KEE (Fri.): Darley Alcibiades (Gr. I)
 

I thought Dreaming of Liz looked pretty strong in her last two starts at Arlington. Unfortunately for her, the draw means that she has absolutely NO chance in here. I assume that her connections will just scratch her when they realize they drew the dreaded # 2.


9th (5:15)
Darley Alcibiades S. (G1)

1 1/16 Miles (All Weather Track) | Fillies | 2 Year Olds Stakes | Purse: $500,000

Post # Horse Jockey Weight Claim Price Equip. Med.
1 Initiation Gomez G K 118 L
2 Dreaming of Liz Baird E T 118 L
3 Morakami Castellano J J 118 L
4 Irish Smoke Leparoux J R 118 L
5 Minewander Melancon L 118 L
6 French Kiss Johnson J M 118 L
7 Startswampindowski Bridgmohan S X 118 L
8 Bee's Wax Douglas R R 118 L
9 Grace Anatomy Smith M E 118 L
10 Country Star Bejarano R 118 L
11 Rasierra Theriot H J II 118 LA
12 A to the Croft Desormeaux K J 118 L
13 Sunday Holiday Albarado R J 118 LA

she might get out easy if the jockeys play the early fractions slow

wtf?

See the thread for "The Key to Betting Polly Track"

http://www.kentucky.com/302/story/190185.html

I am not sure which way I am going yet, but I think it makes sense to take a stand against Irish Smoke here. She looked better than these at Saratoga, but if she is anywhere close to her 2/1 ml, I think you have to try to beat a horse with her pedigree trying two-turns and 8.5f for the first time. Toss in the fact that she is trying poly for the first time, and I think you almost have to look elsewhere.
I'm just not sure where yet.
Past Performances: http://www.brisnet.com/bris_link/pdfs/darley_89710.pdf

I want to see Catalano win another Juvenile Fillies, so I'm obviously rooting for Dreaming of Liz in here, even after factoring in the inevitable failure that's going to ensue once she breaks from Hell Lane aka 2.

i think she'll fail not cause of the dreaded 2 hole, but because her runstyle doesn't suit keeneland routes. to win this she'll have to be much better than the rest. maybe she is but i'm leaning against.
not sure who i'll play yet but Irish Smoke sure was a visually impressive winner at Saratoga.

I think Minewander is a bit interesting as a longshot (20/1 ml). Even though her lone victory came in a 21k MSW at Ellis, she seems to be improving, and certainly made up some ground in her last at Arlington.
Keeneland figures to suit her style more than Arlington did, and unlike some in here, she may benefit from the increase in distance. She has also been training nicely since her show in the Lassie.
With quite a few question marks surounding the favorites, I think she might have an outside shot. I certainly think she could be a factor in the exotics.

and Jim she has been training very well over the poly, biancone says 2 turns and distance will be no issue for her and she actually perfers the ploy more than the dirt

thanks for the info, I thought she ran like she has a good future. she showed talent, acceleration, ability to rate, etc.

and no adverse reactions to, oh...say, snake venom? that's a plus.

Anyone know why Alberado and not ET has the ride?

Not sure, was wondering the same thing earlier today.

50-1 on Minewander at the moment seems like an exotics blowup waiting to happen.

I ended up on Grace Anatomy.

Or not.

Guess it really didn't matter

what a way to break your maiden

SEE! I told you Irish Smoke and Dreaming of Liz were vulnerable!!
(We'll forget about the fact that I backed Minewander).

This was the second year that the Alcibiades was run over Keeneland's polytrack - and the second straight year a maiden won the race.

Last years winner of this race was 47/1 shot maiden Bel Air Beauty.

Can a maiden win this fine Grade 1 stake for a third time in a row? We'll sadly have to wait until next year before we know the answer to that question.

I don't like his tactics, but Bobby Frankel is an outstanding trainer and that horse was technically a maiden...but not really.

Can someone tell Bejarano that the winner is a SHE and not a HE?