Free software that helps with making a line
 

I’ve created an Excel spreadsheet that helps in making an odds line that “makes sense”. Anyone here can have it for the asking. Here's what it does:

You input your estimate of the odds for each horse. After you’ve entered all the odds, the sheet will adjust the odds so that the odds fit your specified “takeout”. You can create a “fair odds line” by specifying a 0% takeout. Or, you can turn your odds into a line that reflects the takeout at the track. For example, for Pimlico you’d specify 18%.

A “fair odds line” can be useful for betting purposes. If you have a self-consistent odds line where Horse A is at 2-1, and you see that with 1 min to post Horse A is 4-1, you should at least be considering a bet!

I’ve tried to make the spreadsheet very easy to use. If anyone is interested in having it, I can send it by email attachment. It’s not very large. Just post a request with your email address in this thread, or send me a PM here at Derby Trail, or email me at h_dunbar@hotmail.com.

You will need Excel to use the program. I’ll be glad to answer questions about the program either before or after you receive it.

--Dunbar

Here's a little more info on what this spreadsheet program will and will not do.

It won't create a line from scratch. You have to have some initial idea of what the odds on each horse in a race should be. What the program WILL do is see if the odds, taken together, make sense. For example, let's take the morning line for the Preakness.

1 - Mint Slewup 30-1
2 - Xchanger 15 - 1
3 - Circular Quay 8 - 1
4 - Curlin 7 -2
5 - King of Roxy 12-1
6 - Flying First Class 20 -1
7 - Hard Spun 5-2
8 - Street Sense 7-5
9 - C P West 20 -1

If you input those odds into the program, you immediately know that they correspond to a 23.2% track take, not the 18% track take at Pimlico. An 18% track take, keeping the same relative odds of the ML, would look like this:

1 - Mint Slewup 35-1
2 - Xchanger 16 - 1
3 - Circular Quay 9 - 1
4 - Curlin 4-1
5 - King of Roxy 13-1
6 - Flying First Class 22 -1
7 - Hard Spun 5-2
8 - Street Sense 3-2
9 - C P West 22 -1

Those are only slightly higher than the morning line. But the biggest change is when you use the program to convert the ML to a fair odds line (with no takeout):

1 - Mint Slewup 40-1
2 - Xchanger 21 - 1
3 - Circular Quay 11 - 1
4 - Curlin 5-1
5 - King of Roxy 17-1
6 - Flying First Class 30 -1
7 - Hard Spun 7-2
8 - Street Sense 2-1
9 - C P West 30 -1

So Street Sense, 7-5 in the ML, would be 2-1 if you remove the takeout. King of the Roxy moves from 12-1 to 17-1. You might think 8-1 on Circular Quay is ridiculously low; but that's "really" 11-1 if you remove the takeout factor.

If you think the ML generally reflects the chance of each horse winning, it would still be important to convert it to a line with 0% takeout before considering a bet.

You, of course, don't have to use the ML at all. I only used it to demonstrate how much difference there is between an ML and a line with no takeout. The spreadsheet will convert any odds line to either a fair odds line or the 18% (or whatever) track take odds line.

--Dunbar

Dunbar-

Very Cool!

I'm interested. . .

Please send to brian.didonato@conncoll.edu

Thanks!

yes i would also like it


thx

jitbag@comcast.net

Here he goes :)

i would like a look as well
gcox70@hotmail.com

thx

i'll take a copy... thanks!

jeremyawilliamson@gmail.com

This spreadsheet is really cool, I've been having a really interesting time plugging in different races and seeing how my original thoughts on a race compare to what they would actually reflect on the board with the correct takeout.

It's been very educational, thanks Dunbar.

I'll take one.

pgardnerjr@satx.rr.com

I made one a while back (when I first learned basic language 27 years ago), but it works on basica. It will be interesting to compare... thanks.

Thanks very much, Brian. Glad you're having fun with it.

Anyone who has asked for a copy should have received it by now. If not, please get in touch with me again.

--Dunbar

Wo you made it user friendly. Excellent. Thats the diff. between a good program and a program written for the programmer (that was my way of doing things). I had a bit more stuff in it but I was the only one that could use it. I was very sloppy.

Thanks a bunch, a nice neat little package.

anyone know where to find a free program to keep track of you wagers?
i.e. a diary?

You could use Excel for that fairly easily. If not, I could write one on Excel for you if you tell me exactly what you want to keep track of.

thanks...but i lost excel when my computer crashed. if i "obtain" it again, I'll let you know.