6/13: Belmont (Late P4)
 

BELMONT PARK

POST-SCRATCHES

6th: MDN CLM, 3+, 9f-T (P4, DD)

1. #3 SCRATCHED SUB: #6 Good Looking Out 15-1 WON
2. #8 Riz Sauvage 3-1: Regally-bred Mott runner drops in from MSW's.. 8th
A. #7 Reknown 5-1: Dynaformer 4yo on way to being professional maiden.. 3rd
B. #4 Caught Stealing 9-2: Serpe going well and DepMin 3yo keeps Edgar.. 5th


7th: NYB-ALW/N1X, 3+, 1m (P3, Super)

1. #8 FRENCH TRANSITION 5-2: Moves to Pancho and surface of best try.. WON
2. #6 Love Abroad 4-1: Consistant board-hitter threat with repeat of last.. 5th
A. #7 Wally World 8-1: In Supers last 8; Better going one turn.. 2nd
B. #2 Stopbluffing 6-1: Carroll gelding had no answer 1st v. elders last out.. 3rd

SUPER INCLUDE: #1 Raven H 7-2 6th

$1 Daily Double 6-8 $122.25
$2 Exacta 8-7 $25.75
$2 Trifecta 8-7-2 $207.50


8th: OC/N2X, 3+, 6f-T (DD)

1. #2 LOCONIA 7-2: Motion Rahy bay never worse than 4th career; Gets set-up.. 6th
2. #1a SCRATCHED SUB: #3 Silver Timber 3-1 3rd
3. #6 Casey's Joy 5-1: KMc-West Pointer broke through with turf move last.. 5th


9th: NYB-MSW, 3+, 9f-T (Super)

1. #6 SCRATCHED SUB: AE #13 Dr. D. F. C. 7-2: Merits big shot drawing in.. 3rd (moved up on DQ)
2. #7 Triple Bogey Blues 4-1: Length ahead of choice last time.. 6th (DQ from 3rd)
A. #2 Victory Assured 5-1: Has given empty assurance 6X before.. 2nd
B. #10 SCRATCHED SUB: #5 Raptime 20-1 7th


<$50 P4-P3 Plays:

6: 4-6-7-8
7: 6-7-8
8: 2 (P3 add 3)
9: 2-7-13 (P3 add 3-5)

P4: 4x3x1x3 = $36 (or add 3 for $72 P4 play..)
P3: 3x2x5 = $30


Good luck!
Steve

why is Dubliner back so soon?

Hey Steve, you ever think about putting out a Grand Slam bet? I know the payouts can range anywhere from $5 to $500. I've actually done pretty well pounding that bet.. I don't know how many times I've gotten a $20+ payout on a horse(in the last leg) that goes off at 4/5. In general, it's more of a grinder's bet I think.

I hate French Transition in today's 7th race. I think he's the biggest trap of the meet. Good luck to those that take 4:5 on him.

Several key scratches/changes today at BEL..

http://www.equibase.com/premium/changes/BEL-changes.asp

Steve

Is there anyway Gwedda #1 improves enough to get past both Rondo and Holy Canyon in the 3rd today.

Seems like an odd place for Badgett Jr to get back in the game unless you look at the Woody Stevens as even worse.

Seems like this race is a bear...

Like Bold Buy a bit here. No room the length of the stretch last out and added distance should help. Anchor man up, doesn't help, however.

Wallstreetcorredor is coming out of a race that's produced 2 winners (and a 2nd by a nose at MTH).

Funny you mention that. Steve and I were discussing the merits of the wager last night on ATRAB, I think it's garbage.

What is your wagering strategy on it?

I agree, there are many days it isn't worth playing.. i.e. when there are short fields in the legs leading up to the feature/anchor leg.

When I do play, I usually go: single/single/single/(anywhere from 1 to 4 horses--usually just one or two in the last)..

Obviously, the value of the bet only comes into play if you reach the final leg. As I mentioned earlier, there are many times I've gotten to that last leg where I singled a horse who went off at even money or less, and the Grand Slam payout is $15 or higher to that horse. Meaning, he went from odds-on to a 6-1 payout or higher. I usually only make $10 to $20 bets so I catch the payout 5-10 times.

Of course, if I think the last leg is completely wide open, I may do the opposite and spread my way to the end.. But, if I'm spending more than $40, it's probably not worth it.

For today, as an example, I'd probably play something like this:

5/4/6/2,3 =$20 x 2= $40

(exton)/(caught Stealing)/(Love Abroad)/(Loconia, Silver Timber)


I'm playing against a few favorites (in early legs and the last) so the payout could be anywhere from $20-$60 per $2 bet. (assuming a favorite misses the board early in the sequence, and the favorite in the last goes down.)


The most interesting thing I find when I handicap this bet is that I'll play horses I KNOW aren't going to win, but I am pretty confident they'll hit the board.(in the first three legs)

My beef with the bet is there is no additional value in selecting a 99-1 horse to hit the board vs. a 1/5. Some schmuck who uses 3 favorites who all finish 3rd vs. any "creative" selections get the same payoff...

I had a thought on how to improve the wager, and possibly make it more fun. Make it a real "Grand Slam":
Leg 1: Runner must finish EXACTLY 4th
Leg 2: Runner must finish EXACTLY 3rd
Leg 3: Runner must finish EXACTLY 2nd
Leg 4: Runner must Win

Speed ruling at Big Sandy here after the two day break... Nothing coming back...

What illogical result have we seen?

"Damn you and your green-blooded logic Spock.."

THAT is how you kick off the pick4... Nice Steve!

14 is scratched in the last, correct?

Thx., and yes, typed in the 14 when I revised post-scratches, but it is of course the AE-13 in as I noted originally this a.m...

Sh*t... I only played 2,7 in last. Didn't have a program today.

Guess I will just hold my breath and hope for best...

Good Luck!

Pat,

Hopefully no harm done.. Good luck!

Half way home... I used 2 and 3 in the 8th.

Covered my error with DD's 2/13, 3,/13.

Great call in the 6th!

Brutal.. just brutal. Edgar bottled up on Loconia. Sorry...

now you apologize for jockey's too?:p