Belmont Sunday
 

Just two thoughts at this point:

Lawyer Ron has run poorly twice at 10 furlongs, and Curlin just might not be cranked up for his best. I'm going to play Sun King.

I'm a Mach Ride fan, so I'll play him too in the hopes that blinkers are the reason for the improved efforts.

Lawyer Ron ran poorly at 10 furlongs NOT IN Pletchers care. I don't really consider that BC run last year to be in his care, he finally had time to work with him. He could be a Saratoga monster but I doubt it.

Hey, I like Lawyer Ron. Always have. But I'm trying to find value here. If you hold a gun to my head and say "pick the winner", I'd take Lawyer Ron. But not at short odds at this distance.

You aren't alone. That's why he might be 10-1.

I doubt it. Wasn't he 13-1 when 2nd to LR at Saratoga?

This is exactly how I feel. He remains the most likely winner, but I think he will always be a better horse at 8.5f - 9f than he will ever be at 10f.
He doesn't have anything close to a 10f pedigree, and - as you mentioned earlier - his two past performances at 10f have been MUCH worse than his shorter races.
I think he is vulnerable, but I am not sure any of these are going to be able to take advantage of that. Sun King is (as always) an unlikely winner, but if he is in the 12/1 range, you could certainly do a lot worse.