Historic Speed Figures?
 

I was just wondering if anybody has ever gone back through history and calculated speed figures. Beyer, sheets, thoro, anything? I would love to see some of the numbers the great horses through history have put up. It would also be fun to see if some big upset wasn't really an upset on paper (seabiscuit v. war admiral). I thought I remember hearing a few years ago that Secretariat ran a 135 Beyer in the Belmont, any thoughts?

Actually I read a quote from Beyer that had him at 139 in the Belmont. Amazing to think about.

Beyer told me that old time speed figure guys claim that Count Fleet ran the highest figures from those days. He said he did look up a couple of his races and they appeared monsterously fast.

On the Thoro site, there's a section "are race horses getting faster", it's a good read. They claim that the tracks today are actually deeper and that horses are getting faster. It's a good read, but I don't know how much stock I put in it.

Actually, Beyer has told people that Secretariat's Belmont turned up like a 153 Beyer speed figure or something crazy like that in their first few calculatings of it based on their formula - but then they adjusted it because they weren't going to give that much credit when they didn't have all of the proper variables at the time to better measure his performance....I don't know how they determined he ran about a 139 instead of a 153....that would be interesting to find out...must have thought that it was impossible...

I have also heard that there have been at least one or two performances that he thought was quantifiably better than THAT, believe it or not.....I know that he said that one of Dr. ***er's races would have scored out in the 150 Beyer Speed figure range......WOW!

Before Beyers became public, you had the old DRF speed ratings and variants going way back. To those who understand how figures are calculated, these are a bit elementary, but it is interesting to see who ran what. According to the methodology for calculating these, track record times = 100, and the variant is calculated by averaging the deviation of each of the day's races from that record. The obvious problem when comparing generations is that the record changed and the same raw time would produce a lower rating as time went by. Just fo the sake of discussion,I'll list some and refer to the raw time rating and the combined rating + variant ="figure"...

Man o' War twice ran ratings over 130, once in the 13 f Lawrence Realization where he won by 100 lengths.

Citation ran 127-06 in a 14 f race and had several races with a combined (rating plus variant) figure in the mid 110's.

Count Fleet only managed to break 100 rating twice and a combinde figure never went over 110.

Swaps regularly broke track records and 10 times went over 100 on the rating , and ran several figures in the 115 range with a top of 120.

Dr. ***er had numerous records with his best being a 132 figure (115-17) in a 9f race.

Secretariat was given a 113 for his Derby (103-10), 111 Preakness (98-13), and 118 Belmont (113-05). Obvious problems with the variant on that day.

Spectacular Bid ran raw ratings over 100 numerous times with all of his track records and had many figures in the 120 range. Three times as a 2yo he broke 117 for the combined figure including the 123 (98-25) he earned in a 7f race on a dead track. The 10f record he set in the 1980 Strub at Santa Anita -1:57.4- was 112 (104-08)

The 90's brought about Beyers, so the ratings became obsolete, though DRF still publishes. A few notables in the 90's that I can find...Artax went 123,124 in back to back races ending his championship sprint campaign in 1999. Bertrando was given a 125 for his 1993 Woodward in the slop. Cigar was awarded Beyers over 115 thirteen times (ridiculous) with a top of 121 in the 95 Oaklawn. Holy Bull had seven over 115 with a top of 122. Serena's Song appears to be the fastest filly with 7 Beyers over 110 (no data for Bayakoya). Silver Charm had six 115+ with a top of 123. Skip Away posted 13 Beyers of 115 or better including 8 in a row and back to back 125, 122 in the 1997 Pimlico Special, Mass Handicap. Everyone talks about Ghostzapper, but the real sheet freak was Formal Gold who ran consecutive Beyers of 126, 125, 124 and ran the highest first timer Beyer of 112. He was robbed of the HOY honors by Skip Away whom he drilled twice by 5+ lengths, so his heroics have been somewhat forgotten.

Thunder G,
Thanks for doing the research. I certainly enjoyed reading your findings.
It never ceases to amaze me that when someone asks, a Dt'er will find.
Truth be told, I still look at Beyer numbers, but now I'll be taking them with a "grain of salt".
Thanks.
DTS

You are welcome. I enjoyed looking it up myself. By the way, if you don't have one of the editions of "Champions", do yourself a favor and splurge to get that. I like reading about the history of the game and the behind the scenes stories, but all handicappers can appreciate the amazing past performances of some of these champs.

I would have problems with MOW getting a big figure for his "victory" in the Lawrence Realization...he faced one horse, Hoodwink...he was entered solely as a favor to prevent a walk-over. Hoodwink won slightly over $2700 in his extremely undistinguished career, probably most of it that day! The race, and the 100 length victory were a joke...hard to believe MOW was pushed, probably galloped in fact!

That is good stuff, Thunder Gulch!...A fun read...Thanks!!!

Fantastic info, TG. Just to add on a tidbit to that..

The last horse to break 130 on the Beyer scale was Groovy, who got a 133 and a 132 in back-to-back sprint races in '87!

Thunder, thanks.... Great stuff. Always fun to compare the best of different generations!