Curlin: Forwards or Backwards?
 

Don't get me wrong. I think Curlin has a world of talent. But I think he might benefit from a break. He's been asked to do a lot in a short period of time, without the benefit of two-year-old foundation. I can't help but view that as a big negative.

Of course, he ran better than I thought he would in the Derby. So who knows? Maybe he got the seasoning he was lacking. Although, even if he did, a break still might be best.

...and I sure didn't like hearing on ESPN that a number of rival trainers think he got a ton out of the Derby, and is ready to run huge.

They are just trying to jinx him!!
Personally I think he regresses here

Certaintly would think his trip would be 100x better but its hard getting by the big 2. They are just faster at this point nothing else to it.

I think he's good enough to maybe maintain his form here and he's my pick to win but I think he'll pay the price for it and be forced to miss a lot of time after this race and probably will be knocked out of the picture from the Haskell and Travers. Just my opinion.

He's been remarkably consistent throughout his four starts, so while my common sense tells me that he's got to take a step back at some point -- I'd not be willing to wager on when that was going to be, since I figured it would be last time out at the grueling ten furlong trip.

I'm not sure we know how good he is yet.

I hope you are right. Earlier I was visualizing how the race turns out...to my surprise I suddenly became scared of Curlin beating Street Sense. I think part of this comes from the unknown of how this horse will really fare given a more reasonable trip against the best competition he can face at this point. The Derby just didn't give us the best examination for this.

On a side note, how cool would it be if Lukas and Zito ran 1-2?

That would not be cool at all, because if that happens that means every other horse in the race broke down.
That is the only way Lukas's horse could have any chance of hitting the exacta, and frankly I don't think horses breaking down is in any way cool.
Well, on second thought, I suppose if every other horse scratches then it might be possible too. But that still isn't very cool.

Once again, more about the lack of a two year old foundation. I think that Curlin runs big Saturday and I am leaning towards him to win the Preakness, I still worry about Albarado though. I do believe that this is a very talented racehorse.

I think he'll run about the same as he always has, which won't get it done.

As most have said, it'll take a monster effort by any horse outside the top three to win this thing. I don't see Curlin being out of the tri.

Don't forget that if CQ had run in the Wood as planned, and done reasonably well, he might have been the Derby favorite or close to it. IMO he was short two weeks ago and has every chance to run huge.
Pino has the advantage here that Borel had at Churchill. Other than Xchanger, no horse in the race has run here.

I think Curlin could run very well. In watching the iso shot that nbcsports put on their site of Nobiz, you can see Curlin flying by horses late. It's easy to miss on the pan shot of the race. (I'm shocked in fact that NBC didn't appear to have an iso on Curlin. If they did, they never posted it on their site.) Curlin's early pace fig in the Derby was consistent with his 2 prior races so I was not surprised by his position at CD. I think he'll be closer on Sat, but not so close that he loses his kick. His greeness may have showed a bit in a big field. He won't have to deal with a mob scene this time and I can envision an Ark Derby like run for him, IF SS bounces or doesn't get his gold trip and Hard Spun in used hard on the pace set by FFC and Xchanger.

I'm betting it's time for Curlin to take a step backwards, but then again, I thought the same thing about Bernardini before last year's Preakness.

Some great points here for & against.... I wonder if the ""fresh"" horses may take some $$'s and let Curlin move up in the betting odds, giving a nice payoff ?

Street Sense is going to get pounded here and I am not willing to take even money or shorter on him, obvioulsy he has to be included in the exotics. However, I think that Curlin can go off in the 4-1 to 6-1 range here offering value. I think he gets a good trip off the pace and agree with the analysis that he could get a similar trip in the Ark Derby. Personally, I think he is dangerous here.