7/2: HOL P6 Carry (3rd-8th)
 

Travel back home to NY prevented chance to look at Sunday's carries at BEL and HOL, but approachable Monday card appears highly playable. With little other major action across U.S., expect Hollywood to be the focus of all players, and titanic pool should swell to outrageous sum..

HOLLYWOOD PARK

Pre-Scratches..

3rd: CLM, 4+, 9f (P6, P3)

1. #6 Plan for Fun 4-1: Knapp 4yo in form, has few knocks.. 3rd
2. #8 Skipaslew 2-1: One-time stud takes precipitous drop.. WON
A. #4 Black Horse Money 5-1: Miyadi red gelding drops, goes T2D.. 5th
B. #7 Talaris 5-1 9th


4th: ALW/S, 3+, 5.5f (P3)

Is there a rule in California that requires Tony Montana to be on the card of EVERY major carryover?

1. #1 Dr. Mohrbacher 3-1: O'Neill DepMin gelding can win right back.. 3rd
2. #2 Tony Montana 7-2: Broke MDN in Jan. SA carry nightcap..
A. #4 Pressthepace 5-1: Has fallen just short of 2nd win repeatedly.. WON
B. #7 Coyote Fast 5-2 4th


5th: ALW/N1X, 8.5f (P4, P3)

1. #3 Get Off the Sugar 5-2: Dollase-Flores connecting; Bay stalks and goes.. 3rd
2. #1 Point of Impact 5-1: $800,000 under gavel but wheels came off.. 8th
A. #6 Key Maker 7-2: Claimbox hero now with O'Neill; 2-3-0 last 5.. 7th
B. #2 SCRATCHED


6th: Cal-bred MSW, F&M-3+, 6.5f (P3)

1. #8 Hottest 5-1: Sherman firster looks ready to pop.. 3rd
2. #4 Bench Wench 5-2: ML fave good enough in bow to rise a level.. 5th
A. #2 Peace by Peace 8-1: Yonaguska miss from Howie should improve.. 2nd
B. #7 Lt. Lorraine 2-1 WON

$1 Exacta $28.10
$1 Trifecta $102.50


7th: 1st Honest Lady, 3yo-F, 6.5f

Inaugural running of sprint stake named for one of our favorite recent runners.. Juddmonte diva keyed monsterous score in '00 BC Sprint when 2nd to Kona Gold at 31-1.. Race key to P6 hopes of many with 6 of 7 entered eligible for honors.. The place to spread if you can afford to, or take swing and single (My approach)..

1. #2 SCRATCHED
2. #4 Coco Belle 5-1: Moss miss looks recovered from huge effort 3 back.. 3rd
A. #1 Desire to Excel 12-1: Special at two and back to near best last out.. WON
B. #6 Glorified 2-1: Pair she beat in maiden win were ordinary over weekend.. 2nd

$1 Exacta $14.40
$1 Trifecta $68.70


8th: MDN CLM, 3yo, 6f

1. #2 Oh Shine 8-1: Capestro bay chased Dr. Mohrbacher (today R4) last.. 2nd
2. #14 Cool Hand Lucca 7-2: Back versus sophs only and drops from MSW company.. 3rd
A. #4 Kickin Caper 8-1: Showed speed when last seen; Bulleted for return.. 12th
B. #5 Rydell 8-1 11th


<$150 P6 Play:

3: 6-8
4: 1-2-4
5: 1-3-6
6: 4-8
7: 4
8: 2-14

2x3x3x2x1x2 = 72 x $2 = $144


Good luck!
Steve

I wondered if anyone else would remember that. He anchored the last huge carry in January.

I am a huge fan of Coyote Fast and O'Neil's horse in the 7th (outside horse). Both have number power. I am singling Coyote Fast and using three in the 7th but I am surprised Byk didn't even mention that O'Neil horse in the 7th given the pace scenario.

To help clarify this for readers... Coyote Fast is the #7 in the 4th race... O'Neill's horse in the 7th is #7 You Are the Answer...

And "Byk" didn't include Coyote Fast because he has reacted adversely to prior big performances.. May be a different horse on CushionTrack, but seems sure to be hung wide at abbreviated sprint distance and appears just one of the other 'possibles' behind the top pair. Can't fault those taking a positive stance.

You Are the Answer ran her worst race on the Cushion, though it may have been a function of a classic reaction scenario to the 2 prior efforts. I'm more inclined to believe she is a mediocrity. To quote a top capper I know, "If she wins, I lose.."

Yo, Coyote Fast's last was first time no nuts, expect improvement in Scav's opinion

I agree about Answer, but given the pace scenario, I don't see how she isn't there at the end. I just tossed her in not to get beat by her. I am also using Coco Belle because they have expected something out of her for some time, and into a stakes off the layoff is a positive to me

That's the same opinion that guaranteed Gotta Go Gal's breakdown Friday, right? ;)

Yes...She ran well having three legs. Wasn't guaranteeing breakdown, but it is coming. I was cursing up a storm becuase I know the **** would come from you.

That is ok, at Arlington yesterday I said Lucyswordsoflove couldn't win becuase there was no reason for the drop, and she won, very cold recently.

I rarely dispense the "****"... Just 'givin' you the bizness..'

Fact is simply that sore-going horses work, run, and run well all the time... They cannot be casually dismissed. As Haskin discussed on the show Thursday, the last year of Forego's career he could barely walk around the shed row, yet went out and won hard-fought victories..

Forego and Gotta Go Gal in the same context.....OMG

now-now....lets focus on the $5M+ prize..

Playful Root, playful.

What you dropping today. I see it as formful, 1st leg is the only one I am really worried about

really? I am having a hard time, specially with the the the 6th, 7th, and 8th.

In the 3rd, Plan for Fun and Skipaslew have it covered. Could prob single Skipaslew....Carava is hot and is unloading stock for del mar...


Did you see Hottest scratched twice recently, first at GG when entered in a $20k claimer, and then again in a MSW here at hollywood.....something going on.

I like Hottest and I like Nak's horse in that race. Nak isn't riding for that trainer for shits and giggles. Mitchell's horse could be heavy favorite in that race also.

I think the 8th is as simple at 2,3,14 and I wouldn't argue with people saying I am on crack with the 3 but being fresh, he has highly competitive figs and lays over the field.

In the 7th, I thought I was singling Glorified for fun, but her numbers are surprising. Coca Belle could run huge ( I like into a stakes race off a layoff) and I think it sets up well for Answer. So I am using three there my ticket structure is

3x1x2x2x3x3

I think Lt. Lorraine will be a bust, as well as Bench Wench. I am using #2 PEace by PEace, #5 Irish Express, and #8 Hottest.

Question, did Martin Garcia get off of Lt. Lorraine for the #6 Perfectly Sweet? He rides for mitchell all the time and almost won last time out.....I am sure Mitchell didnt kick him off for M. Baze did he?

Use the 4, Nakatini doesn't ride for hilarious trainers unless the horse is live as hell and has a huge shot at winning. Now if Nak doesn't show up today, different ball game

R4 - Dr. Mohrbacher
 

Anyone else find it odd that the 1 was entered in a 40k mcl first out?

Reddam/O'neil usually place them where they fit - but a 300k purchase in for a 40k tag at first asking? I also find the condition pretty tough for these youngsters, basically running Allowance N2L against older horses off an mcl win...Probably use in under in exotics, but asking a lot of him to win this

Anyone have 1st start percentage for Siberian Summer (Irish Express)?

Thanks

Here is our ticket. Pending patrners second guessing...

R3 - 8,6,4
R4 - 7,2,1
R5 - 3,6
R6 - 8,4,2
R7 - 6,4
R8 - 14,2
$432

Good Luck!

10%

Steve, it looks like your single (swiss diva) is a scratch. How will you play it now?