Who takes the lead....
 

If Teuf doesnt go in the Derby then who gets the lead? Stormello would be an obvious choice, but Currin is trying to get the horse to stalk (which doesnt make sense to me). Xchanger would be a choice since he has shown speen in his last two starts. But he doesnt need the lead. Cobalt Blue showed speed in one race so I doubt he goes to the lead. I guess that really leaves Liquidity. I could see this race being one of the slowest Derby's.

Hard Spun will take it if none of those want it. That's a reason to keep Hard Spun in your tickets. Cowtown and NoBiz will probably press whomever is on the lead and keep the fractions somewhat honest; either of these could possibly take the lead. I agree it does not seem that they will be blazing. Hard Spun has shown an ability to rate on the lead. Slews Tizzy should also get mention as he went wire to wire in last race.

I think everyone will talk about taking back so much that all the jocks will all end up panicking at once and sending way too soon.

everyone will begin their run 5 furlongs out or sooner in my opinion. everyone but one...Circular Quay

Liquidity?

A one-word post followed by a thirty-word signature? :D
I haven't been a big Hard Spun fan since the Oaklawn fiasco.....but if the race comes up without a lot of pace and several trainers decide to try to rate their horses for the first time, Hard Spun might steal it on the front end. He is bred to go 10f, has good speed out of the gate, and if they don't push him through the first half quickly....he just might be there at the end. I don't think you can toss Hard Spun for that reason.
All of the other "speed" horses in the race this year would need to strap a motor to their ass to get 10f.

Mira, I am slowly buying into the theory that Hard Spun might be able to steal the race on the lead. Another horse that is intriguing is No Biz. He could get a perfect stalking trip behind the leader(s) and then pounce. I know I said I would throw both of those horses out, but when I create my mythical charts of the race I come up with Hard Spun on the lead with No Biz stalking.

I think Hard Spun could end up being bet down for exactly this reason.

Had to get to work...what can I say???

Oh, by the way...which was the "greater" horse from that race in your signature?

I would go with Sunday Silence. He is my all-time favorite horse.
Both of their careers were extremely good. Between the two of them they raced 34 times, and only finished out of the exacta once (a third place finish by Easy Goer). They were both so good....it is hard to rank them.
However, they raced against each other four times and Sunday beat him 3 out of the 4. That is why I have to give him the edge.

Stormello is going to the lead, that whole thing how he is trying to rate is a load of crap, tactical comments.....he is going to try and steal this race on the lead

That's the only difference

You may be right about that. I don't think Stormello has a chance no matter what they do with him, but if he does wing it on the front end....it could seriously hurt horses like Hard Spun.

He is the ONLY horse that could War Emblem the field, that is about it.....

I agree, probably Stormello... in hopes of going :12 panels all the way around. He may actually be around for the last 1/8 if it comes up soft....I don't like his chances to win, but I'd use him in tri's and supers.

It makes no differance what post Curlin comes out of . He will use his speed to get position and then relax. He dosent need or probably dosent want it. He will run his race stalking and if someone has abetter kick down the stretch they will have to pass him.

Kent will change that plan when the gates open.:D