Derby Trail Forums - 9/23: Belmont ($223k C/O)

Interesting set of results Saturday as heavy favorites faired modestly or worse in three of the afternoon's biggest races. 'Play against' of Octave worked well in Philadelphia's Cotillion with Bear Now ($18.80) toppling the 3-10 Pletcher public choice, but we were hoping to keep her further down the pecking order for best exotic result. Fact was that Octave, while nice and consistant, had simply not run as fast in her career as several of her opponents, has been advancing only in the tiniest of increments, and figured to be beaten. You had to at least try to beat her, and our key of the heroine returned the $150.60 trifecta.

At Bozier City, Grasshopper ran OK with the pace, never saw Going Ballistic 3-4 paths away in deep stretch, and may be a horse that prefers to be in a fight. His back to back big efforts in the Travers and comebacker may have been a factor as well, and like Bear Now, winner Going Ballistic ($19.80) had upside into this 28th Super Derby. Notable in his performance lines were a pair of turf starts at Lone Star before a career best try in the Prairie Meadows Derby: an identical path taken by clever conditioner Donnie Von Hemel into this rich affair. "ATR" Friday regular Brian Pochman (DRF) delivered the complete exotics bonanza with the winner on top (EX $35.60; TRI $133.60; SUPER $560.00).

At Belmont, Any Given Saturday looked somewhat ordinary annexing the Brooklyn, at least when held up to his Haskell and Dwyer romps. That's been true of most Pletcher runners since early August, and "AGS" was returning to a one turn test from the big performance at Oceanport. The WinStar Distorted Humor colt needed to work to get to and pass Pat Kelly's very game Tasteyville, and while it may be a 'perfect' tune-up for the Breeders' Cup Classic in the opinion of Team Todd, it didn't look too great visually.

Finally Saturday, the Mass Cap returned, and so did Brass Hat. In the day's best story, the utterly indominable gelding returned to the winner's circle in the rebooted Suffolk standard, a result that gets back 25% of the earnings stolen from Willie Martinez, Fred and Buff Bradley in the desert last year before his most recent career-threatening setback.

Returning to Elmont, despite available singles of Jazzy and Any Given Saturday in yesterday's co-features, the P6 remained unhit a 2nd day at Belmont with 3 $10.00+ winners and $45.00 Dontess making the play impossible. NY bred babies take the stage today in the Bongard and Gimma, and with the boy's version going as R3, one obvious single (Tagg's Big Truck) is unavailable. Races 3-10 examined below..

BELMONT PARK (3rd-10th)

3rd: 30th Bongard, NYB-2yo, 7f (P3)

1. #5 BIG TRUCK 3-5: Tagg may have something really nice here.. WON nice here..[/i]
2. #2 Dazzling Derek 6-1 3rd
3. #1 Spanky Fischbein 4-1 2nd

4th: ALW/N1X, 3+, 10f-IT (P3, Super)

1. #9 Blue Rider 5-1: Clement super effective with layoffs like this.. 4th
2. #6 Bold Hawk 5-2: Toner has been carefully picking spots.. WON
A. #2 Oedipus O'Neal 6-1 2nd
B. #4 Jansdream 15-1 5th

SUPER ADD: #5 Amwaal 12-1: Never know what KMc has or can do with this type of import.. 10th

5th: CLM/N2L, F&M-3+, 6f-T (P3, P6-$223,000 Carryover)

1. #4 Bunny Junction 5-1 7th
2. #1e Rice entry 3-1 4th
A. #10 Sneaky Girl 10-1 3rd
B. #8 Royal Spaulding 7-2 2nd

<$25 P3 Play:

3: 5
4: 2-4-6-9
5: 1-4-10

1x4x3 = 12 x $2 = $24

6th: NYB-ALW/N1X, F&M-3+, 6f (P3, GS, DD)

NOTE: Hate leaving #5 Pennylove (8-1) from insanely hot Schosberg out of plays.. Use in exotics if spreading, and note a big try by her here reflects positively for 15-1 Hollywood Terrace (#2) in today's nightcap.

1. #2 Precious Too 20-1: Crazy price on T2D mover.. 6th
2. #10 Turning Leaves 4-1: Levine formula horse; Optionable single in the '6'.. WON
A. #7 SCR (Subbing #5 Pennylove 2nd)
B. #6 Court and Spark 6-1 5th

7th: MDN CLM, 3+, 6f-T (P4)

1. #8 All Verses 5-1: All signs point here.. 2nd
2. #11 American Cruiser 5-2: Corny's stalker could lose ground.. 3rd
A. #3 Giveityourbestshot 4-1 WON
B. #2 Hot Table 6-1 4th

8th: The Fairway Flyer, F&M-3+, 11f-IT (P3)

1. #1 Barancella 2-1 WON
2. #5 Wingspan 3-1 4th
3. #2 Nunnery 6-1 3rd

9th: 15th Jos. Gimma, NYB-2yo F, 7f (DD)

1. #7 Expect the End 7-5 WON
2. #1 Meriweather Jessica 8-5 2nd
A. #2 Mine or Who's 10-1 5th
B. #4 Honky Tonk Trick 6-1 4th

10th: NYB-MSW, F&M-3+, 6f-IT (Super)

1. #2 Hollywood Terrace 15-1: Check Pennylove (6th); Scary from 'Moe'.. 5th
2. #3 Knownowthisistrue 3-1: Logical from Reinacher with Kent D.. 10th
A. #11 Mia 8-1 WON
B. #5 Let's Fly Away 8-1 6th

SUPER ADD: #7 My Into Wishin 5-1 9th

<$200 P6 Play:

5: 1-4-10
6: 10
7: 8-11
8: 1-(5)
9: 1-7
10: 2-3-5-11

3x1x2x2x2x4 = 96 x $2 = $192 (Exclude #5 in 8th for $96 play..)

<$50 P4 Play:

7: 3-8-11
8: 1
9: 1-7
10: 1-2-3-5-6-7-10-11

3x1x2x8 = $48 P4 paid $264.50

Good luck!
Steve