Curlin
 

Even without the post draw, everyone is looking for reasons to not play him. Reason number one is asking him to win the Derby in his fourth start. Number two is lack of quality that he has beaten. The third is not willing to take the low odds on him.The most valid as far as im concerned is that Albarado will lose it. All this said it looks to me he is what he is and will smoke them. Maybe he will regress sometime but all he has done is improve so far. He looks as if he will continue to improve.

I can only hope that people keep looking to beat this horse, leaving better odds for me. Agree with you, the only two negatives I see at this point is Albarado and the possibility of getting a really bad post. I don't mind that he hasn't raced against the greastest competition, he has blown away everything thrown at him. Other than the Bluegrass, a race in which the results have given me nothing to use in factoring the derby, who has faced really good competition? Didn't a horse named Bernardini come into the Preakness last year off a similar record?

Say what you will about Albarado, he's hot this year, has won 4 of the main Derby preps on 3 different horses. (Notional, Curlin, Slew's Tizzy).

Who has faced good competition?
Scat Daddy, Stormello, Circular Quay, Great Hunter, Any Given Saturday, Street Sense, Nobiz Like Shobiz, Dominican, and just about every other horse in the field.

Curlin has a ton of talent, but running past Flying First Class and Deadly Dealer is not the same as going 1-1/4 miles against 19 other horses, many of whom have been through the wars and are battle tested.

Curlin is joining the ranks of Afleet Alex and Bernardini for most threads ever about one horse. Perhaps there can be a "Curlin" section in the main forum?

Curlin = Showing Up

Just my two cents.

Curlin = not ready for 10 furlongs.

You think that Scat Daddy is? I'd take Curlin at ten furlongs way before I'd take Scat Daddy.

If you read my post correctly, I excluded the Bluegrass. However, was the Florida Derby, Louisiana Derby and the Wood really strong fields? My point is that I don't think that it is a knock on Curlin that he hasn't faced strong competition when he has blown everything away that he has faced. Your point on being "battle tested" could be valid, but I think that is a little overrated as well. I see nothing wrong with what Curlin has done, especially the professional way he ran in the Arkansas Derby. If people want to throw him out, that is fine with me.

Not me... I'll admit I'm concerned about Scat Daddy getting that last 1/8th of a mile, but I think he'll be at the wire before Curlin.

Fair enough. I don't think there's any median opinion on Curlin. Everyone seems to either think he'll win or get trounced.

The only horse on Curlin's par of facing lesser competition is Hard Spun. Both have only faced two potential entrants into the Derby including a common opponent of Teuflesberger.

And which horse pointing to the race looked better than him at 9 furlongs?

Possibly Tiago; and maybe the super horses that ran in the Bluegrass. But you have a pt.

Another 1/8th surely did not look like a problem to me for Curlin off his last.

Turf races don't count.

You are really not helping me get a price on Curlin.

I don't get the issue with Albarado? He has been great this year so far. It's truly hard to find many that have been riding better than him. What else could he do for some of you to not look at him as a negative? I know that he hasn't always been that good, but man he is on fire this year.

I think it is between him and Street Sense.

That's the biggest reason for me

Agreed!