Derby Trail Forums - My Derby throw-outs

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- - My Derby throw-outs (http://www.derbytrail.com/forums/showthread.php?t=12095)

ceejay

04-17-2007 10:24 AM

My Derby throw-outs

No names yet, just conditions. Throwing out horses who:

Do not have their top or second top Beyer last out.
Have BSF descending by > 5 points from second last to last out
Did not start as a 2yo

By my count none of the last 14 winners met any of these criteria. I may also require a BSF >99 on the PP line: That was only broken by Giacamo in the last 14 KD's.

SniperSB23

04-17-2007 10:27 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ceejay

No names yet, just conditions. Throwing out horses who:

Do not have their top or second top Beyer last out.
Have BSF descending by > 5 points from second last to last out
Did not start as a 2yo

By my count none of the last 14 winners met any of these criteria. I may also require a BSF >99 on the PP line: That was only broken by Giacamo in the last 14 KD's.

Looks like you are tossing the two favorites right off the bat.

The Indomitable DrugS

04-17-2007 10:40 AM

Here are possible Derby runners who won't be on any of my tickets....

Belgravia
Circular Quay
Cowtown Cat
Liquidity
Officer Rocket
Stormello
Teuflesburg
Tiago
Zanjero

Here are the Derby runners who'll be used only lightly, and only in the 3rd and 4th place positions of some of my exotics.

Chelokee
Domincan

The following will be lightly used...but may appear in the 1st and 2nd slot in one or two of my exotic tickets.

Nobiz Like Shobiz
Sam. P.
Scat Daddy
Street Sense

The following three will appear in all my exotic tickets.

Curlin
Hard Spun
Great Hunter

And Any Given Saturday is my pick to win the race, and who I intend to key in each of the top three slots of my exotic tickets.

ceejay

04-17-2007 10:47 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by SniperSB23

Looks like you are tossing the two favorites right off the bat.

If Curlin beats me as a 7/2 or so favorite, so be it. I won't take those odds to break a 14+ or actually 125 year trend. I remember Bellamy Road.

I also think that the second choice, Street Sense will be underlaid at ~9/2.

smuthg

04-17-2007 12:29 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

Looks like you've got it all figured out to me...

Java Gold

04-17-2007 01:07 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

I wish for 10 minutes on May 5th I could transform into a betting window in front of you...

Java OUT

hockey2315

04-17-2007 01:10 PM

I REALLY wanna toss Curlin. . . but. . . I am almost positive that he's the most talented horse in the race, and I think he MAY have the immense amount of talent it would take to overcome a severe lack of foundation/experience. . . 7/2 is making it easier for me to toss him though. . .

Mortimer

04-17-2007 01:36 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by smuthg

Looks like you've got it all figured out to me...

He thought he had tether ball figured out,too.

SentToStud

04-17-2007 01:49 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Java Gold

I wish for 10 minutes on May 5th I could transform into a betting window in front of you...

Java OUT

That's fairly classless of you.

You must still be pissed off about Cobalt Blue. How'd you do there?

blackthroatedwind

04-17-2007 01:52 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by SentToStud

That's fairly classless of you.

You must still be pissed off about Cobalt Blue. How'd you do there?

When I read that post I couldn't help but think of the line from " Positively 4th Street "....

Yes, I wish that for just one time
You could stand inside my shoes
You'd know what a drag it is
To see you

blackthroatedwind

04-17-2007 01:55 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Java Gold

I wish for 10 minutes on May 5th I could transform into a betting window in front of you...

Java OUT

I wish you booked all his bets.

JJP	04-17-2007 06:48 PM

Teufelsberg is even money to run dead last.

Cajungator26

04-17-2007 07:02 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by JJP

Teufelsberg is even money to run dead last.

I don't think he'll run last... I can see him finishing 8th or 9th maybe, but not dead last.

JJP	04-17-2007 07:59 PM

At 10 furlongs, I say there's a very good chance Teufelsberg is a DNF. He went 1:16 and change and was staggering like a drunk near the wire in the Blue Grass. I hope those connections spare the horse the misery and do the right thing: keep him sprinting.

blackthroatedwind

04-17-2007 08:05 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Cajungator26

I don't think he'll run last... I can see him finishing 8th or 9th maybe, but not dead last.

I'll take under for $50K please.

POINTGIVEN1985

04-17-2007 08:11 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

call me crazy, and im sure alot of you will, but im hoping belgravia runs huge this weekend and then goes to the derby, because with his style i truly belive he could have a impact on the race.....by a impact i mean make the superfecta

Rudeboyelvis

04-17-2007 08:16 PM

DrugS,

What has Sam P. done to endear himself to you in such a manner as to include him with three of the actual contenders? In my eye, the only thing he has proven is that he is a very nice allowance quality horse that can't get the job done in stakes company.

brianwspencer

04-17-2007 08:21 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DaHoss9698

You're crazy

Well, since Storm in May is the Derby winner, we can just stop all of these discussion right here and now. Get with the program DH.

Cajungator26

04-17-2007 08:25 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

I'll take under for $50K please.

Hmmm... how many horses can finish last? You gotta pick one. Storm in May or Teuflesberg?

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