DOGWOOD: Nafzger/Borel Tops at Downs..
 

girls pearls and moonie ponds in...

$150,000 Dogwood Breeders' Cup Stakes (gr. III, Race 9, 5:21 p.m.), 3-Year-Old Fillies, 1 Mile

1. Lady Joanne (KY), 123, Calvin H. Borel, 3/1
2. Silverinyourpocket (KY), 117, Ramon A. Dominguez, 7/2
3. Moonee Ponds (KY), 121, Jamie Theriot, 6/1
4. Upcoming Story (KY), 117, Julien R. Leparoux, 6/1
5. Suaveness (FL), 117, Rafael Bejarano, 5/1
6. Looky Yonder (KY), 117, Robby Albarado, 15/1
7. High Again (KY), 123, David R. Flores, 9/2
8. Girls Pearls (KY), 117, Larry Melancon, 12/1
9. Gatorize (KY), 117, Shaun Bridgmohan, 15/1

We'd be 47-1 again... There's barely a horse in there we could beat.

shouldn't one assume that if these are running for $150,000 this weekend, most would be ready to come back in a month for $200k in the Iowa Oaks?

no steve what im saying is we would like these two to run well as a guage sence someone out worked moonie and gave girls all she could handle wile not in here best form...

Hey guys do we know what TGH number thet gave "somewon" from the last saturdays race.

My guess is Steve and Chuck are using this opportunity as a training session rather than thinking she belongs in this class race. Perhaps by running with classes above, when she is in a properly slotted race her confidence Zooms when she overtakes her own .......Is it something close to that guys??

Yeah.. But we may have a better horse in that month than we do now.. The only horses in the Dogwood Sumwon is as fast as right now are Gatorize and Moonie Ponds.

Got ya... Girls Pearls has EXPLODED forward last three... Ran a '4' last in that ALW..

I haven't looked at the PP's yet but 12-1 on Girls Pearls seems awful generous. It's not like High Again is a monster...

Lol.....what an idiot I am as I obviously missed the point badly here!!!!

Key race = other horses from very competitive race.....duh!!!!

Someone needs to reboot my computer.....

Sumwon did have a tactical edge (pace wise) on Girls Pearls the day they met.

Sumwon was aided by the 46.28 half mile, by comparison claiming males went 45.02 at the same distance later on in the card--and the final time of the males race was 0.32 seconds slower.

While Girls Pearls wasn't far off in 5th place after a half mile, as you know, slow fractions tend to work against closers, even if they can secure a decent spot not far off of them.

Perhaps a little more favorable pace situation caused GP to run a real nice number and upset that alw race at 8/1 next out.

Still, Sumwon is razor sharp off her last two races, and very few kind of horses can positively surprise like a sharp 3yo filly can. I hope she stays sharp and breezes through the alw condition for you guys...and than you can really entertain the ideas of finding a spot to take a stab at some black type, and enhance the broodmare value. That would be sweet.

This race is very tough. I'm entertaining the possibility of betting Looky Yonder. She got slammed pretty hard after the start last time and still ran OK.

DrugS,

Did you do Girls Pearls' ALW score? She was the easiest kind of winner that day sitting well off a contested pace and then swooping around in the stretch and drawing off. I spoke to McPeek last week and he said exactly what you do above: Girls Pearls was in sharp form and he ran her back on 11 days to take advantage.

Your plan for Sumwon is pretty much dead on, though there isn't anything in the CD book for her in the near term. The minor stake at MTH 6/23 looks like a spot to try...

Steve, I'm sure you know that speed is doing quite well (to say the least) early on at Monmouth Park! Get her over there as soon as possible (but no less than 3 weeks from her last start:) )

My betting focus lately has been on national stake races and early season 2-year-old races throughout the country---and not on traditional racing circuit handicapping like it always has been in the past.

Looking at Girls Pearls ALW win, it looked really legit. She tripped out ok, and the pace was contensted like you say...but it really wasn't all that fast of one. She did run an excellent race, and nicely beat some horses who were certainly very well thought of at age 2 anyway. The 2nd place finisher was 2/1 in a Grade 1 stake (albeit perhaps the worst running of the Frizette I've ever seen) and the 4th place finisher was a $2.4 million RNA at KEE April '06. Girls Pearls could certainly outrun her odds in the Dogwood.

I've really been tremendously impressed with how well everything has worked out with the partnership. I really liked the reasoning you gave for buying this horse...and thought she was just an excellent choice by you guys. Although, I really have to admit, that I thought if she was going to be competitive in Churchill Downs allowance races...they'd have been turf races off the pedigree projection.

I've really enjoyed watching her develop in her races anyway....and watching everything pan out so well for the stable.

the results of Girls Pearls and Moonee Ponds could influence where Sumwon goes next? NJ or IA ??

steve...being girls pearls is coming off 3 fwd races....does she still have a shot in this race ?

DD,

I'll let Chuck respond for us, but I'd say their results will be 'interesting' to see only. How the filly herself is acting leading up to a next start will influence where that effort will be...

P2P,

I wouldn't put anything past the McPeek barn right now.. He's hot. If she duplicates her effort from three weeks ago, she's right there with the top choices. Haven't looked at PP's close enough to get a read on pace scenario, but from a pure speed standpoint, she's an overlay.

Remember that McPeek has Lansdon Robbins' nice filly in here too.. Looky Yonder. Also looks to be a major player...

thanks steve...i did notice that......3 nice races in a row there....how is sumwon doing this week off that effort ?

just to clarify...i was talking about the 3 stakes on the card for SAT. at CD