Real Derby Contenders
 

Any way I try to look at the Kentucky Derby Contenders I keep coming up with a replay of the Breeders Cup 2yo race.
Street Sense, Circular Quay at the top with Scat Daddy, No Biz right behind and followed by a bunch of pretenders to complete the field.

IF you look at the Breeders Juvy Futurity at Keenland last fall, and the Breeders Cup Juvy at Churchill right after, you'll see the same 3 horses in the trifecta.
I think Street Sense, Great Hunter and Circular Quay all have a great shot at hitting the board again in some order....

i'd say there are 4 real serious contenders and i'd be shocked if the winner wasent one of these 4


great hunter
street sense
nobiz
hard spun

And 1 outsider

tiago

I don't post here much, but I guess it's called Derby trail so it's time to stick your nose in.

I take my contenders and then look at their running styles. I then try and see how the race will unfold based on what type of horses are going. I feel like the big guns are closers this year. CQ, SS, GH. However I fear the fact that you will have those three off pace, with Tiago somewhere in there, when they decide to make their moves I fear them getting caught up with eachother. If the rail does not open up for one of them, then wide they go. So I am dropping the closers this year because I fear the horse I pick might be the one getting jammed/caght. At this point, NoBiz will be my pick. He will be up close, and he has somewhat of a push button around the turn. I fear his strech run, and he might get caught, but at least I know around the turn he will be there and that is good enough for me. I just want my pick to be in the race and have a shot, and I am positive he will be up with the leaders around the turn.

nobiz is 100% my bet, its been like that since last year for me, but if its not nobiz i think it will be one of the other horses i mentioned.

I don't think there has been a real standout performance this year. It would be hard for me to discount any of these horses...

Street Sense
Great Hunter
Scat Daddy
Nobiz Like Shobiz
Curlin
Tiago
Hard Spun
Circular Quay
Notional
Any Given Saturday
Cowtown Cat

and to a lesser extent even horses like

Dominican
Officer Rocket
Deadly Dealer

...dependant on what they do tomorrow.

I have no clue at this point. It has been a pretty non-descript Derby trail to this pont for me. Nothing stands out. If Street Sense or Great Hunter or Curlin run a big one tomorrow, they may stand out as that is the last big prep day.

Only a few old-timers from the "old board" will know what I am talking about here but.....
The speculation about Derby horses can end NOW!! I have this great handicapping software that has made me trillions of dollars over the years and I have used it to determine the winner of the 2007 Kentucky Derby.
That winner is.......CONGAREE!!!!

Are we going to have the fortune teller again this year? What color is the saddle cloth and does the winners name have a geometric shape to it?:cool:

It's never to soon to look to the stars for the winner.

That was Euro that knew of that lady... don't think he's on here anymore. Drat!

P.S.

The winner of the derby is coming out of the 9 hole.

I remember that from last year. I remember the poster said she saw the winner and had something to do with red. Then someone came up that it was Barbaor because La Vile Rouge=Red. Can't wait for her pick again.

you are right. I will consult the old board and see if he's still in the loop. I have a friend that is into all that. She made me laugh when we were at the track and I asked her what her lucky # was? She paused and said she never asked.

Here is something to chew on.These are the real Derby contenders.
Cowtown cat:Has raced on 5 different tracks,ALL DIRT,won at 5.5f,6.5f,1 1/6,1 1/8.Beyers just keep going up in every race he won.
No Biz: Because PG 1985 likes him.Most likely the pace for the race.
Street Sense:Owns the highest Beyer,And the horse to beat.
And last but not least and you all are gonna crap your pants if you know me...............
Notional:This is the only California horse who has a shot.Ran 105 as a maiden,and ran a great race at GP in his first off the layoff.This is the horse who has the best chance to run them down.
Honorable Mention goes to Hard Spun.
These are MY contenders.

I won't bet any horse that has been off for 6 weeks +
let him beat me
I don't care

Street Sense has always been my horse. I can't go against but the one I will include is going to run 3rd in the Bluegrass and first in the Arkansas Derby

Curlin will have you singing a different tune tomorrow. Bet on it.

If Notional has the lungs, he will have a HUGE shot to win with his style, they are going to get real stupid on the front end this year ago and Notional has the progressing sheet that you like to see

LMAO!!

ah, thanks for the trip down memory lane!!

These are the horses I like for the derby as of now:

Scat Daddy
Notional
Great Hunter
Street Sense
Zanjero

T-bred Fan.. I am so jealous of your Avatar. I need a copy of it to use as my wallpaper.
Curlin will make me want to bet him ? He'll have to get past For You Reppo first. I honeslty don't like the post for Curlin. There.. I found the chink in his armour. My friend that just keeps winning like Going Ballistic of all things
go figure

I don't like Curlin's last work... there's my knock.

Shoot, they may not even be running tomorrow if the storm system that they're expecting moves through. Supposed to be nasty tomorrow...

thunderstorms down here caj..of course i'm southeast of the track, so who knows what they have or will get tomorrow. i've heard several forecasts already for this area.