12/26: Aqueduct ($161k C/O)
 

Racing resumes in NY Wednesday with a bonus P6 pool of $161k+ and extra time to evaluate the sextet. Weather as follows:

Tomorrow: Partly cloudy early followed by mostly cloudy skies and a few showers later in the day. High 44F. Winds NE at 5 to 10 mph. Chance of rain 30%.

Bigger concern is how track may be playing after 11 day break with surface listed as muddy for Xmas Eve a.m. drills. Track was closed for training Sunday and Tuesday, but in the past week, only 5 of 31 runners recorded half mile drills under :48.0, and but 2 of 35 made 5f in less than 1:00.0, one being Oprah Winney. Am leaning towards expecting a fair inner track Wednesday and will not be surprised if course plays 'slow'...


AQUEDUCT

POST SCRATCHES...

4th: MSW, F&M-3+, 6f (P6, P3, Super)

Best Value: #5 SCR (SUB: #8 Lookie Cookie 6-1 6th)
Most Likely: #1 Wild Garden 5-2: 2nd outing for Perkins' New Farm homebred.. WON
Next Best: #3 Hatta Diamond 4-1: KMc firster looks well-prepped.. 5th
Exotics Add: #2 More Than Thunder 7-2: Tom A. debutter bulleted 11/30.. 3rd


5th: NYB-ALW/N1X, F&M-3+, 1m (P3, G/S)

Best Value: #5 Keuka Maid 6-1: Patient Morrison has brought grey a long way.. 3rd
Most Likely: #7 Alyssa the Dancer 2-1: Pricey Wheelaway miss diplomaed on stretchout..scored 2nd
Next Best: #1 Point Me to It 9-2: Competitive last pair; Returns to 2 turner.. 5th
Exotics Add: #2 Carrs and Stripes 15-1: Has banked $93k clunking up.. 6th


6th: CLM/N2L, F&M-3+, 6f (P4, DD)

Best Value: #2 Raisin Silver 10-1: Consistantly better 2nd off break.. 7th
Most Likely: #3 Elirose 2-1: Zayat dropper returns to NY; Imposing if right.. 3rd
Next Best: #1e Contessa entry 3-1: Note odd jock deployment this pair.. 9th/12th
Exotics Add: #10 Hunsley Bunsley 5-1: Interesting 2nd off break.. WON


7th: NYB-ALW/N1X, 2yo-F, 6f (P3)

Best Value: #10 Palmetto Bluffs 8-1: Bounceback to maidenbreaker threatens this.. 7th
Most Likely: #9 Jet Setting 5-2: Appears too obvious; Many singling here.. 2nd
Next Best: #4 Jovanna 7-2: Lost all chance at break last; Player here.. 3rd
Exotics Add: #1 (POE) La Ransom 4-1: Heavier hand in A. Dutrow entry; Board regular.. 4th


8th: OC/N3X, F&M-3+, 6f (DD)

Best Value: #1 Beau Dare 9-2: Honest Military 4yo can press or go.. WON
Most Likely: #2 You Asked 2-1: Goldberg has faced good ones; Gets Ramon.. 2nd
Next Best: #7 Circuit Breaker 3-1: Rose in to score for S. Klesaris.. 3rd


9th: NYB-MDN CLM, 3+, 1m (Super)

Best Value: #7 Sir Cryptonite 12-1: Return to BEL grass try 2 back aces this..
Most Likely: #4 Turnupthevolume 7-2: The proverbial frog with least worts..
Next Best: #1 Alberti 6-1: Duggan best 2nd off layoffs.. 2nd
Exotics Add: #5 Unbreelievable 10-1: Got bet in debut; had trouble.. WON


P6 Base Play:

4: 1
5: 5-7
6: 2-3
7: 4-9
8: 1-2-7
9: 4-5

1x2x2x2x3x2 = 48 x $2 = $96


<$50 P4 Play:

6: 2-3
7: 1-4-9-10
8: 1-2-7
9: 4-5

2x4x3x2 = $48


Good luck!
Steve

I'm not sure if the track will be " slow " but I'm sure most of the contestants will be.

By the way, there is a very " right " horse in the 9th that you completely left out.

Intriguing... I'll delve again later tonight.. Headed to g/f's friends for evening.

shmoopie alert..bing bing...

It could have been worse.....he could have said boyfriend. I think that might have been worse.

I'm actually curious at what point you stop picking bad horses that debut on turf that are now entered in dirt races. How much more evidence do you need that these are horrendous bets?

An also eligible or part of the field?

Yes.

Thanks for the Christmas present...

Let me further my turf/dirt discussion.....forget about horses running on grass because they're hopless on the dirt for a second. CJ was explaining the other day about the compression in grass numbers ( which now occurs on Polytrack as well ). The best horses never run as fast as the best dirt horses ( in terms of numbers ) and the worst horses are consistently faster than the worst dirt horses. You will often see a hopeless dirt horse ( like Sir Cryptonite...who is also fooling you in the finale ) run as poorly on turf as dirt yet run a much higher number. This number will virtually never translate to dirt....it is just a function of number compression. For this reason, even if a horse like Turnupthevolume were to reproduce his turf effort on the dirt he will run much closer to 35 than the 57 he ran in his debut. So, you really have to ask yourself if you think he is a substantially better horse on the dirt than on the grass. Now....how can that realistically be the case?

Think of post #11 as my Holiday gift.

i was going to give the artax a shot...and yes that would have been WORSE!!

Thanks.

Actually Graded Turnupthevolume as a "C" based on your Turf Debut philosophy... Has not burned me YET.

Coa intrigued a bit.. He will probably win for fun...

The #5 Unbreelievable may show more in the last tomorrow.....Gramme Hall is far from worst route Daddy here at this distance.

SCRATCHES

1

1 What a Mistake Early
2 Undeniable Queen Early
5 Abby Fenn Early


2

2B Sable Island Early
3 (poe) Press Only Early
7 Brahminical Early
8 Windication Early


3

1A Gold West Early
7 Cannon Station Early


4

5 Straight n' Narrow Early


5

1A Alchera Early
10 So Smashley Early
11 La Mure Early


6

11 Crispy Cat Early
13 Lunar Chip Early
14 Clear Heels Early
15 Miz Linzer Early


7

3 Play N Hooky Early


9

8 Tee With the Tiger Early
11 Tricky Tuck Early
13 Legal Revenge Early

Thanks Steve!!:)

Put in 7-9 exacta box in the 5th.......money for Friday!!!!!!!!!!

You are the man.