivor ... picked the only loser in a four horse race. But I'm liking Victory Pete in the third today. He's faced some tough ones and was wide twice his last out. Hope he takes to the turf.

tiggerv 01-10-2008 02:44 PM

Early Pick 4
1: 8,9,10
2: 1,5
3: 1,2,3,6,7
4: 7

$30

Rootdog1 01-10-2008 02:48 PM

I wish I had added the #10 in the first...good luck tigger

$1 Tri box 4,5,8,10 = $24

tiggerv 01-10-2008 03:08 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Rootdog1
I wish I had added the #10 in the first...good luck tigger

$1 Tri box 4,5,8,10 = $24

Damn, wish you had him too. Thought the 4 was going to get him.

tiggerv 01-10-2008 03:40 PM

Bah...assumed Solis would ride the 8 just bad enough to lose.

On to the late Pick 4.

Scav 01-10-2008 03:59 PM

I would advise anyone that has some cash to drop in on this 2 horse in the 3rd race at Santa Anita. I would probably play it this way....

100 bankroll

20WP 2
1 tri 2,6 / 1,2,3,4,6,10 / 1,2,3,4,6,10
5 exa 2,6 / 2,6,10

tiggerv 01-10-2008 04:03 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Scav
I would advise anyone that has some cash to drop in on this 2 horse in the 3rd race at Santa Anita. I would probably play it this way....

100 bankroll

20WP 2
1 tri 2,6 / 1,2,3,4,6,10 / 1,2,3,4,6,10
5 exa 2,6 / 2,6,10


I played small win bets on the 2 and 3. Good Luck

Scav 01-10-2008 04:10 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Scav
I would advise anyone that has some cash to drop in on this 2 horse in the 3rd race at Santa Anita. I would probably play it this way....

100 bankroll

20WP 2
1 tri 2,6 / 1,2,3,4,6,10 / 1,2,3,4,6,10
5 exa 2,6 / 2,6,10

Well, the two ran like a rat but at least the tri hit, should pay decent.....

EDIT: LOL, I can't even get a touted ticket to the window without issues (inquiry right now)

tiggerv 01-10-2008 04:13 PM

Was that bump after the wire?

Scav 01-10-2008 04:14 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by tiggerv
Was that bump after the wire?

I dont know, but I am hoping that you get up here, because you actually played it. Pretty interesting

tiggerv 01-10-2008 04:19 PM

Watching online so its hard to tell. It looks like it happened after the wire so probably a good call. Talamo needed the win more than I did.

PSH 01-10-2008 04:21 PM

After the wire
 
Thankfully as i had the 6 on top. Glad to see you hit the tri Scavs. Nothing seems easy....

PSH

Rootdog1 01-10-2008 04:36 PM

race #4

$1 Tri box 7/9/11/10

13-1 on the #9 is a steal

tiggerv 01-10-2008 04:41 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Rootdog1
race #4

$1 Tri box 7/9/11/10

13-1 on the #9 is a steal


Good luck. I am passing this race. Have to admit I hope the 7 doesn't get there. My dislike for Solis might cost me 755 bucks.

Rootdog1 01-10-2008 04:50 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Rootdog1
race #4

$1 Tri box 7/9/11/10

13-1 on the #9 is a steal

had to get greedy...should of gone for the exacta which paid $81 for $1


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