Fleet Valid in for a tag?
 

Wednesday @ Aqueduct, race 3 for $50k. What's the story with that?

'Pork Chop' is a tough horse to keep sound.

Just started looking at Wed. I am also a bit suprised to see Becky's Flute in for $25K Tag in 1st. Last race was probably not an ideal distance and soft turf probably didn't help matters.

Drop just seems a bit much considering steady diet of State Bred Stakes over last year and good success over inner track.

That's the first horse I noticed too - very strange, if sound she ought to be at least competitive in N2X over the winter, and if nothing else has earned some black type and over 100k in earnings - not sure of her ped but considering some of the NY breds going through the sales lately, you'd think one would see some value as a broodmare prospect

She's not eligible for restricted NW2X races.....and not competitive in open races. This is where she belongs IMO.

I assume Dutrow will be the fav. So what's a fair ML on Becky?

Not sure how I feel about her, but she has been over her head and the race appears to have some pace. Works don't raise any big concerns as far as I can see.

Declining Beyers are a bit tough, but last was on a soft turf and if you skip that, it's not so bad.. Maybe just a good spot to drop with bad showing in last.

Mainly perplexed on why they go for $25K tag after insisting on staked for last 12 months. See she was in for $40K when Jerkins had her last.

She can win and I agree about the pace looking favorable for her. One of the Anthony Dutrow horses ( they both look exactly the same don't they? ) has to scratch as the same rider is listed.

Like you said, the Dutrow entry, even if only one runs, will be favored. I don't like Bedtime Story but am concerned about the Anthony Dutrows, but they're both dropping hard off Delaware form. On the other hand....his horses seem to be running out of their skin lately in NY.

I think there's something else you're missing about the race....it's restricted to 3YOs. In a month the races at this level rate to be tougher.

Claiming from The Chief is just never a good idea. I can't tell you how many I've been tempted on -- and thankfully been talked out of it -- and how all of them just never came back. The few that came back did so about a zillion classes below, LOL. The Chief has certain advantages that other trainers just do not have.

I don't know anything about her pedigree, but she's not by a commercial stallion and her black type (that shows) -- although it's a win -- is state/restricted stakes. Although there might be some reasons, she's also going in the wrong direction, and that's while she's been in The Chief's barn, so for me, that's hands off.

Unless there is really solid pedigree there, she's not worth anything as a broodmare as that $5k to $20k marketplace is really dead.

Eric

One thing I always point out to my readers is that a decent racemare need not have a stellar sire to produce well; she's demonstrated on the track that she has good running genes. So many examples - Jameela, Likely Exchange, Lady Shirl - just to name a few. If the racetrack success is lacking, then you need to worry about her sire's prowess. As it is, this gal's family is more blue-collar than gilt-edged, although her dam is a half to a G1-placed SW in Britain and a SP $1 million-earner in Japan. More breed-to-race than breed-to-sell.

That is a good point and looking closer at conditions is something I need to work on...

Think that actually just reinforces how I feel here. Either Jerkins or Dutrow(s) may think they have a bit of a soft spot to run away with one.

Problem for me is, going against Dutrow class droppers. (or Dutrow in general) at AQU has been a bad idea lately.

Guess I will see who makes the race and what the tote looks like. If Becky is a price I may dabble. Otherwise will be curious how this goes. On to race 2...

It looks like he's through his conditions, so there are not many options. Though he's run 3 BSF's over 100, each was followed by a heavy regression, meaning he doesn't stand hard racing. He's run with good horses but when he runs with very good ones, he gets beaten. He may be Mid-Atlantic stakes quality but he's not NY stakes quality. I'm guessing that if Trombetta and the owners felt he was worth it, they'd try him in some of the MD stakes. The fact that they are willing to lose him says he may have a gaping hole. Of course he may still win for fun and be claimed and have a good winter. He's bred for mud, has speed and could be an inner tube monster. One man's floor is another man's ceiling.

Thought that might be the story. Very nice horse, but the gaps in the resume are hard to ignore. Figured he would fit well in the Fall Highweight, though.

Fleet Valid has an enormous " claim me " sign around his neck. He may win but I wouldn't touch him.

He's also virtually guaranteed to be claimed.

Agree on both points... and I'd lay 4/5 a Dutrow drops the slip. Winning Move is the 5/2 second choice.

Jacobsen too. If A Dutrow knows a thing or two about him from the MD circuit, then Rick D may be less likely to claim.

Not exactly...

Breed to race is very live, and breed to sell -- if that's your business -- OK, there's a market there. But I'll tell you, I buy/claim fillies all the time and with the residual value in that marketplace, it's not easy to sell those mares these days. I've had several -- good pedigrees, but not great of course (or else they wouldn't be cheap, LOL) -- and they are tough to move. That's part of my business, and there is weakness in that segment of the marketplace. We all know that marketplace has nothing to do with the mega-numbers we are seeing.

Of course each mare is a case specific basis. We all know that. But when I have a $10k to $25k mare to sell, even with pedigreee, sometimes it's hard to give 'em away. I think the smaller, commercial breeders, the solo and family operations, etc. -- in today's day and age of not being in the top echelon -- they look at carrying costs, and everything moving forward, and I don't think the economics dictate the marketplace being solid. Don't get me wrong, you can sell those mares, but it certainly isn't a given.

Eric

Eric
If you had been at Keeneland for books 6 and 7 you would have seen a lot of strength in the lower end of mares. The keys are being relatively young, having a blacktype in the 1st dam or good blacktype in the second. There is a huge interest in the secondary markets like PA, NM and some emerging foreign markets. It is not like these mares are being bought for 200% of value, but the ones who qualify are getting the right money.
One of the problems at that level is stud fees still being too high in KY. The problem in the regional markets is the lack of quality stallions period, regardless of price. I know people laugh at a horse like Noble Causeway but at $5000 he is actually not a bad play. At least his owner is going to support him with better quality mares than a typical $5000 stallion will get.

I agree Chuck. What was the average for 6 and 7? And, perhaps more importantly, what was the median? I have always looked at the cost of bring a lower priced mare to the sale. From getting her to KY, farm (and I get good deals as many do), to sales prep, pre-sale fees, and so on, it sometimes is cost prohibitive if you sell a mare for $15k.

I was in action during the sale and I think a lot of those mares are not the $10k and $20k mares. I think they are higher priced and higher quality than that. There will always be buyers for them in the sales. But if I have a $10k or $20k mare to sell, it's not anywhere near as feasible to bring that mare to the sale.

But, for the right players, yeah, you are right, it's there. I just think for someone like me, when I have that mare to sell (especially in the off-season), it can be like ice in the winter. And, the sale is the sale, the rest of the marketplace is year 'round. I find the $30k and up market very strong. These are the mares that can sell yearlings in later books for strong money. Regardless, like Bob Fox has always said -- this is a business of self-expression.

Eric